ATL: ERNESTO - Models

['CaneFreak]

0Z ICON: quite a bit closer to US E coast vs 12Z run going N along 70W

Yeah and did you see that shortwave over the Great Lakes? Looks like it was not moving much at the end of the run. Maybe a trough capture of a TC scenario if we had a run that went beyond 180 hrs? Also notice at the end of the run how much farther east that trough in the North Atlantic is compared to 12Z? Things that make you go hmmmmm

[skyline385]

0Z ICON shifts south while 0Z GFS shifts north, both seem to be meeting in the middle and this probably wont be good for PR if current trends continue

[Tekken_Guy]

0Z ICON shifts south while 0Z GFS shifts north, both seem to be meeting in the middle and this probably wont be good for PR if current trends continue

https://i.imgur.com/EBDqPJ3.png

That’s a good sign for the CONUS, since the models that put it at risk had the storm hit Hispaniola instead.

['CaneFreak]

0Z ICON: quite a bit closer to US E coast vs 12Z run going N along 70W

Yeah and did you see that shortwave over the Great Lakes? Looks like it was not moving much at the end of the run. Maybe a trough capture of a TC scenario if we had a run that went beyond 180 hrs? Also notice at the end of the run how much farther east that trough in the North Atlantic is compared to 12Z? Things that make you go hmmmmm

Wow. It’s like instant replay. The 0Z GFS and 0Z ICON look very similar through 180 hours with that trough over the Great Lakes. This should be interesting.

[Xyls]

Watching this from Atlantic Canada and wondering if this could be a redux of Fiona. Seems too soon to say at the moment but the threat is there that it does a Puerto Rico strike and then beelines at Atlantic Canada based on some of these models.

['CaneFreak]

OK so looking at the GFS, if this hits PR and goes due north after departing from PR, it will be a subsequent threat to Bermuda and maybe Newfoundland. If it goes southwest of PR and maybe grazes Hispaniola moving northwest, it will stand a higher chance of impacting the CONUS in this setup. The latest GFS was very very close to being a trough capture. Had the storm been a bit farther west like the ICON showed, it would have gotten wrapped right into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This one is going to be a nailbiter for sure.

[IsabelaWeather]

Well, that was an interesting run from the 00z GFS, to say the least. Verbatim I'd have an eye party at my house.

[Tekken_Guy]

OK so looking at the GFS, if this hits PR and goes due north after departing from PR, it will be a subsequent threat to Bermuda and maybe Newfoundland. If it goes southwest of PR and maybe grazes Hispaniola moving northwest, it will stand a higher chance of impacting the CONUS in this setup. The latest GFS was very very close to being a trough capture. Had the storm been a bit farther west like the ICON showed, it would have gotten wrapped right into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This one is going to be a nailbiter for sure.

Not really. The ICON ended with the storm too far to the east to pose a serious threat to the US, outside of maybe New England via the “left hook” scenario we saw in earlier GFSs today.

[aspen]

Seems like there’s a greater consensus this morning that the CONUS should be safe after 98L passes the Caribbean. Bermuda, on the other hand, could get whacked.

Track consensus seems quite similar to Earl ‘22.

[mantis83]

6z gfs more in line with the euro now in passing north and east of puerto rico.....

['CaneFreak]

OK so looking at the GFS, if this hits PR and goes due north after departing from PR, it will be a subsequent threat to Bermuda and maybe Newfoundland. If it goes southwest of PR and maybe grazes Hispaniola moving northwest, it will stand a higher chance of impacting the CONUS in this setup. The latest GFS was very very close to being a trough capture. Had the storm been a bit farther west like the ICON showed, it would have gotten wrapped right into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This one is going to be a nailbiter for sure.

Not really. The ICON ended with the storm too far to the east to pose a serious threat to the US, outside of maybe New England via the “left hook” scenario we saw in earlier GFSs today.

Yeah the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast is what I meant. Sorry I wasn’t specific. Looks like it is consolidating to the north today despite what it looked like last night so it is increasingly likely to be a miss for many.

[aspen]

6z HWRF shows genesis tomorrow morning, even though it initializes the wave as pretty anemic.

It also continues to show a small core with tons of outer bands/eyewalls.

[gatorcane]

06Z guidance. All models except the HWRF (outlier), turn it north after Puerto Rico:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Might get lucky here as far as land impacts go and have it miss the islands entirely.

[KPILM]

Okay, don't laugh at this question, I'm just a clueless scrub, but I've been watching a lot of videos recently where the prediction is early Fall weather and colder than average temps across the US (the Farmer's Almanac forecast also predicts earlier and colder temps). If these predictions come to pass, how exactly would it effect future storms for the rest of the season?

[BobHarlem]

12z Tvcn consensus is now every so slightly to the right (north) of the islands and just barely east of Bermuda. Odds of the old fush spinner increasing if those trends right continue and especially if it strengthens early.

[aspen]

GFS and HWRF show a significant improvement in 98L’s upper-level setup starting on Wednesday, with an excellent anticyclone parked over the system from roughly midday Wednesday to late Thursday. If the system has a good structure by then, we’d need to watch out for RI, especially since this’ll be when it’s passing through the NE Lesser Antilles.

[tolakram]

Okay, don't laugh at this question, I'm just a clueless scrub, but I've been watching a lot of videos recently where the prediction is early Fall weather and colder than average temps across the US (the Farmer's Almanac forecast also predicts earlier and colder temps). If these predictions come to pass, how exactly would it effect future storms for the rest of the season?

Farmers Almanac is fun but also junk. In other words you're asking a question similar to how would trees look if the sky turned lime green tomorrow. There is no value in the result. Makes for good Youtube videos and engagement, but not much else.

Cold fronts making it into the gulf and Atlantic are responsible for spinning up a lot of later season storms. Fall arrives every year, pretty close to the same time. If you've been around a while you'll get used to the eb and flow of the typical seasonal nonsense. Someone will predict that a cold front will end the season early. If that season does in fact end early they relish in being 'correct', and if it doesn't they will go silent. Bad science is easy and gets the views!

If your source has a verifiable track record then we have something to discuss, at least, but not here. We have a seasonal indicator thread for that.

[LarryWx]

12Z CMC: track shifted W to eastern PR/Virgin Islands. Just yesterday it was a few hundred miles away at closest approach.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: goes NW ~150 miles W of Bermuda

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 20.5N 69.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.08.2024 84 20.5N 69.4W 1008 32
1200UTC 15.08.2024 96 22.9N 70.2W 1008 42
0000UTC 16.08.2024 108 25.0N 70.1W 1005 46
1200UTC 16.08.2024 120 27.0N 68.9W 1002 50
0000UTC 17.08.2024 132 28.5N 67.5W 999 50
1200UTC 17.08.2024 144 30.7N 66.8W 994 47
0000UTC 18.08.2024 156 32.2N 67.1W 990 46
1200UTC 18.08.2024 168 33.7N 68.5W 991 47