ATL: ERNESTO - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 48.0W
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Guadeloupe and St. Martin.

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St.
Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Saba and St. Eustatius.

The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Sint Maarten.



Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024

NHC has been monitoring the a broad area of low pressure associated
with a tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic during the past
several days. Satellite images and earlier ASCAT data indicate that
the low has a broad circulation, but there is no evidence of a
well-defined center yet. The associated shower and thunderstorm
activity is showing some signs of organization, but visible
satellite imagery suggests that dry air is entraining into the
circulation. However, since the disturbance is forecast to become
a tropical storm in the next day or so, and there is a risk of
tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the Leeward Islands
during that time, advisories are being initiated on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Five. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters
will be investigating this system on Monday.

The estimated motion of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is
285/18-kt. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement on a fast
west-northwestward motion through the next 36-48 h. This motion
should bring the system near or over the Leeward Islands on Tuesday.
Thereafter, a deep-layer trough moving off the U.S. East Coast
should approach this system, inducing a turn to the northwest by
Wednesday and to the north thereafter. This should bring the
system in the general vicinity of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
Tuesday night, then emerging into the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico
on Wednesday. The NHC track forecast is based on a blend of the
latest GFS and ECMWF models. Users should keep in mind that the
track forecasts for potential tropical cyclones are inherently more
uncertain than normal since the system lacks a well–defined center.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is currently located in an
environment of moderate easterly vertical wind shear. Over the next
day or two, the wind shear is forecast to decrease some while the
disturbance moves into an increasingly unstable environment. Given
the current organizational state of the convection and low-level
wind structure, the system likely needs at least one more day before
it can organize into a tropical cyclone. Around the time the system
reaches the Leeward Islands, it will be moving into an increasingly
conducive environment for strengthening. Therefore, once the system
is able to develop an inner core it should have an opportunity to
strengthen at a faster rate. The favorable environment will likely
continue in the 3 to 5-day time frame, and this system is forecast
to be a strengthening hurricane when it is moving northward over the
western Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly below the
intensity consensus in the short term, but falls in line with the
consensus aids beyond a couple of days.


Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before
reaching the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for
portions of the area.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday
and Wednesday, and into Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday.

3. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico tonight or early
Monday, and interests in these locations should monitor the progress
of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 13.6N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 12/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 12/1800Z 15.2N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
36H 13/0600Z 15.9N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 13/1800Z 17.0N 62.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 18.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.8N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 23.9N 67.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 27.7N 66.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
800 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024

...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 49.1W
ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024

...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 50.1W
ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St.
Barthelemy.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands





Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024

The system remains very broad and the deep convection is still not
well organized, and data from a partial ASCAT pass suggest that a
well-defined circulation has not yet formed. Given the lack of
increase in organization of the cloud pattern, the current intensity
is held at 25 kt for this advisory. The disturbance is expected to
pass near or over data buoy 41040 soon, which could help better
assess the status of the system.

Although the center is not well-defined, the system appears to be
continuing its fast west-northwestward motion at around 285/20 kt.
A mid-level ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of the
potential tropical cyclone for the next 48 hours, which should more
or less maintain the current heading during that period. In the 2
to 3 day time frame, a mid-tropospheric trough moving off the U.S.
east coast should cause the system to turn northward to the north of
the Greater Antilles. Later in the forecast period a turn toward
the north-northeast, ahead of the trough, is anticipated. The NHC
forecast track is just a little to the left of the previous one
during the next 48 hours, and is close to the latest model
consensus. It should again be noted that forecast tracks for
potential tropical cyclones are inherently more uncertain than usual
because of the greater uncertainty in the initial center position.

The disturbance is currently being affected by some easterly
vertical wind shear which is probably inhibiting its initial
development and intensification. The shear is likely to weaken soon
and the thermodynamic environment is expected to become more
conducive over the next few days. The official forecast calls for
intensification in general agreement with the intensity model
consensus.

Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before
reaching the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for
portions of the area.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday
and Wednesday, and into Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday.

3. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for the
islands of the northeastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico, by
early Monday, and interests in these locations should monitor the
progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 14.1N 50.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 12/1200Z 14.8N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 13/0000Z 15.6N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 13/1200Z 16.2N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 17.4N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 18.7N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 20.3N 66.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 24.5N 67.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 28.5N 65.9W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

...DISTURBANCE MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND NEARBY ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 52.5W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques,
and Culebra.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra



Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

Satellite imagery and surface observations from NOAA buoy 41040
indicate that the tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles doe not
have a well-defined circulation, and that the convection is not
well organized. However, these observations also suggest the
possibility that a new center may be trying to form to the west or
northwest of the advisory position. Until that is confirmed by
either daylight satellite imagery or an upcoming Hurricane Hunter
flight, the system will remain at potential tropical cyclone
status. The initial intensity is a possibly conservative 25 kt.

The initial motion is a fast 280/22 kt. A mid-level ridge is
forecast to remain in place to the north of the potential tropical
cyclone for the next 24-36 hours, which should more or less
maintain the current heading during that period with some decrease
in forward speed. After that, a mid-latitude trough moving
eastward from the eastern United States is forecast to create a
large break in the subtropical ridge, with the system turning
northwestward and northward into the break. While the model
guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario, there
is still uncertainty on where the predominant center will
eventually form, and this will affect where the system may track
with respect to the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico. The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the
previous forecast.

Based on the disturbance's currently disorganized state and
continued easterly shear, the intensity forecast during the first
36 h has been nudged downward. However the system is still
expected to become a tropical storm near or over the Leeward
Islands. Environmental conditions become more favorable for
development after 24-36 hr, and the intensity forecast shows
significant strengthening during that time. This portion of the
new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast.


Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before or
as it reaches the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are
in effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for
portions of the area.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands by later today into
Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday.

3. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the
nearby islands. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for portions of the northeastern Caribbean later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 14.4N 52.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 12/1800Z 15.0N 55.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 13/0600Z 15.7N 59.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 16.5N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 17.9N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 19.4N 66.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 21.0N 66.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 25.0N 67.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 29.5N 65.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
800 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 54.3W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to
a Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St.
Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla.

The government of the Netherlands has upgraded the Tropical Storm
Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.

The government of France has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning for Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St.
Barthelemy.

The government of Sint Maarten has upgraded the Tropical Storm
Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for Sint Maarten.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO...
...DISTURBANCE STILL MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 55.6W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, has been upgraded to a Tropical
Storm Warning.




Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the storm
indicate a low-level center could be attempting to form closer to
some increased convective activity within the northern semicircle of
the disturbance. While the disturbance appears to be gradually
becoming better organized in satellite imagery, the lack of a
well-defined center means it will remain a potential tropical
cyclone for this advisory. Based on the flight-level winds and some
distant scatterometer data over the eastern part of the circulation,
the initial intensity is set at 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the system this afternoon
and help us assess any changes to the low-level wind field.

Overall, the disturbance has moved a little faster to the west than
previous estimates, and the initial motion remains quickly westward
(280/23 kt). A westward to west-northwestward motion with some
decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days
while the system moves around the southwestern extent of the
subtropical ridge. This will bring the center over portions of the
Leeward Islands late tonight into Tuesday, and then near or over the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Tuesday night and Wednesday. By
midweek, the system will reach a weakness in the mid-level ridge
caused by a mid-latitude trough moving across the western Atlantic.
This should induce a northwestward to northward motion during the
latter half of the forecast period. The track guidance envelope has
shifted to the left of the previous track, likely a product of the
faster forward speed and the weaker initial state of the system.
Only small adjustments were made to the near-term NHC track
forecast, with a slightly larger westward adjustment at days 3-5.

Until the disturbance becomes better organized, the large radius of
maximum wind and some northeasterly shear should only allow for
modest strengthening during the next 24-48 h. The NHC forecast shows
it becoming a tropical storm in 24 h and continuing to slowly
strengthen while it passes over the northeastern Caribbean Sea. Once
the system reaches the western Atlantic, the intensity guidance
favors more significant strengthening, and the system is forecast to
become a hurricane in 3 days and continue intensifying thereafter.
No major changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast this cycle,
which remains close to the multi-model consensus.


Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm as it
reaches the Leeward Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect
for most of these islands, where tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin late tonight.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in areas of the Leeward and Virgin Islands by later
today into Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into
Thursday.

3. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico, where tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin Tuesday night or early Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 15.1N 55.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/0000Z 15.5N 58.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 13/1200Z 16.3N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 17.3N 64.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 18.8N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 20.5N 67.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 22.7N 68.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 27.0N 67.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 31.5N 65.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
200 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 56.4W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 57.5W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES





Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

Satellite images and data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
indicate that a center of circulation has now formed, and deep
convection is gradually organizing in bands around that feature. A
combination of flight-level wind and SFMR data from the aircraft
support increasing the winds to 35 kt. Since the system meets the
definition of a tropical cyclone and has winds of tropical storm
force, it is now designated Tropical Storm Ernesto.

Based on the latest satellite images and aircraft data, the center
has formed about 30 n mi north of the previous track. This makes
the initial motion uncertain, but our best estimate is 285/24 kt.
This fast forward speed is due to a strong low- to mid-level ridge
situated just north of the system over the subtropical Atlantic. A
fast west-northwestward motion is expected to continue, taking the
storm across the northern Leeward Islands overnight and near or over
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday
night. After that time, a significant slowdown and a turn to the
north over the Atlantic is expected as a deep-layer trough pushes
off the U.S. east coast, causing the ridge to shift eastward. The
NHC track forecast is a little to the right of the previous one in
the short term and lies on the left edge of the guidance through
Ernesto's track across the Caribbean. This forecast is closer to
the middle of the guidance envelope while it is over the western and
central Atlantic.

Since Ernesto now has a center and a slightly improved circulation,
strengthening seems likely. However, the rate of intensification
will likely be slow during the next day or two due to the system's
broad structure and ragged convective pattern. More significant
strengthening is forecast after Ernesto exits the Caribbean, when
nearly all of the environmental conditions appear conducive. The
NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one in
the short term, trending toward the latest consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight and Tuesday and to the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by late Tuesday. Tropical Storm
Warnings are in effect for this entire area.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in areas of the Leeward and Virgin Islands through
Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday.

3. It is too soon to know what impacts Ernesto could bring to
Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the
progress of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 16.0N 57.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 16.2N 60.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 16.9N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 18.5N 65.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 20.9N 67.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 22.9N 67.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 25.0N 68.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 29.4N 66.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 32.5N 64.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

...ERNESTO APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 59.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES



Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

Ernesto remains a rather broad tropical cyclone, and satellite and
radar data shows that deep convection has yet to
consolidate/concentrate near its center. Tonight's NOAA P-3 TDR data
in Ernesto also suggests the broad center currently lacks much
vertical alignment. However, there are a number of convective
banding features around the circulation and the overall organization
of the cloud pattern has been increasing since earlier today.
Satellite imagery shows that the upper-level anticyclonic outflow
pattern is well defined over the western semicircle of the
circulation. The intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory based
on observations from Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft and
Dvorak satellite estimates.

Since the system is still in the formative stage, there is some
scatter in the center position estimates, making the initial motion
estimate somewhat uncertain. My best motion estimate is generally
westward at a slightly slower speed, around 275/22 kt. During the
next day or so, a mid-level ridge to the north of Ernesto should
maintain a westward to west-northwestward motion at a gradually
decreasing forward speed. This should take the center of the
tropical cyclone over portions of the Leeward Islands very soon,
across the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday, and near
or over portions of Puerto Rico Tuesday evening or Tuesday night.
After that, the flow on the eastern side a deep-layer trough moving
off the U.S. east coast should cause Ernesto turn northward to
north-northeastward. Later in the forecast period, the first trough
that steers the system northward from the Greater Antilles leaves
Ernesto behind, and the tropical cyclone may have to wait for a
second trough to steer it farther into the mid-latitudes. The
official track forecast is near the left edge of the guidance suite
during the first 24-36 hours and close to the simple model consensus
from 2-5 days.

Assuming that deep convection will increase near the center of
Ernesto, the high-level outflow and otherwise conducive oceanic and
atmospheric environment favors strengthening during the next few
days. Although the intensification is expected to be gradual during
the early part of the period, a more rapid rate of strengthening is
likely after the system moves north of the Greater Antilles. The
official intensity forecast is about the same as the previous one
and close to the multi-model consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Leeward Islands beginning early Tuesday and to the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by late Tuesday. Tropical Storm
Warnings are in effect for this entire area.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in areas of the Leeward and Virgin Islands through
Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday.

3. It is too soon to know what impacts Ernesto could bring to
Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the
progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 16.0N 59.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 16.4N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 17.7N 64.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 19.5N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 21.7N 67.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 24.0N 68.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 26.1N 67.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 29.9N 65.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 32.7N 64.2W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

...CENTER OF ERNESTO NEAR GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 61.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES



Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

Satellite imagery and French radar data from Guadeloupe indicate
that convection has become more concentrated near the center of
Ernesto during the past several hours, and there is increased
evidence of cyclonic rotation in the radar imagery. However, this
has not yet resulted in significant intensification, with surface
obs from the Leeward Islands showing a large area of pressures near
1007-1009 mb and no evidence of any tight wind center. Based on
this and the latest satellite intensity estimates, the initial
intensity is held at 35 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 280/17, a little slower
than before. Ernesto should turn west-northwestward with an
additional decrease in forward speed during the next 12 h or so as
it approaches a developing break in the subtropical ridge. This
motion should bring the center near or over the Leeward Islands
today and near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight
and early Wednesday. After that, the flow between the subtropical
ridge and a mid-latitude trough moving eastward from the United
States should cause the cyclone to turn northward and northeastward.
By the end of the forecast period, this trough is expected to move
eastward away from Ernesto, with a mid-latitude shortwave ridge
passing north of the storm. This development should cause another
decrease in forward speed during the 96-120 h period. The new
forecast track is close to the various consensus models, and it is
also similar to the previous forecast track.

Ernesto is forecast to be in an environment of light to moderate
shear and over warm sea surface temperatures through the forecast
period, and this combination should allow it to strengthen.
Intensification is likely to be slow during the first 12-24 h
primarily due to the current lack of organization. After that, a
faster rate of strengthening is expected, with Ernesto forecast to
reach hurricane strength in 36-48 h. The intensity forecast
follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance, and it lies
between the intensity consensus and the upper edge of the guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Leeward Islands today and to the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico by late today or tonight. Tropical Storm Warnings are
in effect for this entire area.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands through today, and
over the Virgin Islands into Puerto Rico by later today through
Wednesday.

3. It is too soon to know what impacts Ernesto could bring to
Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the
progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 16.2N 61.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 17.1N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 18.7N 65.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 20.7N 67.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 23.0N 68.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 25.1N 68.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 27.2N 67.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 30.5N 65.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 33.5N 64.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
800 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE PASSING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 61.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

...ERNESTO A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT PASSES JUST SOUTH OF ST. KITTS
AND NEVIS...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, VIEQUES, AND
CULEBRA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 62.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands,
Culebra, and Vieques.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Hurricane Watch
for the British Virgin Islands.


Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

Ernesto's center passed near or over Guadeloupe and Montserrat this
morning and is now located just south of St. Kitts and Nevis.
Aircraft data, satellite images, and radar data show that the storm
is becoming better organized, and there are some indications that
an inner core is developing. Earlier NOAA Hurricane Hunter data
supported maximum winds of 40 kt, and given the improved structure
since then (and consensus T3.0 Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB),
the initial intensity is set at 45 kt.

Ernesto has turned toward the west-northwest, and now has an
initial motion of 290/16 kt. A break in the subtropical ridge over
the western Atlantic is expected to cause Ernesto to turn toward
the northwest and then north during the next couple of days, with
the storm's center passing near or over the Virgin Islands this
evening and then moving northeast and north of Puerto Rico
overnight and on Wednesday. A northward to north-northeastward
motion is forecast after 48 hours as Ernesto interacts with a
deep-layer trough off the U.S. East Coast, but this trough ends up
bypassing Ernesto, resulting in the storm slowing down a bit when
it is in the vicinity of Bermuda. The track guidance has been very
consistent, and no changes were required to the official track
forecast compared to the previous issuance.

Sea surface temperatures near Ernesto in the northeastern Caribbean
Sea are very warm--on the order of 29-30 degrees Celsius--and
vertical shear in the atmosphere is relatively light. Combined
with the thought that Ernesto is developing an inner core, these
ingredients favor quick strengthening over the next day or so.
SHIPS and the HFIP Corrected Consensus models indicate that Ernesto
could be near or at hurricane strength in about 24 hours, and
several of the Rapid Intensification (RI) indices are notably high.
As a result, the updated NHC intensity forecast is more aggressive
than the previous forecast, and brings Ernesto to hurricane
strength by 24 hours when the center is north of Puerto Rico.
Because there is some risk of the storm becoming a hurricane before
that time, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Virgin
Islands, Culebra, and Vieques. After moving north of Puerto Rico,
additional strengthening is likely, and the NHC forecast is near the
high end of the guidance. Ernesto is also likely to grow in size
while over the western Atlantic, and that is reflected in the
official forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions
of the Leeward Islands today and spread westward to the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico later today and tonight. Hurricane
conditions are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Culebra, and
Vieques this evening and tonight.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands through today, and
over the Virgin Islands into Puerto Rico by later today through
Wednesday.

3. Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week,
and interests there should monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 16.9N 62.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 18.0N 64.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 19.8N 66.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 22.0N 68.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 24.3N 68.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 26.3N 68.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 28.2N 67.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 31.4N 65.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 34.9N 64.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
200 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERNESTO STILL
STRENGTHENING...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS IN A FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 63.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM E OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

...ERNESTO HEADING TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT WHILE PASSING NORTHEAST
OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 64.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHE



Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

Ernesto's structure continues to gradually increase in organization.
There has been some indication of dry air within the circulation
and possibly some westerly shear--likely related to the system's
continued fast motion--but the maximum winds have been increasing
during the day nonetheless. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 57 kt and
believable SFMR winds of 45-50 kt northeast of the center, and
dropsonde data showed that the central pressure had fallen to 1001
mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt.
Some satellite estimates suggest the intensity could be slightly
higher, but there will be both Air Force and NOAA aircraft in the
storm later this evening to confirm these trends.

The recent aircraft fixes indicate that Ernesto continues to turn
to the right and is moving west-northwestward, or 300/16 kt. This
turn is expected to continue for the next couple of days as Ernesto
moves toward a break in the western Atlantic subtropical ridge. On
this track, Ernesto's center should pass over the Virgin Islands
later this evening and then pass northeast and north of Puerto Rico
overnight and on Wednesday. A northward to north-northeastward
motion is forecast after 48 hours as Ernesto interacts with a
deep-layer trough off the U.S. East Coast, but this trough ends up
bypassing Ernesto, resulting in the storm slowing down a bit when
it is in the vicinity of Bermuda. The track guidance continues to
be very consistent, and again no significant changes were required
to the official track forecast compared to the previous issuance.

Very warm sea surface temperatures and generally low shear favor
continued strengthening over the next few days. SHIPS and the HFIP
Corrected Consensus models continue to suggest that Ernesto could
reach hurricane strength by 12 hours, and several of the Rapid
Intensification (RI) indices are still well above climatology. As a
result, the NHC intensity forecast shows Ernesto becoming a
hurricane by tonight and then peaking at an intensity at or just
below major hurricane strength in 60-72 hours. Since there is some
chance of Ernesto becoming a hurricane while it is near the Virgin
Islands, a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Virgin Islands,
Culebra, and Vieques.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions
of the northern Leeward Islands this evening and spread westward to
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this evening and tonight.
Hurricane conditions are also possible on the Virgin Islands,
Culebra, and Vieques this evening and tonight.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands through this evening,
and over the Virgin Islands into Puerto Rico by this evening
through Wednesday.

3. Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week,
and interests there should monitor the progress of this system.

4. Swells generated by Ernesto are expected to affect portions of
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks
and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days and then reach
the east coast of the United States and Bermuda late this week and
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 18.0N 64.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 19.3N 65.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 21.3N 67.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 23.4N 68.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 25.4N 68.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 27.2N 67.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 29.1N 66.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 32.7N 65.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 36.8N 64.1W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

Ernesto continues to gradually become better organized on satellite
imagery and WSR 88-D radar data. Very intense convection has
developed near the center of the storm as well as in a strong band
to the south across Puerto Rico. Earlier Culebra reported
sustained winds of 59 kt and that was the basis for the 60 kt
estimate at 6Z. While it is possible Ernesto is already a
hurricane, radar data does not yet support an upgrade, so 60 kt
remains the initial intensity. Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft are
scheduled to be in the system later this morning.

The storm is moving northwestward at about 14 kt. Ernesto is
expected to turn north-northwestward later today and then move to
the north or north-northeast for the next several days while it
moves through a break in the subtropical ridge and interacts with a
mid-latitude trough. There are no notable changes to the NHC track
forecast, with Ernesto forecast to stay offshore of the CONUS and
make its closest approach to Bermuda on Saturday.

Radar data still suggests that Ernesto isn't fully vertically
aligned, with multiple attempts at eye formation failing, probably
due to dry air intrusions. The large-scale conditions still appear
to be conducive for strengthening as the shear remains fairly low
and any residual dry air gradually mixes out of the core. The bulk
of the intensity guidance still shows Ernesto becoming a major
hurricane over the western Atlantic in a couple of days, and the
global models also depict a large and powerful hurricane. Little
change was made to the previous forecast, which remains near the
model consensus.

It should be noted that all of the models are showing Ernesto
becoming quite a bit larger, which should send powerful swells
toward the land area across the western Atlantic. Even if Ernesto
stays well offshore of the U.S. East Coast, beach goers should be
aware of a significant risk of deadly rip currents beginning later
this week.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques during the next
several hours.

2. Heavy rainfall will result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides today over the Virgin Islands and into portions of
Puerto Rico.

3. Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week,
and interests there should monitor the progress of this system.

4. Swells generated by Ernesto are expected to affect portions of
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks
and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days, and then reach
the east coast of the United States and Bermuda late this week and
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 19.5N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 21.1N 67.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 23.6N 68.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 25.7N 68.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 27.6N 67.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 29.5N 66.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 31.4N 65.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 35.0N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 40.5N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak
700-mb flight-level wind of 70 kt northeast of Ernesto's center, and
the crew reported a 50 percent eyewall. In addition, Tail Doppler
radar from the NOAA P-3 aircraft measured winds over 75 kt at an
elevation of 500 meters. Based on these data, Ernesto is upgraded
to a 65-kt hurricane.

Ernesto continues to move northwestward, or 310/14 kt, but is
expected to turn north-northwestward and northward later today and
tonight as it moves through a break in the subtropical ridge caused
by a deep-layer trough off the east coast of the United States. This
trough is expected to leave Ernesto behind later this week, which
should cause a reduction in speed on Saturday and Sunday while the
storm is passing Bermuda. By early next week, a second trough
moving across the eastern United States should cause Ernesto to
accelerate toward the north and north-northeast over the waters
south of Atlantic Canada. The track guidance is in good agreement
during the first 48 hours, and the official forecast was only
shifted slightly westward to account for Ernesto's recent motion.
After 48 hours, there is more divergence in the track models, with
the GFS on the eastern edge of the envelope while the ECMWF shows
less turning and is on the western edge of the envelope. The NHC
forecast has been nudged westward during this period and is very
close to the dynamical hurricane models.

Although Ernesto is moving over very warm waters, the hurricane
might have to deal with bouts of increased shear and nearby dry
air during the next several days. That said, the intensity
guidance shows continued gradual strengthening, and the official
forecast still reflects the possibility of Ernesto becoming a major
hurricane in about 48 hours. Much of the intensity guidance has
come down on the peak intensity this cycle, but for now we'll
maintain continuity and wait to see if this trend continues.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides today over the Virgin Islands and into portions of
Puerto Rico.

2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to
continue over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
through today.

3. Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week, and
interests there should monitor the progress of this system. A
Hurricane Watch may be required later today.

4. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the
area late this week and into the weekend. Beach goers should be
aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip
currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf
and rip currents are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas
during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 20.5N 67.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 22.3N 68.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 24.5N 69.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 26.6N 68.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 30.4N 66.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 32.0N 65.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 36.0N 65.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 42.6N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
200 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

...FLASH FLOOD RISK CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO
ONGOING HEAVY RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 68.0W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM NW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warnings for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands have been discontinued.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 68.3W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Bermuda.




Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

Visible satellite imagery shows that Ernesto's cloud field is
gradually expanding, and there have been hints of an eye potentially
forming in the Central Dense Overcast. The Air Force Reserve
mission from a few hours ago found that the central pressure had
fallen to 989 mb, but there were no indications that the maximum
winds were any higher than 65 kt. The initial intensity is
therefore held at that level, which is also supported by the latest
satellite intensity estimates.

Ernesto is still moving northwestward but continues to turn to the
right, and the initial motion is 325/14 kt. A turn toward the
north-northwest and north is expected tonight and on Thursday as
the hurricane moves through a break in the subtropical ridge, but
the trough causing this break is forecast to leave Ernesto behind
later in the week. The result is that Ernesto is likely to slow
down while it passes very near Bermuda Friday night and Saturday.
Thereafter, a second trough approaching from the west should cause
Ernesto to accelerate toward the northeast, near or just south of
Atlantic Canada. The track models are in very good agreement on
this scenario, but there is a bit of east-to-west spread after 48
hours. The new NHC track forecast has been nudged eastward after
48 hours to be close to the multi-model consensus aids, although at
this time it is too soon to know exactly how close Ernesto's center
will move to Bermuda this weekend.

An environment of warm ocean waters (around 29 degrees Celsius) and
low to moderate shear should allow Ernesto to strengthen gradually
during the next few days. Most of the intensity models indicate
that the hurricane should peak in intensity in about 48 hours. At
that time, the official forecast shows a peak of 100 kt--major
hurricane--which is near the top end of the guidance and close to
the HAFS-B, COAMPS-TC, and HCCA models. A weakening trend should
begin after 48 hours due to moderate shear and a drier, more stable
atmosphere, but the weakening is likely to be gradual. As a result,
the official forecast keeps Ernesto as a hurricane throughout the
5-day forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda on Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon. Rainfall
associated with Ernesto may begin to affect Bermuda as early as
Thursday and result in flash flooding across Bermuda later in the
week and this weekend.

2. Heavy rainfall will be diminishing across Puerto Rico into the
Virgin Islands this evening. Locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides will continue through tonight over the Virgin Islands
and into portions of Puerto Rico.

3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the
area late this week and into the weekend. Beach goers should be
aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip
currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf
and rip currents are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas
during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 21.7N 68.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 23.5N 69.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 25.7N 69.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 27.7N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 29.5N 66.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 31.3N 65.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 32.9N 65.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 37.0N 64.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 43.4N 58.2W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
800 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERNESTO IS STRENGTHENING...
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 68.7W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
APPROACHING BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 68.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES




Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

The satellite structure of Ernesto has somewhat improved tonight. A
series of earlier SSMI/S 91 GHz passive microwave images showed the
formation of a mid-level eye, and there have been recent hints of an
eye trying to emerge in proxy-visible satellite images. Data from
the Air Force Hurricane Hunters showed the central pressure has
fallen to 982 mb, and the aircraft measured peak 700-mb flight-level
winds of 76 kt in the northeast quadrant. Based on these data, the
initial intensity is set at 70 kt. The wind field remains quite
broad and asymmetric, with the strongest aircraft winds well to the
northeast of the center. The next aircraft reconnaissance mission
into Ernesto is scheduled for tomorrow morning.

Ernesto is now moving north-northwestward at 330/14 kt. The
hurricane will continue on a north-northwestward to northward motion
during the next day or so while moving through a break in the
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. The global models agree
the upper trough that weakened the ridge will not capture Ernesto.
As a result, Ernesto will move slower to the north-northeast and
north while the hurricane approaches and moves near Bermuda Friday
night and Saturday. Later this weekend, a second trough will move
across the eastern U.S., and Ernesto should accelerate northeastward
early next week within the deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of
this feature. The NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the
previous one, as the track guidance remains in good overall
agreement. It is still too soon to know exactly how close Ernesto's
center will move to Bermuda this weekend, but warnings will likely
be required for the island on Thursday.

While there is still evidence of some drier air nearby Ernesto, the
very warm ocean waters and weak to moderate shear should promote
some strengthening during the next couple of days. This is supported
by the bulk of the intensity guidance, and the regional hurricane
models still favor Ernesto reaching major hurricane intensity on
Friday. The latest NHC prediction remains on the high end of the
guidance envelope, closest to the HFIP corrected consensus. Some
gradual weakening is forecast thereafter as Ernesto moves into a
drier, more sheared environment. There are some indications that
positive interaction with the second upper trough could cause
Ernesto's intensity to level off or even slightly increase during
the 60-96 h time period while still over warm waters. By 120 h, the
model fields suggest Ernesto will be on the verge of losing tropical
characteristics while accelerating over cooler waters.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda on Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon. Rainfall
associated with Ernesto may begin to affect Bermuda late Thursday
and result in flash flooding across Bermuda later this week and this
weekend.

2. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the
area late this week and into the weekend. Beach goers should be
aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip
currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf
and rip currents are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas
during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 23.0N 68.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 24.7N 69.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 26.8N 68.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 28.6N 67.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 30.5N 66.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 32.2N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 34.0N 65.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 38.5N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 45.0N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart