ATL: ERNESTO - Models

[gatorcane]

06Z TVCN consensus track is north of Puerco Rico and the islands with a fairly sharp recurve:

[aspen]

6z HWRF is slower to develop (takes until 66-72hrs out) and goes south of the Virgin Islands. Much more in-line with the GFS and Euro’s short-term (<5d) track and evolution.

[cycloneye]

Cat 1 crossing PR from HWRF.

[cycloneye]

[hurricaneCW]

This will get close to the islands and PR at least followed by a sharp recurve OTS

Lots of western Atlantic troughing to keep the US safe

[aspen]

HMON develops 98L in only about 48 hours, which gets it stronger earlier and allows it to recurve sooner. Bermuda might be under threat in such a scenario.

HAFS-A/B are having a very hard time with 98L. Both struggle to develop it and only have a marginal TS passing through the northwestern Caribbean islands.

Even though the HWRF is on the leftmost side of the guidance envelope, that track should thread the needle between the US and Bermuda, possibly putting Atlantic Canada at risk. Additionally, 98L getting further west puts it over warmer SSTs with a higher ceiling of the system’s structure can recover after Puerto Rico. Its modeled UL environment for 98L by the end of the run looks quite good.

[cheezyWXguy]

If the trough evolution plays out the way the latest gfs and euro show, the chances of an east coast hit go down significantly from yesterday. Even Canada’s chances decrease, though are probably a little higher than the US’s. Since it’s still so early this isn’t a sure thing though.

[BobHarlem]

6z Euro Ensembles, right shift from 0z.


Biggest questions, if it gets into the Turks and Caicos, how much into the Islands, and Bermuda. Any direct US Mainland impact looks terribly unlikely at least.

[underthwx]

Cat 1 crossing PR from HWRF.

https://i.imgur.com/foq5eKB.gif

Good morning Luis......I sure do hope that yall will not experience this as a hurricane....that goes without saying it....but I have a question....from what I read here...this system may recurve?...what is the reason for this?....the red highlighted area looks to be close to Florida....thanks for any light u can shed on this....have a great day!...

[cycloneye]

Cat 1 crossing PR from HWRF.

https://i.imgur.com/foq5eKB.gif

Good morning Luis......I sure do hope that yall will not experience this as a hurricane....that goes without saying it....but I have a question....from what I read here...this system may recurve?...what is the reason for this?....the red highlighted area looks to be close to Florida....thanks for any light u can shed on this....have a great day!...

Good morning. There may be an upper trough near the east coast of U.S that may cause it to recurve but if that happens, the question is how large it may be, or have a more closer route to the coast and reach Atlantic Canada.

[aspen]

12z GFS has genesis between Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning. Slides well south of the Virgin Islands and PR, makes landfall in the DR with a pressure in the upper 960s.

ICON is a clear, sharp recurve that slides east of Bermuda.

[aspen]

12z GFS (plus previous runs) is basically just Fiona ‘22 redux. Like Fiona, it does due west into the NE Caribbean before turning north into Hispaniola and passing between the CONUS and Bermuda.

12z CMC is much closer to an Earl ‘22-esqe track. A hair north of the NE Caribbean islands, recurving just east of Bermuda.

12z ICON is right in the middle: goes through the NE islands and Hispaniola, recurves between the GFS and CMC.

[cheezyWXguy]

The 12z gfs is close to being a very bad run for the ne US. That trough evolution, but further southwest would slingshot it into the coast. Not a particularly likely outcome, and I feel like the globals always show a run or two like this for every recurving storm, but still something to watch for.

[OuterBanker]

Luis may have to deal with a hurricane. All models are showing a recurve around 70w.

I call it a field goal hurricane. Typical route around 70 w. Between Hatteras and Bermuda Quite common.

Strong trough and a weaker Bermuda high. Typical east coast force field.

Unlike Debby where models were all over the place. Ernesto pretty close to set in stone.

[Teban54]

GFS 06/18z runs are considerably stronger than 00/12z runs, I wouldn't trust it too much.

12z GFS today: Hold my beer

[OuterBanker]

Luis may have to deal with a hurricane. All models are showing a recurve around 70w.

I call it a field goal hurricane. Typical route around 70 w. Between Hatteras and Bermuda Quite common.

Strong trough and a weaker Bermuda high. Typical east coast force field.

Unlike Debby where models were all over the place. Ernesto pretty close to set in stone.

[Blown Away]

Pretty significant SW shift in many of the GEFS in the 12z run. Many going through PR and Hispaniola before making the turn.

[Tekken_Guy]

The 12z gfs is close to being a very bad run for the ne US. That trough evolution, but further southwest would slingshot it into the coast. Not a particularly likely outcome, and I feel like the globals always show a run or two like this for every recurving storm, but still something to watch for.

Is NYC still in play, or is it mostly New England at this point?

[LarryWx]

12Z UK: recurve 69W; turns NW at 28N

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 20.8N 68.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.08.2024 108 20.8N 68.7W 1009 32
1200UTC 15.08.2024 120 24.0N 68.7W 1008 40
0000UTC 16.08.2024 132 25.4N 68.4W 1005 48
1200UTC 16.08.2024 144 26.7N 67.5W 1003 44
0000UTC 17.08.2024 156 28.0N 67.2W 1001 44
1200UTC 17.08.2024 168 28.7N 67.9W 1001 41

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro: TS E PR, recurve 67W, just SE of Berm. as cat 2