ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheBurn]

[saltcod]

I'm in the DR and it has been pouring for the last hour or so--I expect that will be more or less the case for the next 24hrs as Ernesto is so broad.
Our trip started with Debby in NC and is finishing with Ernesto. Hoping impact is light here!

[aspen]

999/13 eye drop, supports 997mb. Pressure gradient is vastly improved from earlier today and a lot tighter.

[Frank P]

That's one big ball of convection west of Guadeloupe

https://i.imgur.com/9AdzIdJ.gif

You would think 42060 would be SW

Station 42060
NDBC
Location: 16.434N 63.329W
Date: Tue, 13 Aug 2024 20:10:00 UTC
Winds: S (180°) at 27.2 kt gusting to 35.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.79 in
Air Temperature: 80.1 F
Dew Point: 77.0 F
Water Temperature: 85.6

That is one big storm. Interesting how there is a huge mass of convection building up in the southern part of the storm. Debby looked like at one point but the convection balls were east to west, Ernesto’s are south to north.

[IsabelaWeather]

Any chance that very large blob of convection south of the storm will tug the center a bit and cause Ernesto to move more W than expected?

[Nimbus]

Any chance that very large blob of convection south of the storm will tug the center a bit and cause Ernesto to move more W than expected?

That is what some thought might happen with Beryl near Cuba.
The blob to the south aligned with the low pressure center eventually.

Recon found a tight surface pressure profile on the northern side and it hasn't shifted track to the west like you might expect if you thought the mid level center had any steering ability or was reforming a new center?

Small chance we could have two centers as the GFS modeled a few runs ago though.

[Sciencerocks]

[Cachondo23]

Must be rough weather in BVI. Especially in Virgen Gorda. Tortola could be next with heavy weather.

[abajan]

LOCATION...18.4N 64.7W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

[tolakram]

saved loop

[IsabelaWeather]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/iAgk5cY.gif

If that spin is the LLC then it looks pretty westward atm as compared to WNW or nearly NW as earlier.

[TheBurn]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not too shabby. Fully expecting this to become a major hurricane by Friday.

[Nimbus]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/iAgk5cY.gif

If that spin is the LLC then it looks pretty westward atm as compared to WNW or nearly NW as earlier.

Still south of 18.84 maybe something going on out of radar range?

[REDHurricane]

Starting to go off now

[hipshot]

Starting to go off now

https://media2.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExdTV0aHVmbDZseWRmeGN2bnRobHMxdjZ4NGd3MHRxOHQ0OXRidnZtYSZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/j0SFYXDJaNa5N2A2Rh/giphy.gif

Wow, Puerto Rico looks to really get whacked, hope they stay safe.

[IsabelaWeather]

Starting to go off now

https://media2.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExdTV0aHVmbDZseWRmeGN2bnRobHMxdjZ4NGd3MHRxOHQ0OXRidnZtYSZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/j0SFYXDJaNa5N2A2Rh/giphy.gif

Holy smokes, convection is going nuts right now

[Cachondo23]

Starting to go off now

https://media2.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExdTV0aHVmbDZseWRmeGN2bnRobHMxdjZ4NGd3MHRxOHQ0OXRidnZtYSZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/j0SFYXDJaNa5N2A2Rh/giphy.gif

Wow, Puerto Rico looks to really get whacked, hope they stay safe.

Wind wise, doesn't looks like it. Rain could be the problem. It will depend where does that convention bombs out

[Sciencerocks]

[USVIKimmie]

STT power just went out, we’re getting hammered. Close to 70mph according to SanJuan NOAA.

Ernesto you been speedy before, get speedy again ya cuss

https://imgur.com/a/WFQ3jAC