Tropical Wave in Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 98L)

[N2FSU]

6z GFS




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[chaser1]

The 6zGFS shows a cat 3 impact to OBX this run

Yep, saw that too! I was surprised to see the shift west and took a look at the 500mb. Basically, (future) Ernesto packed well for his oceanic cruise and even brought his own private high-pressure ridge that travels west with him LOL. Not that common but we've seen that happen before.

[chaser1]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Debby, located inland over the Mid-Atlantic region.

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles to the west-southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the tropical Atlantic. Any
development of the wave should be slow to occur during the next
couple of days while it moves westward across the central tropical
Atlantic. Afterwards, conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development while the wave moves west-northwestward,
and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the
system approaches the Lesser Antilles. The system is then forecast
to continue moving generally west-northwestward and could approach
the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

https://i.postimg.cc/DwmHM6fg/two-atl-7d0.png

There's clear rotation but whether an ITCZ eddy or what NHC is eyeing, I couldn't say. Check out Tropical Tidbits Satellite page and select Goes 16 Sector 1, then increase speed to see rotation at 11N and 25W

[boca]

Is the 6z GFS run a garbage run or that future Ernesto gets so strong they create their own environment. As of last night we are still dealing with a east coast trough.

[Tekken_Guy]

Is the 6z GFS run a garbage run or that future Ernesto gets so strong they create their own environment. As of last night we are still dealing with a east coast trough.

There’s no trough on the 6z GFS and Ernesto goes much further west before making the turn.

[chaser1]

Is the 6z GFS run a garbage run or that future Ernesto gets so strong they create their own environment. As of last night we are still dealing with a east coast trough.

Rather than the storm rounding the southwest side of the mid-level ridge, GFS has the mid-level "bubble high" moving west along at a similar pace. Essentially, high pressure from the US builds underneath the Westerlies and the Atlantic high-pressure ridge builds westward. Still a weakness but per the 06Z, one that steers the storm into the Outer Banks.

[Tekken_Guy]

How likely is NJ to get a hit?

[wxman57]

There's clear rotation but whether an ITCZ eddy or what NHC is eyeing, I couldn't say. Check out Tropical Tidbits Satellite page and select Goes 16 Sector 1, then increase speed to see rotation at 11N and 25W

The primary wave axis is along 35-36W, well west of this small rotation.

[wxman57]

How likely is NJ to get a hit?

That depends on how you define "hit". A direct impact by the center would be very unlikely, but not impossible. Chances of a storm brushing the coast and you getting some outer bands are higher than a direct hit, but maybe still not "high". It all depends on where this potential storm develops. The earlier it develops, the earlier it will recurve away from the east coast. Later development increases the risk of an impact along the east coast.

[Andrewcane86]

How likely is NJ to get a hit?

That depends on how you define "hit". A direct impact by the center would be very unlikely, but not impossible. Chances of a storm brushing the coast and you getting some outer bands are higher than a direct hit, but maybe still not "high". It all depends on where this potential storm develops. The earlier it develops, the earlier it will recurve away from the east coast. Later development increases the risk of an impact along the east coast.

Current thoughts on a potential SEFL impact?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[TomballEd]

I have read the 6Z is the least accurate of the 4 daily runs. Not only does it not have balloon soundings, but the amount of aircraft ACCARs data is lower than 18Z.

[TomballEd]

How likely is NJ to get a hit?

That depends on how you define "hit". A direct impact by the center would be very unlikely, but not impossible. Chances of a storm brushing the coast and you getting some outer bands are higher than a direct hit, but maybe still not "high". It all depends on where this potential storm develops. The earlier it develops, the earlier it will recurve away from the east coast. Later development increases the risk of an impact along the east coast.

Current thoughts on a potential SEFL impact?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

There are a few outliers on the ensemble, especially on the Euro ensembles, or, at this time it looks like SFL would be spared. But over a week away.

[BobHarlem]

Best summary, Most likely to stay offshore of the mainland US, Caribbean Islands need to watch closely. Bahamas maybe, and also Bermuda Maybe. If it struggles to develop the further west it'll go, if it strengthens early more likely to recurve early. S Florida/Gulf is very improbable with this current setup, but not impossible. 6z gfs is an outlier right now, 6z Euro Ensembles are to the right of 0z. My own idea is on a recurve right now with a toss up if it gets into the Bahamas or not (or Turks and Caicos) if that happens Bermuda needs to watch it.

[Teban54]

6z GFS's solution with the extension of the UL ridge isn't totally wonky: ECMWF has been showing similar solutions for about 3 full runs now.

[Tekken_Guy]

6z GFS's solution with the extension of the UL ridge isn't totally wonky: ECMWF has been showing similar solutions for about 3 full runs now.

00z on the 8th is the only time the Euro ever brings it that far west. It recurves early in the other models.

[cheezyWXguy]

6z GFS's solution with the extension of the UL ridge isn't totally wonky: ECMWF has been showing similar solutions for about 3 full runs now.

00z on the 8th is the only time the Euro ever brings it that far west. It recurves early in the other models.

Not quite, the 12z had a similar trajectory, albeit a little further east. The 00z this morning finished with it hooking west toward the northeast US/Canada

[TomballEd]

6Z GEFS has four Gulf 'leakers', they get 80*W before developing so they miss the trough. A couple of late bloomers try to get to Florida. Comment above about how fast the wave develops does seem rather important. Beyond that, 5 to 10 day 500 mb height forecasts can change a little.

[Spacecoast]

0z EPS Trop Storm Probabilty:

[LarryWx]

12Z ICON: recurve from SE Bahamas at 71-2W.

[skyline385]

With how favorable the conditions are near the islands on the models and especially after what we saw with Beryl, I have doubts that this struggles to be a TS before it reaches PR. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a TS before PR.