Teban54 wrote:aspen wrote:There have been a lot of cases of MDR systems with a modeled “sibling” right behind it that either doesn’t form (Elsa ‘21, Beryl ‘24) or falls far below model expectations (Bret and Cindy ‘23).
I think Cindy 2023 actually outperformed the models. Most runs initially didn't even have it form at all until just a few days before it actually did, while they had a much longer lead time for Bret.
Now, if you're talking about how Cindy's formation limited Bret from reaching its ceiling, that may be more plausible. But Bret also had to deal with June climo (as with all other systems you mentioned) in an El Nino year, which is very different from what we have now.
I thought some models made Cindy a C1. I guess I was mistaken. Maybe I’m getting the Bret/Cindy combo confused with something else.
I do clearly remember that a lot were turning Bret into a strong hurricane, and it was yet another consecutive June/July MDR storm that fell below aggressive model estimates thanks to climo, after Gonzalo ‘20, Elsa’21, and Bonnie ‘22. Beryl was the only one this decade that actually met — and exceeded — those trigger-happy models showing RI into a major in the western MDR. Everything else was fairly normal intensity for that time of year.
