ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[weeniepatrol]

Major hurricane forecast.



5/3/2 before the 20 August bellringing coming right up.

We are well on track for a 200 + ACE season.

[REDHurricane]

Proto-eyewall already trying to form?

[Teban54]

https://media0.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExb3V2cDdiMTNwOXF0MGZrNWhkMnl4b21xdDFlNjM0OHhzNGltcHM1eCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/jzesOFMkjZbgkjYxDf/giphy.gif

Proto-eyewall already trying to form?

Looks like avoiding a direct landfall on Puerto Rico may already be helping with Ernesto's structure and future intensity by minimizing land interaction. (PR will probably still get a lot of rain.)

[Category5Kaiju]

Major hurricane forecast.

https://i.imgur.com/kClRSB4.png

5/3/2 before the 20 August bellringing coming right up.

We are well on track for a 200 + ACE season.

Wow, dangerously close, if not right over Bermuda too.

[lilbump3000]

https://www.youtube.com/@w.o.f.weathero ... irmation=1

[cheezyWXguy]

Absurd amount of lightning in the core over the last hour. Radar velocities jumped up at the same time the lightning started too.

[skyline385]

Anyone know what that is to the NW of Ernesto, looks like an outflow boundary but dont see a reason for it to pop such a strong one at this time

[Teban54]

Absurd amount of lightning in the core over the last hour. Radar velocities jumped up at the same time the lightning started too.

Unless I'm mistaken, it looks like most of the lighting was actually taking place in the (disorganized) huge convective blob to the south, rather than the actual CDO to the north of Puerto Rico as indicated by NHC's 18.8N location? Still impressive, but not a direct indication of core building.

[Hurrilurker]

It looks to me like it's about to cast off that southern convection center (actually the larger one) and consolidate on the northern one. That now has fully visible spin and tightening core.

[WaveBreaking]

Anyone know what that is to the NW of Ernesto, looks like an outflow boundary but dont see a reason for it to pop such a strong one at this time

https://i.imgur.com/wRvQUhp.gif

There’s some leftover SAL to its NW that accompanied Ernesto when it first came off the coast of Africa. Since there’s little to no shear, the dry air stayed away from Ernesto’s moisture envelope.

[Nimbus]

Puerto Rico stayed on the weak side of the low level circulation center but those squalls streaming north have some impressive rain rates. Looks like some of the models have shifted west a little as Ernesto escaped the first trough and has at least temporarily resumed a more westward track. Atlantic Canada may see some landfall probability changes at the 11 AM discussion.

[WaveBreaking]

Proto-eyewall on PR radar.

[Cachondo23]

Was there an official landfall in Guadeloupe and USVI or BVI?

[kevin]

Recon so far has found 64 kt FL winds and 55 kt SFMR. Extrapolated pressure is down to 987.0 mbar, while the eye drop is of 992mb/17kt supports 990 mbar.

[TomballEd]

Proto-eyewall on PR radar.

https://i.imgur.com/tASZehL.mp4

[ouragans]

Was there an official landfall in Guadeloupe and USVI or BVI?

No for Guadeloupe, because Météo France completely messed up in their official statement, they placed Ernesto's center NW of Grande-Terre island while the NHC position at 9z was clearly south of Grande-Terre. As per my estimates, landfall was near the city of Sainte Anne by 10z.

Afterwards, there might have landfall on the neighbouring island of Montserrat, but I cannot be sure

[REDHurricane]

Rotating hot towers popping up directly north of PR in the last few frames here:



Very little wind shear to deal with over at least the next 24-48 hours:



Ernesto seems to be ready for takeoff, if not taking off already -- if I had to guess I'd say it'll get up to low/mid-cat 4 strength, but to be honest I wouldn't be shocked if Ernesto pulls another Beryl and again unexpectedly decides to reach cat 5 given the extremely favorable conditions compared to climatology. Also, just wanted to highlight the fact that it's not even halfway through August and the entire Caribbean/Gulf wind shear environment looks like that?? Oof

[TheBurn]

[Sciencerocks]

[hipshot]

https://i.imgur.com/BzVMzs7.gif

Is the LLC under the northern blob of convection?