ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[lilbump3000]

https://www.youtube.com/@w.o.f.weathero ... irmation=1

[toad strangler]

Atlantic Basin ACE count will be clicking for quite awhile going forward.

[al78]

There is a possibility this becomes the second major hurricane of the season. A bit ominous for Bermuda being right in the path of the forecast track; however, it is a good five days away and a small target for the eye.

[Category5Kaiju]

There is a possibility this becomes the second major hurricane of the season. A bit ominous for Bermuda being right in the path of the forecast track; however, it is a good five days away and a small target for the eye.

This feels like it's going to end up as one of those classic massive, mid-latitude Category 4 hurricanes, so tbh if it grows enough in size the eyewall may unfortunately have a much better chance at lashing Bermuda in some way.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video on Ernesto
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aI9u3hRxwJc

[weeniepatrol]

 https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1823127113370632648

[weeniepatrol]

https://i.imgur.com/4VXnCSJ.gif

Ernesto’s circulation is so large that it is pulling convection over the Amazon rainforest towards its center.

MIMIC showing Ernesto pulling in TPW from the Amazon

[floridasun]

let see if do turn as expect by nhc when slow down

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

I get the sense that Ernesto's structure seems to be improving rather quickly even just during this loop, but amateur me can't pinpoint exactly how. Or it could be an optical illusion of vis satellite vs. short-wave IR.

[IsabelaWeather]

I get the sense that Ernesto's structure seems to be improving rather quickly even just during this loop, but amateur me can't pinpoint exactly how. Or it could be an optical illusion of vis satellite vs. short-wave IR.

https://i.postimg.cc/wMD4RcRP/goes16-truecolor-05-L-202408121905.gif

Yeah, looks like its developing a lot of curved banding features and big thunderstorms seem to be going up around the CoC

[hipshot]

I get the sense that Ernesto's structure seems to be improving rather quickly even just during this loop, but amateur me can't pinpoint exactly how. Or it could be an optical illusion of vis satellite vs. short-wave IR.

https://i.postimg.cc/wMD4RcRP/goes16-truecolor-05-L-202408121905.gif

I still can't make out the LLC if there is one. About the time I pick of some of the low level rotation, it gets obliterated by the mid level
clouds.

[FireRat]

I get the sense that Ernesto's structure seems to be improving rather quickly even just during this loop, but amateur me can't pinpoint exactly how. Or it could be an optical illusion of vis satellite vs. short-wave IR.

https://i.postimg.cc/wMD4RcRP/goes16-truecolor-05-L-202408121905.gif

Looks like something you'd expect to see in the WPAC, holy moly!

[WaveBreaking]

Sunset loop

[aspen]

I’m a little doubtful Ernesto becomes a major. I think there are two very likely possibilities for its internal dynamics based on the hurricane models and its large envelope:

1.) A small initial core forms, but it’s unable to clear nor intensify because of numerous bands and partial outer eyewalls. A similar problem to some sprawling WPAC systems, maybe similar to Earl ‘22.

2.) A large core forms that’s too broad for RI, so it ends up as a donut Cat 2 like Nigel ‘23.

It’s also possible it ends up as a large system perfectly capable of becoming a major to some degree, perhaps with some internal struggles along the way like Larry ‘21. Hard to tell for sure right now, but I think its current broad structure will result in it remaining broad and hard-to-intensify once it finally becomes a hurricane, which’ll increase the risk to Bermuda even if the center avoids the island, all while probably producing nasty surf on the US East coast.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1823176842385490006

[Teban54]

Lol WTF is this

[hipshot]

Lol WTF is this
https://i.postimg.cc/wT4ZFNNt/image.png

I think they are trying to find something that doesn't exist yet!

[lilbump3000]

https://www.youtube.com/@w.o.f.weathero ... irmation=1

[IsabelaWeather]

Large blow up on convection with temps around -80C directly on top of the estimated CoC.