ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WaveBreaking]

Latest microwave (a few hours old)

[OuterBanker]

Most models now moving a tad west, but most important is that they are also depicting a north movement until Hatteras. Ideally it will move west to around 72w which means it would not have a direct hit on the US east coast and be west of Bermuda,
Most buildings in Bermuda are limestone with heavy roofs fairing hurricanes well.
Unlike the OBX where multimillion ten to fifteen bedroom tick built homes are the majority.

(Remember the three oigs)

[TallyTracker]

I’m still concerned about the impacts to PR and the VI. Strengthening TSs are sometimes worse than a weakening Cat 1 due to pulling down wind gusts more effectively. I remember TS Fred in the FL panhandle landfalling at 65 mph and packing more of a punch than some hurricanes I’ve been through.

[TheBurn]

[ElectricStorm]

Recon seems to support 50kts/1002mb although strongest winds appeared to be outside the deep convection this pass

[msbee]

I’m still concerned about the impacts to PR and the VI. Strengthening TSs are sometimes worse than a weakening Cat 1 due to pulling down wind gusts more effectively. I remember TS Fred in the FL panhandle landfalling at 65 mph and packing more of a punch than some hurricanes I’ve been through.

I totally agree. I have seen it many times.

By the way, we are currently experiencing tropical storm force winds on the island of St Maarten, but very little rain.

[tropicwatch]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/pr/Sandwich/20242260650-20242261620-GOES16-ABI-PR-Sandwich-600x600.gif

Looking like Ernesto might leave some energy behind in the Caribbean.

[lilbump3000]

https://www.youtube.com/@w.o.f.weathero ... irmation=1

[msbee]

Well, Ernesto just slammed into us big time.
Stronger than I expected.
Not much rain, but the wind! We measured 50 mph wind at my house.
We are watching Meteo Mundo on YouTube. His real time radar showed 59 mph here on St Maarten.
It may only be a tropical storm, but it’s sure like a hurricane out there.
Watch out and be careful in PR and the VI. This is a serious storm.

[Teban54]

Recon has the COC at about 17.75N 63.7W, basically right in the middle of the CDO currently, with extrap pressure 1002.5 mb. Winds are still very asymmetrical, however, and the NW quadrant looks a bit dry.

[hipshot]

Recon has the COC at about 17.75N 63.7W, basically right in the middle of the CDO currently, with extrap pressure 1002.5 mb. Winds are still very asymmetrical, however, and the NW quadrant looks a bit dry.

That looks like right over St. Martin and west of Puerto Rico so it may miss them somewhat.

[jlauderdal]

Well, Ernesto just slammed into us big time.
Stronger than I expected.
Not much rain, but the wind! We measured 50 mph wind at my house.
We are watching Meteo Mundo on YouTube. His real time radar showed 59 mph here on St Maarten.
It may only be a tropical storm, but it’s sure like a hurricane out there.
Watch out and be careful in PR and the VI. This is a serious storm.

Hopefully no wind damage or flooding.

[xironman]

That's one big ball of convection west of Guadeloupe



You would think 42060 would be SW

Station 42060
NDBC
Location: 16.434N 63.329W
Date: Tue, 13 Aug 2024 20:10:00 UTC
Winds: S (180°) at 27.2 kt gusting to 35.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.79 in
Air Temperature: 80.1 F
Dew Point: 77.0 F
Water Temperature: 85.6

[Nimbus]

That's one big ball of convection west of Guadeloupe

https://i.imgur.com/9AdzIdJ.gif

You would think 42060 would be SW

Station 42060
NDBC
Location: 16.434N 63.329W
Date: Tue, 13 Aug 2024 20:10:00 UTC
Winds: S (180°) at 27.2 kt gusting to 35.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.79 in
Air Temperature: 80.1 F
Dew Point: 77.0 F
Water Temperature: 85.6

Its like the placement of the Obelisk in that movie Angels and Demons..
Ernesto has slowed down so that is a problem for Puerto Rico obviously.
Too much of a delay before crossing north of the GA and there is no trough steering.
NHC mentioned the ridge returning in a few days.

[aspen]

Several models have been showing a spike in shear on Friday. Therefore, I think Ernesto’s peak will probably be on Thursday or very early Friday, before the shear manages to knock it down a peg.

[xironman]

It just seems those thunderstorm bases should be going east not west south of PR. Hopefully Kermit checks out the area south of the storm. It has east winds below 18 N

[zzzh]

995.5mb extrap. Note that NOAA planes have a low pressure bias.

[zzzh]

700mb FL60kt with multiple 55kt SFMR supports 55kt.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1823447878410686912

[Hurricane2022]

It seems that the guy who dares to make a prediction that shows Ernesto reaching category 3 will be immediately fired from the NHC
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.