ATL: ERNESTO - Models

[LarryWx]

12Z CMC and GFS hit Bermuda hard with the center pretty closeby. ICON isn’t as close as it passes 150 miles NW.

[aspen]

Pretty significant W shifts from the CMC and ICON, perhaps due to delayed development? The GFS shows some complex double-lobed consolidation that could take longer than what the HWRF is showing.

[LarryWx]

Significant E shift of GEFS with virtually none close to CONUS and instead centered on Bermuda. Some brush SE Canada.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro passes 150 miles SE of Bermuda with little effect on Bermuda. Then passes well SE of Canada.

Edit: 12Z EPS centered around Bermuda with only a few W outliers near CONUS.

[aspen]

The consistency of the HWRF outputs suggests that once 98L develops and becomes a hurricane, it will start of with a small eyewall and constantly struggle with multiple outer eyewalls and bands. Wonder if we’ll get an Earl ‘22 repeat in terms of both track and structure/intensity.

[Teban54]

The consistency of the HWRF outputs suggests that once 98L develops and becomes a hurricane, it will start of with a small eyewall and constantly struggle with multiple outer eyewalls and bands. Wonder if we’ll get an Earl ‘22 repeat in terms of both track and structure/intensity.

Earl also suffered from significant dry air issues, which I don't see happening here.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The consistency of the HWRF outputs suggests that once 98L develops and becomes a hurricane, it will start of with a small eyewall and constantly struggle with multiple outer eyewalls and bands. Wonder if we’ll get an Earl ‘22 repeat in terms of both track and structure/intensity.

Earl also suffered from significant dry air issues, which I don't see happening here.

Good point, at this time I'd like to share my model track consensus rule of thumb - I would much rather my area suffer a model consensus hit more than five days out than five days or less out. Often a track projection more than 120 hrs out fails to verify for the long-range which is why I believe NHC does go that far out. Please keep this in mind, everyone.

[LarryWx]

I hope the 18Z is an outlier run, it has more members that could affect the mainland US than the 12Z after the rend with time had been further E.

12Z https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExeTh2dmF4ZW0xN3g4aGR1dGxpdzk1OWp5ZjVxYTUyODVpdzNsNzN6NiZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/UaYanuitYc9KH0zLwZ/giphy.gif

18Z https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExaWtvd2RrOGRrMnppZWZ4ZXJkYTYwMHh5enJpNjBjdWdpemM2Z2JjZSZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/nU3DB0oPE8j3fn0U5N/giphy.gif

Hey Ed,
Hope all is well. The 18Z GEFS you’re showing is yesterday’s (8/10).

[TomballEd]

The consistency of the HWRF outputs suggests that once 98L develops and becomes a hurricane, it will start of with a small eyewall and constantly struggle with multiple outer eyewalls and bands. Wonder if we’ll get an Earl ‘22 repeat in terms of both track and structure/intensity.

Earl also suffered from significant dry air issues, which I don't see happening here.

Good point, at this time I'd like to share my model track consensus rule of thumb - I would much rather my area suffer a model consensus hit more than five days out than five days or less out. Often a track projection more than 120 hrs out fails to verify for the long-range which is why I believe NHC does go that far out. Please keep this in mind, everyone.

My weekly reminder than Dr. Andy Hazelton, one of the developers of the HAFS models at HRD, in a pinned Tweet, he says the high res models are calibrated to systems that are already at least TDs, they are of limited use before then. I wouldn't really trust the HWRF/HAFS before tomorrow morning's recon fixes a center and gives a direct measurement of the wind field in soon to be Ernesto.

[TomballEd]

I hope the 18Z is an outlier run, it has more members that could affect the mainland US than the 12Z after the rend with time had been further E.

12Z https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExeTh2dmF4ZW0xN3g4aGR1dGxpdzk1OWp5ZjVxYTUyODVpdzNsNzN6NiZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/UaYanuitYc9KH0zLwZ/giphy.gif

18Z https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExaWtvd2RrOGRrMnppZWZ4ZXJkYTYwMHh5enJpNjBjdWdpemM2Z2JjZSZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/nU3DB0oPE8j3fn0U5N/giphy.gif

Hey Ed,
Hope all is well. The 18Z GEFS you’re showing is yesterday’s (8/10).

Now I feel better. Off to delete.

[BobHarlem]

18z GFS quite a bit left/south of all 3 prior runs at 63 hours, recurves over western Puerto Rico.

[aspen]

18z GFS quite a bit left/south of all 3 prior runs at 63 hours, recurves over western Puerto Rico.

https://i.imgur.com/l6P3y9Z.png

https://i.imgur.com/M938mGX.png

A lot weaker too. It seems to be trending towards a complex, delayed development with two vorts competing with each other. The one that wins out this run rotates to the southern end of the wave envelope, which is why the storm ends up further south this run.

[BobHarlem]

Bermuda right in the middle of the eye on this 18z GFS Frame

[Kazmit]

Bermuda right in the middle of the eye on this 18z GFS Frame

https://i.imgur.com/WfFHhgV.png

Blows my mind how frequently we get hit despite our size. Unfortunately I won’t be on the island for this one.

[aspen]

Yet another HWRF run showing the band-heavy/endless EWRC core structure scenario. It’s been so persistent that I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t happen.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

12Z CMC and GFS hit Bermuda hard with the center pretty closeby. ICON isn’t as close as it passes 150 miles NW.

GFS is only 74 knots and 16-20 inches of rain! Yes please.

[toad strangler]

Bermuda right in the middle of the eye on this 18z GFS Frame

https://i.imgur.com/WfFHhgV.png

Blows my mind how frequently we get hit despite our size. Unfortunately I won’t be on the island for this one.

Bermuda is on the center line of a climatological cyclone super highway. That makes you a larger target lol

[chaser1]

Bermuda right in the middle of the eye on this 18z GFS Frame

https://i.imgur.com/WfFHhgV.png

Blows my mind how frequently we get hit despite our size. Unfortunately I won’t be on the island for this one.

It's true?! Well at least the volume of storms that impact the island. There have been plenty. How many years have you been there and what's the worst hurricane that you've experienced there?

[Kazmit]

Bermuda right in the middle of the eye on this 18z GFS Frame

https://i.imgur.com/WfFHhgV.png

Blows my mind how frequently we get hit despite our size. Unfortunately I won’t be on the island for this one.

It's true?! Well at least the volume of storms that impact the island. There have been plenty. How many years have you been there and what's the worst hurricane that you've experienced there?

Lived there for almost my whole life. The worst I’ve experienced were probably Fay and Gonzalo which struck back to back within a week. Fabian was easily the worst in the past 25 years or so but I wasn’t around for that. We tend to fare very well in hurricanes. The buildings are all stone, and we usually get weakening cat 1-3s.

[Hurricane Mike]

Fabian was a right front quadrant strike of a major hurricane. Bermuda needs to watch this very closely.