Tropical Wave in Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 98L)

[TomballEd]

With how favorable the conditions are near the islands on the models and especially after what we saw with Beryl, I have doubts that this struggles to be a TS before it reaches PR. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a TS before PR.

Just checking, satellite looks much better than yesterday. Early formation increases the chances that no island in the Caribbean is affected and that CONUS landfall is less likely.

[aspen]

12z GFS is coming in further south. Looks like it’s gonna go right through The Shredder this run.

[Stormlover70]

We all need a break after Beryl and Debby....

[SFLcane]

Nice..

[Nimbus]

Less dry than it was for Beryl and Debbie so hoping we don't get an Andrew/Charley style trough split scenario.

[cheezyWXguy]

I don’t really see a reason why it is slower to develop on the 12z than the 6z, so I don’t see a reason to buy the sw shift in the shorter term unless someone sees something I don’t. Otherwise, initial trough looks flatter and more progressive before the second lobe comes down and picks it up. That part seems as plausible as any other run, would make an east coast hit more likely if it verified

[Travorum]

12Z GFS landfall near Wilmington NC

[weeniepatrol]

[LarryWx]

12Z CMC: recurve E of Bermuda

12Z UKMET: forms NE of SE Bahamas moving N but shortly after turns NW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 23.1N 71.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.08.2024 156 23.9N 71.7W 1007 37
1200UTC 16.08.2024 168 24.7N 72.5W 1005 36

[BobHarlem]

Well today's 12z Canadian vs 12z GFS is kind of an extreme example of stronger right weaker left.

[IsabelaWeather]

Just checking, satellite looks much better than yesterday. Early formation increases the chances that no island in the Caribbean is affected and that CONUS landfall is less likely.
https://media.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExc3FjczBmMDVmODV3aHJtMHY2dmxkaXJha25kMnUybThncjB5MnppdyZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/bJ8kUh0MwAK8511r4e/giphy.gif

What model shows that? Earlier development will be good for the CONUS, but I don't see how this storm safely misses the islands whether weak or strong. Theres not really anything to pick it up until ~72W

EDIT: CMC does but it appears to be the only one I have checked that does that. Icon, GFS, Euro and ensembles take the storm on a WNW track.

[aspen]

12z CMC develops quickly and recurves sooner. Looks like it hits a wall at 60W, as it immediately turns to the north and doesn’t get much further west.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z gefs significantly more tightly clustered than 6z through hour 138, tracks near PR and DR

Edit: through hour 156 it maintains the 12z gfs’ idea of a flatter and more progressive trough. Looks like a large cluster of members are setting up in the southern Bahamas to track near the east coast like the op

[skyline385]

Deleted

[cycloneye]

The squadron will be out there on Monday.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST IN SUSPECT
AREA EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14.0N 54.0W FOR 12/1200Z.

[SouthFLTropics]

That's the 00z Euro

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The long-range models have been all over the place with this one: SE Mass landfall (Euro control run yesterday), today we have Nova Scotia, The Carolinas & Newfoundland as possible landfalls. Anyone claiming this is a 100% OTS lock has no idea what they are talking about. It is far too early to tell. Stay tuned folks.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro recurves up 70W and then at 240 heading in direction of SE Canada.

[cycloneye]

The long-range models have been all over the place with this one: SE Mass landfall (Euro control run yesterday), today we have Nova Scotia, The Carolinas & Newfoundland as possible landfalls. Anyone claiming this is a 100% OTS lock has no idea what they are talking about. It is far too early to tell. Stay tuned folks.

Until there is a invest, there is a low pressure and recon data from monday, the models will do better from that point.

[cycloneye]

Nothing new at 2 PM.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Debby, located inland over the northeastern United States.

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well
to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands over the tropical
Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave. Any development of the
wave should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it
moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic. Conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while the system approaches and then moves near or
over the Lesser Antilles. The system is forecast to continue moving
generally west-northwestward and could approach portions of the
Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart