ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Buck]

...FLASH FLOOD RISK CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO ONGOING HEAVY RAINS...
2:00 PM AST Wed Aug 14
Location: 21.1°N 68.0°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 989 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

[Teban54]

Dual rotating hot towers:

[TheBurn]

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurrilurker]

Looks like that dry air moat around the core is starting to fill in.

[aspen]

Finally starting to see hints of an eye and eyewall hot towers, so it’s probably safe to say Ernesto is finally picking up its intensification pace. Let’s see how far it gets before the next intrusion of dry air and shear.

[skyline385]

Can see the jet starting to dig in and form the trough which will provide UL divergence as shown on the models. Now is the time for it to get a tight core going if its going to hit that major forecast

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

5pm advisory is closer to Bermuda again. Hurricane Watch issued. Looks like we will get the eastern eyewall...

[aspen]

A huge hot tower just blew up and expanded into a CDO right over Ernesto’s eye, which is a pretty good sign that it’s mixed out any dry air it may have ingested earlier today. Recon just left and should tell us if a faster rate of intensification has indeed begun.

[WaveBreaking]

Latest convective blowup shows up on PR radar.

[WaveBreaking]

Definitely looks better than it did when it was fighting dry air earlier this morning.

[Teban54]

The big fat tower has sustained itself, and Ernesto is also the most symmetrical it has ever been.

[WaveBreaking]

The big fat tower has sustained itself, and Ernesto is also the most symmetrical it has ever been.
https://i.postimg.cc/J0ffbJV9/goes16-ir-05-L-202408141922.gif

Quite some lightning with this tower too.

[Nimbus]

Looks like that dry air moat around the core is starting to fill in.

Ernesto is pulling moist inflow through the Mona Passage.
Small things make a difference, Puerto Rico received some pretty nasty squall lines streaming north from the Caribbean.
That wasn't forecast 72 hours ago.

Pretty classic setup, we had a TUTT to the north that pulled Ernesto NW enough to miss Puerto Rico.
Now we have a trough digging that is forecast to scoop Ernesto north over or near Bermuda.

Looked like this a few days ago.



Appears to be a second trough dropping south through New Brunswick that should leave us with a happier outcome this time.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Second tower firing off south of the first. Looks to be rotating. Here we go!

[kevin]

Based on the rapidly expanding and rotating CDO I think there's a pretty good shot that Ernesto's expected RI has started since ~1 hour. Pretty much the perfect time for recon. Not for observing peak intensity obviously, but it'll give some interesting information about the Ernesto's intensification rate in between passes.

[msbee]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1823742274528006241

Glad to see your post, Luis.
Wishing the best for PR. Too much rain for you all.
Hope you have power.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1823742274528006241

Glad to see your post, Luis.
Wishing the best for PR. Too much rain for you all.
Hope you have power.

I am fine but there has been extensive flooding around the island. This time has been different as power has been out for 50% of the island and I had been on the other 50% with power. Is different from Maria, when I was 3 months without power.

[kevin]

RI seems to be ongoing. Recon is now at 980.1 mb extrapolated and not yet at the center.

[Hurricane2022]

Extrap 979.2. But winds on the SE quad are still very weak