ATL: ERNESTO - Models

[TomballEd]

It isn't completely out to see if it hits land. GFS has a Cat 1 or Cat 2 hitting Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, A hurricane of any strength crossing Hispaniola will cause major flooding in both nations. Haiti, especially, with mountains stripped of trees and a government that isn't in full control, could suffer badly.

[crownweather]

48 hour 18Z GFS model track a bit further south than the 12Z forecast. Wonder if this will be a continuing theme.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[aspen]

18z GFS is odd. Based on the 850mb vorticity plot, it looks like the tough connects with 98L while it’s still south of 30N. It also gets pivoted into a rare Maine landfall. East coast impacts are still not off the table.

[Teban54]

18z GFS is odd. Based on the 850mb vorticity plot, it looks like the tough connects with 98L while it’s still south of 30N. It also gets pivoted into a rare Maine landfall. East coast impacts are still not off the table.

A track like this also has potential to create major surge issues in Massachusetts Bay, even without a direct landfall.

[Tekken_Guy]

18z GFS is odd. Based on the 850mb vorticity plot, it looks like the tough connects with 98L while it’s still south of 30N. It also gets pivoted into a rare Maine landfall. East coast impacts are still not off the table.

As of right now New England and Atlantic Canada seem the most at risk for an East Coast hit. NYC area and south look safer for now if it recurves before Cuba.

[cheezyWXguy]

From what I can tell it looks like the 18z gefs has a little fewer escapees. Very large spread from the gulf to ots continues though

[Tekken_Guy]

From what I can tell it looks like the 18z gefs has a little fewer escapees. Very large spread from the gulf to ots continues though

How does NY/NJ fare?

[floridasun]

when new gfs,geps come out?

[Spacecoast]

when new gfs,geps come out?

18z GEFS:

[floridasun]

when new gfs,geps come out?

18z GEFS:

https://i.ibb.co/T1d744J/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh54-246.gif

ok ty look like more west on this run for this one

[floridasun]

when new gfs,geps come out?

18z GEFS:

https://i.ibb.co/T1d744J/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh54-246.gif

only one out now

[Blown Away]

18z GEFS have likely recurve, but each run has more going over GA, Bahamas, and westward.

[Category5Kaiju]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/767zTXQK/IMG-8159.jpg [/url]

18z GEFS have likely recurve, but each run has more going over GA, Bahamas, and westward.

It's been trending that way for sure. Iirc, there were more members that just outright missed the islands even several days ago. Gotta see if the GEFS strike gold this time or not

[Jr0d]

The Ensemble Member Pressure Center map in my amateur opinion is one of the better maps to look out, especially this early and before we have a named system.

Obviously there is uncertainty with when and if the storm will turn north from a future trough. One scenario I have not seen mention yet is a path over Hispaniola where the mountains significantly weaken the storm, making it shallower and less susceptible to the trough's influence.

It is concerning to see a few Ensembles taking it much further west. Obviously any significant storm impacting Haiti is going to cause a great deal of suffering, usually more so with heavy rains, flooding and landslides that high winds so hopefully that scenario does not pan out.

Ideally this misses the Lesser Antilles to north and becomes the first real surf maker of the season for the East Coast.

[gatorcane]

The 18Z GFS has lows in the mid 50s as far south as western areas of North Carolina with widespread 50s across West Virgina, Pennsylvania and the Northeast next weekend, reminiscent of early fall. That is quite a trough for this time of year and if it is really this strong would be able to turn the cyclone north quite easily well offshore the US.

500MB map, with the anomalously strong eastern CONUS trough:

[Nuno]

The 18Z GFS has lows in the mid 50s as far south as western areas of North Carolina with widespread 50s across West Virgina, Pennsylvania and the Northeast next weekend, reminiscent of early fall. That is quite a trough for this time of year and if it is really this strong would be able to turn the cyclone north quite easily well offshore the US.

500MB map, with the anomalously strong eastern CONUS trough:

https://i.postimg.cc/nrV9XZ81/gfs-z500a-Norm-us-27.png

Maybe it paves the way for a weakness to linger and send this wave train into the NATL

[cycloneye]

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF goes WNW through the GA’s and finishes in the SE Bahamas as a solid Cat 1.

[floridasun]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/6585YzXc/hwrf-ref-98-L-fh3-126.gif [/url]

18z HWRF goes WNW through the GA’s and finishes in the SE Bahamas as a solid Cat 1.

dont show pass 126 hours dont know ifn keep going into bahamas or go north out to sea or move north west toward Carolina?

[LarryWx]

0Z ICON: quite a bit closer to US E coast vs 12Z run going N along 70W