Tropical Wave in Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 98L)

[Weathertracker96]

To add to the uncertainty, their is still ensemble guidance that suggests this wave never feels the influence of the trough to its north over the E. US, while unlikely, a track through the caribbean and into the yucatan channel is also a possibility with this one , a lot can change in the upper air pattern in 10 days

Thanks for pointing that out. I was looking at the ensembles and when I saw the southern one I was wondering if that was the same system. You're right about a lot can change.

[aspen]

I know this isn't going to verify, but what an INCREDIBLE modeled 200mb pattern.

https://i.imgur.com/2t13DN0.png

If that does verify, the ceiling for future Ernesto would be insane (barring any EWRCs or sneaky mid-level shear). Probably at least a Cat 4.

[weeniepatrol]

I know this isn't going to verify, but what an INCREDIBLE modeled 200mb pattern.

https://i.imgur.com/2t13DN0.png

If that does verify, the ceiling for future Ernesto would be insane (barring any EWRCs or sneaky mid-level shear). Probably at least a Cat 4.

Exactly. Verbatim that amount of mass evacuation of air would support C5 pressures lol. Good thing it's 200-h out

[weeniepatrol]

8 August 8pm update:

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
A tropical wave located over the tropical Atlantic several hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development
of the wave should be slow to occur during the next couple of days
while it moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
Afterwards, conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form while it
approaches the Lesser Antilles by early next week. The system is
then forecast to move generally west-northwestward and could
approach the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 August 8pm update:

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
A tropical wave located over the tropical Atlantic several hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development
of the wave should be slow to occur during the next couple of days
while it moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
Afterwards, conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form while it
approaches the Lesser Antilles by early next week. The system is
then forecast to move generally west-northwestward and could
approach the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/OnA3Prf.png

I posted it earlier.

[cycloneye]

18z European.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1821673078163648927

[weeniepatrol]

I posted it earlier.

Woops.

In that case, here's 18z EPS



Definitely not looking like a fish.

[cycloneye]

There is good news before the wave gets a invest tag and is that Tropical Tidbits has a meso floater for the area.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[LarryWx]

Good news on the 0Z UKMET, which has this for the first time: at the end it is moving N at 73W implying it would very likely miss the CONUS on this run. Please keep this far away!

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 22.5N 73.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.08.2024 168 23.1N 73.2W 1008 31

[LarryWx]

0Z GFS: recurves the AEW E of the US E coast (72-3W)

[Pas_Bon]

I don’t think this will be a Gulf threat at all. Still early, but I’d be shocked if it came into the Gulf.

[IcyTundra]

Big uptick in the 0Z GEFS. More members showing development and many of the members are quite strong.

[cheezyWXguy]

I don’t think this will be a Gulf threat at all. Still early, but I’d be shocked if it came into the Gulf.

Seems unlikely but too early to fully rule out. East coast is more of a possibility but who knows this far out. It is notable how much the models build high pressure back across the Atlantic as this storm exits though. If anything forms behind it, there would probably be better chance of it making it all the way across the pond

[Stratton23]

Considerable uncertainty in the 00z GEFS, thats why this is far from a lock from being a fish storm, and that operational model tracks mean absolutely nothing right now

[Stratton23]

More GEFS members are getting very close to florida fwiw

[Teban54]

0z GFS (operational) shows a Nova Scotia landfall, and I'm surprised nobody has mentioned it yet. Once again shows everyone on the eastern seaboard has reasons to watch the storm. A bit weaker than last run, though.

[LarryWx]

More GEFS members are getting very close to florida fwiw

The mean of the 0Z GEFS is a bit further west than most of the recent runs implying a higher chance for a CONUS hit than those runs.

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro: heading N at 240 at 40N, 67W aiming toward E ME, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia

[AxaltaRacing24]

More GEFS members are getting very close to florida fwiw

The mean of the 0Z GEFS is a bit further west than most of the recent runs implying a higher chance for a CONUS hit than those runs.

I mean, as somebody who lives in South Florida, I don’t necessary see signs that it’ll definitely be us. HOWEVER, to rule us (or any of the SEUS) out, when the setup is complex, along with ensembles pointing right at us, is simply irresponsible. Any of us who have been on this site since 2016 should know better than to do that.