Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles

[colbroe]

Nice blow up of thunder storms and low pressure within the wave.

[Nimbus]

Nice blow up of thunder storms and low pressure within the wave.

You mean the wave quite far south near -40w that may not follow Ernesto north?

[CFLHurricane]

On the MMIC-TPW, it certainly looks like an interesting little thing winding up over the open sea, especially in comparison to the monster getting ready to exit Africa.

[Weathertracker96]

On the MMIC-TPW, it certainly looks like an interesting little thing winding up over the open sea, especially in comparison to the monster getting ready to exit Africa.

How are conditions ahead of it? Could this one sneak up & develop?

[toad strangler]

No model support but 'tis the season.

[Teban54]

[Frank P]

It’s got a little interesting look this afternoon, who knows?

[weeniepatrol]

That thing is extremely far south..

[toad strangler]

That thing is extremely far south..

They are either too far N or too far S. Is there a single lane wide longitude road these waves have to ride?

[drezee]

 https://x.com/andretrotter/status/1823444260001137128

[Emmett_Brown]

It has the look. Could get into the Caribbean if it can avoid S America. Outflow from Ernesto could create sinking air over the Caribbean which could limit development there, but it could develop in the W Caribbean if it manages to get there next week.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/andretrotter/status/1823444260001137128

While the disturbance will definitely be sheared by Ernesto, I don't think that alone implies its future is doomed.

Here's pre-Ian when first designated an invest (credit to Blown Away from the Ian post). Its latitude and relative position to Fiona was very similar to this wave and Ernesto now, and the invest was sheared so badly that it was almost funny.

Not saying this wave will become another Ian... But there are certainly interesting similarities even if they don't amount to much eventually.


 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1572515681278791682

[Stormybajan]

As someone who lives in the islands, im trying my best to ignore this wave but I keep staring at it everytime I go to look at big boi Ernesto aswell! Maybe im just too much of a tropical weenie! . Lol seriously though models barely acknowledge this wave's existence so maybe it just a random piece of moisture from the monsoon trough and nothing to worry about? Idk looks rather good to me but as we know this is the Atlantic not WPAC and can go POOF very quickly..

[Teban54]

Hmm...

[Stratton23]

This one could be sneaky, from time to time we have seen models completely miss a tropical wave thats convectively active, lets see if it can hold together when it deals with ernesto’s shear and outflow, and if it can track into the caribbean without crashing into CA, this could be one to keep an eye on

[CFLHurricane]

This one could be sneaky, from time to time we have seen models completely miss a tropical wave thats convectively active, lets see if it can hold together when it deals with ernesto’s shear and outflow, and if it can track into the caribbean without crashing into CA, this could be one to keep an eye on

Its satellite presentation looks like the structure has improved overnight. I could see this becoming a compact low latitude storm that may have improved chances as Ernesto rapidly pulls away to the north and concur that NHC may tag this if it misses SA.Tis the season!

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks to be in better shape today and a bit further north at 13.48°N 53.15°W. Still nothing on the models and doubt if it will become anything.

Source - https://col.st/YA5Nk

[Tailgater33]

Yes I’m not sure why this isn’t getting a lemon, the shear will be bad for the next couple days but then abate. I guess if it doesn’t have model support then it can’t happen . Even the ensemble’s don’t show anything but a fading 750 mb vorticity.

[Frank P]

Yes I’m not sure why this isn’t getting a lemon, the shear will be bad for the next couple days but then abate. I guess if it doesn’t have model support then it can’t happen . Even the ensemble’s don’t show anything but a fading 750 mb vorticity.

I sorta agree, and the overall sat loop images does hint of a broad CC the poor lil fella at the time but still needs to be watched regardless whether or not it has model support.

[Frank P]

This system has gotten uglier all day, time to write this off and wait for the next system, whenever it occurs. It’s a really good thing Ernesto didn’t make it to the GOM, it would have been a disaster for some gulf coastal areas.. count our blessings, cheers