Tropical Wave in Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 98L)

[mantis83]

recurve safely away from the us coast seems more and more likely.......

[Category5Kaiju]

recurve safely away from the us coast seems more and more likely.......

North Carolina: “And I took that personally”

[Andrewcane86]

recurve safely away from the us coast seems more and more likely.......

Latest GFS would like a word.


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[NDG]

Just like we have seen so far this season I would recommend not to trust the models past their 96/120 hr forecast or at least until we have an actual system form.
Just like I told Andy Hazelton with Debby anything is possible past the 120 hr models' forecast range.

[TomballEd]

Most GFS ensembles are E of the op. Again, without being able to see the control run of the ensemble, I don't know if that means minute changes to initial conditions, or lower ensemble member resolution that has the GEFS mostly E of the op.

[sasha_B]

recurve safely away from the us coast seems more and more likely.......

"Safely" unless you're in Puerto Rico, or Hispaniola, or the Leeward Islands, or the Bahamas. Or Atlantic Canada. And that's setting aside the fact that some deterministic runs, including the most recent GFS, still show potential continental US impacts, to the Outer Banks or New England. In fact, AFAICT only the CMC shows recurvature prior to any land impacts. I'm no professional but I feel like the best approach to areas of interest like this early in development is to watch closely and not write off possibilities prematurely - speculating that this one's "safe" minimises the risks that any and all tropical systems pose until they've dissipated.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I've been offline for a couple of days due to family emergency, but looking at this for the first time...I have a couple of observations.
1. If you get that trough split...that is a classic sign for a New England hit where the cut off low pulls in the tropical feature
2. Models are gonna model and what they say this run will not be the same as next run. That will happen for the next several days out.
3. The MJO modeling keeps correcting to higher amplitude phases 1,2 and 3 (which it tends to almost always do this time of year) which are the GoGo phases for Atlantic hurricanes with a US hit.
4. I'm not seeing an OTS currently, but that could change.
5. There will probably be something right on the heals of this feature as the Atlantic will be just about as favorable as it can get...so strap in...gonna be a wild ride.

[TomballEd]

Looking at the ensemble mean height, US landfall looks very unlikely. Standard caveat on exact position of the trough, strength of the ridge, and how fast this develops. Wildcard, impossible to tell, is which, if any, of the Greater Antilles the system makes landfall.

16 years ago, but Hurricane Ike NHC forecast was out to sea early, then a slow adjustment closer and closer to ECUSA, then finally a forecast from Turks and Caicos to Cuba. Models have been approved, but that is not like the days of NGM and AVN.

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan's take.

A new tropical wave west of Africa will be monitored for development next week as it tracks towards the Lesser Antilles in a favorable environment. The disturbance is currently broad and likely to organize only gradually during the weekend, but a tropical storm could form after that, with a significant fraction of GEFS and EPS ensemble members supporting that outcome. Arrival in the Lesser Antilles is expected Monday or Tuesday, but it's too early to know what impacts the system may bring, as we don't have a well-defined storm yet.

It's also too early to speculate much on the system's potential long-term track beyond the Lesser Antilles. The western Atlantic is forecast to be occupied by an upper-level longwave trough next week, meaning that the potential for this disturbance to threaten the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and North America will be highly sensitive to how far north the system tracks near the eastern Caribbean. As always, greater clarity will come once a storm actually forms, if one indeed does.

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1821975112385753493

[cheezyWXguy]

recurve safely away from the us coast seems more and more likely.......

Can you give your reasoning for this?

[Category5Kaiju]

recurve safely away from the us coast seems more and more likely.......

Can you give your reasoning for this?

For some reason that specific user literally comments nothing but “oh the storm is going OTS.” Like, the same thing was said when Debby happened iirc. Imho doesn’t really add anything meaningful or significant to the overall discussion.

[IsabelaWeather]

recurve safely away from the us coast seems more and more likely.......

Can you give your reasoning for this?

For some reason that specific user literally comments nothing but “oh the storm is going OTS.” Like, the same thing was said when Debby happened iirc. Imho doesn’t really add anything meaningful or significant to the overall discussion.

Happened to most storms last year, too.

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS: more spread out than 0Z but with mean path a little to the left of 0Z. The operational was fairly close to the EPS mean path. There’s still very little in the Gulf, a few at or near SE FL, some that hit further up the US E coast, and the majority still staying offshore the E US. A decent % of those, however, later hit SE Canada. Still a long way to go and lots of uncertainty this far out.

[boca]

I would not say OTS yet because the trough that is expected to be across the eastern US can be weaker than forecast and the atmosphere is always changing so Florida can possibly be in play as well. The Bermuda High can build in quicker as well.

[mantis83]

recurve safely away from the us coast seems more and more likely.......

Can you give your reasoning for this?

euro and cmc have the ridge that has been dominating the west atlantic all summer moving east, being replaced by troughing. the gfs also has this same scenario. gfs has the storm weaker and further south while also rebuilding the ridge back west more than the other models.as others have pointed out, gfs ensembles are east of op........

the overall pattern to me screams recurve

[LarryWx]

recurve safely away from the us coast seems more and more likely.......

"Safely" unless you're in Puerto Rico, or Hispaniola, or the Leeward Islands, or the Bahamas. Or Atlantic Canada. And that's setting aside the fact that some deterministic runs, including the most recent GFS, still show potential continental US impacts, to the Outer Banks or New England. In fact, AFAICT only the CMC shows recurvature prior to any land impacts. I'm no professional but I feel like the best approach to areas of interest like this early in development is to watch closely and not write off possibilities prematurely - speculating that this one's "safe" minimises the risks that any and all tropical systems pose until they've dissipated.

In all fairness, mantis83 didn’t actually “write-off” a CONUS threat but instead is saying the threat is low and lowering, which is that poster’s opinion and one he/she’s entitled to voice. If mantis had said the CONUS is definitely not going to be hit, that would be writing it off and even I’d question something that strong this far out. But he didn’t.

[boca]

recurve safely away from the us coast seems more and more likely.......

Can you give your reasoning for this?

euro and cmc have the ridge that has been dominating the west atlantic all summer moving east, being replaced by troughing. the gfs also has this same scenario. gfs has the storm weaker and further south while also rebuilding the ridge back west more than the other models.as others have pointed out, gfs ensembles are east of op........

the overall pattern to me screams recurve

The Bermuda high has been stronger this year that’s why I’m just saying things can change.

[skyline385]

12z EPS, ensembles starting to consolidate slightly

[aspen]

12z EPS, ensembles starting to consolidate slightly

https://i.imgur.com/ciMRH9t.png

Look at that one ensemble member has a Cat 1/2 hit in the NYC area. Thankfully it’s an outlier for now.

[cheezyWXguy]

recurve safely away from the us coast seems more and more likely.......

Can you give your reasoning for this?

euro and cmc have the ridge that has been dominating the west atlantic all summer moving east, being replaced by troughing. the gfs also has this same scenario. gfs has the storm weaker and further south while also rebuilding the ridge back west more than the other models.as others have pointed out, gfs ensembles are east of op........

the overall pattern to me screams recurve

First of all, I appreciate you giving some reasoning to back up your case. You’ve gotten a fair bit of flack for your posts (I’m pretty sure from myself as well) for making assertions that most would claim don’t have sufficient evidence to back up that degree of confidence. I think posts like this one would do better at keeping responses like that at bay.

That said, I do disagree with your original post that a recurve looks “more and more likely”. I think you’re right if you say a recurve is more likely in general, as that outcome has a higher statistical likelihood by default without even looking at models. However, I don’t think the results of the 12z model suite have increased the likelihood beyond what it was prior.

For example at time of your post, the gfs had just shifted west and while we agree that this shift may be due to the gfs erroneously keeping it weaker in the short term, it’s probably also due to the flatter and more progressive nature of the trough, which lifts out faster and allows more ridging to build in. This is also observed in the 12z gefs, which results in a little tighter clustering of the members toward the western side of the envelope. But yes, plenty still recurve, and there are other ops like the cmc that show this as well. The euro is kind of a mixed bag, as the last several 240hr runs take the storm on approach to the coast, but vary on approach each time and don’t go far enough out to see the end result.

I think what I personally take issue with is that there seems to be no acknowledgment of the evidence that runs counter to your argument. There is some, and while it’s a minority among the forecast tools available, it still does warrant some consideration since we are still so far out. If you want to discard it, so be it, but people are probably going to ask why you are so confident in doing so. Not acknowledging the existing uncertainty gives the impression that you’re hoping the storm away rather than giving a good faith evaluation of the setup.