Tropical Wave in Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 98L)

[Spacecoast]

The 12Z EPS mean is E of the 0Z though still with a few members in the Gulf and a few others at SE FL. Most of the rest recurve offshore the E US though a notable number still either hit or barely miss the NE US. The NE US may very well be the portion of the CONUS, if any, to watch the most for potential impact from this. Let’s see what the next couple of days of ensemble runs show as it is still too early to have a good feel for this, especially with no LLC yet.

bears watching....

[floridasun]

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/xq70/924/oQPoox.jpg [/url]

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/xq70/922/C06t3k.jpg [/url]

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/3346/Zu2Esj.gif [/url]

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/3038/JxZgGW.gif [/url]

this something new you came up for storm2k?

[mantis83]

fairly confident this will be a fish storm, based on all the modeling showing a well timed trough in the east.....

[Stratton23]

mantis83 youre talking about something that hasnt even formed yet, lots of what ifs right now, and the upper air pattern is absolutely not set in stone by any means, the Euro is still pretty close to the SE US, lots of things can change with that trough, faster to move out, slower, weaker etc. Confidence remains on the lower end right now

[weeniepatrol]

fairly confident this will be a fish storm, based on all the modeling showing a well timed trough in the east.....

Man, we get it you're bullish on recurvature

I'm more than okay with that; I just want ACE but you've said this like 10 times now.

[TomballEd]

I mention if it hits land anywhere, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas or Bermuda it isn't really a fish storm. It is not likely to be a mainland US threat (Puerto Rico and the USVI are part of the US), but it probably will hit land somewhere.

[Category5Kaiju]

fairly confident this will be a fish storm, based on all the modeling showing a well timed trough in the east.....

People in Antigua and Barbuda, US Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico: "And I took that personally"

[IsabelaWeather]

I mention if it hits land anywhere, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas or Bermuda it isn't really a fish storm. It is not likely to be a mainland US threat (Puerto Rico and the USVI are part of the US), but it probably will hit land somewhere.

Likely true but, I definitely don't think that is a given at this juncture.

['CaneFreak]

Agreed. Outside of the islands, areas from NC northward need to watch I think. The shape of the trough is important as is the upstream ridging. Will it cutoff? Split? Develop a negative tilt? These are all very good questions that are too soon to answer. Honestly, anything outside 5 days is a long shot. We learned our lesson from Florence, a storm that was supposed to turn out to sea and never did.

The 12Z EPS mean is E of the 0Z though still with a few members in the Gulf and a few others at SE FL. Most of the rest recurve offshore the E US though a notable number still either hit or barely miss the NE US. The NE US may very well be the portion of the CONUS, if any, to watch the most for potential impact from this. Let’s see what the next couple of days of ensemble runs show as it is still too early to have a good feel for this, especially with no LLC yet.

[chaser1]

Agreed. Outside of the islands, areas from NC northward need to watch I think. The shape of the trough is important as is the upstream ridging. Will it cutoff? Split? Develop a negative tilt? These are all very good questions that are too soon to answer. Honestly, anything outside 5 days is a long shot. We learned our lesson from Florence, a storm that was supposed to turn out to sea and never did.

The 12Z EPS mean is E of the 0Z though still with a few members in the Gulf and a few others at SE FL. Most of the rest recurve offshore the E US though a notable number still either hit or barely miss the NE US. The NE US may very well be the portion of the CONUS, if any, to watch the most for potential impact from this. Let’s see what the next couple of days of ensemble runs show as it is still too early to have a good feel for this, especially with no LLC yet.

All good points. Heck, forward speed of motion, a weak shallow system, low latitude genesis and/or ridging, and clearly land interaction are just additional factors aside from the steering set up that you've already outlined

[IcyTundra]

fairly confident this will be a fish storm, based on all the modeling showing a well timed trough in the east.....

In what world is modeling suggesting this is a fish storm? The Lesser and Greater Antilles are firmly in the crosshairs for this. This board is very US centric and just because the CONUS isn't likely to get hit doesn't mean it is a "fish" storm.

[Category5Kaiju]

fairly confident this will be a fish storm, based on all the modeling showing a well timed trough in the east.....

In what world is modeling suggesting this is a fish storm? The Lesser and Greater Antilles are firmly in the crosshairs for this. This board is very US centric and just because the CONUS isn't likely to get hit doesn't mean it is a "fish" storm.

As another poster pointed out, not all troughs are even the same. Given the right setup, as far as I know, this could end up being an issue for Canada or the CONUS north of the Carolinas.

[IcyTundra]

fairly confident this will be a fish storm, based on all the modeling showing a well timed trough in the east.....

In what world is modeling suggesting this is a fish storm? The Lesser and Greater Antilles are firmly in the crosshairs for this. This board is very US centric and just because the CONUS isn't likely to get hit doesn't mean it is a "fish" storm.

As another poster pointed out, not all troughs are even the same. Given the right setup, as far as I know, this could end up being an issue for Canada or the CONUS north of the Carolinas.

I agree that the CONUS isn't out of the woods yet obviously. Most modeling suggests it will recurve before the CONUS but we are talking about 10+ day model runs and a lot can change.

[Jr0d]

I agree that the CONUS isn't out of the woods yet obviously. Most modeling suggests it will recurve before the CONUS but we are talking about 10+ day model runs and a lot can change.

I would see the CONUS is probably out of the woods but far from certain..the trough could be much weaker, the storm weaker and miss the connection or even not materialize at all .

If the storm misses the trough in about 10 days, then high pressure fills in forcing the storm West into the CONUS. Unlikely scenario right now but a possibility.

[Stratton23]

After analyzing the 18z GFS UPPER air pattern im starting to think it could be a very close call for the SE US coast up to the NE US, the trough becomes more cut off and actually starts to retrograde to the south west some what, that allows ridging to build to the north and east, its not as easy of a recurve though still avoids US on this run, SE Us could definitely be in play if the trough keeps on retrograding more, as the ridge would be allow to build in more from the east

[aspen]

Today’s 18z GFS has a rapidly developing, very tiny vortex just like yesterday’s 18z run. Probably bogus, but if it happens then that adds an additional bit of unpredictability to the intensity forecast as it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

[weeniepatrol]

I know this isn't going to verify, but what an INCREDIBLE modeled 200mb pattern.

[Stratton23]

To add to the uncertainty, their is still ensemble guidance that suggests this wave never feels the influence of the trough to its north over the E. US, while unlikely, a track through the caribbean and into the yucatan channel is also a possibility with this one , a lot can change in the upper air pattern in 10 days

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on
Tropical Depression Debby, located inland over North Carolina.
Future advisories on Debby will be issued by the National Weather
Service Weather Prediction Center.

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
A tropical wave located over the tropical Atlantic several hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development
of the wave should be slow to occur during the next couple of days
while it moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
Afterwards, conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form while it
approaches the Lesser Antilles by early next week. The system is
then forecast to move generally west-northwestward and could
approach the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[WaveBreaking]

I know this isn't going to verify, but what an INCREDIBLE modeled 200mb pattern.

https://i.imgur.com/2t13DN0.png

Euro also shows a similar 200mb pattern complete with dual-channel outflow (although a modeled nearby ULL would probably inhibit intensification somewhat). Good thing this is 10 days out and not anytime sooner.