ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

The lowest pressure found is 979.2 mb with 16 kt winds, which supports 978 - 979 mb, 10 - 11 mb lower than the current advisory.

This would mean an intensification rate of about 11 mb over the last 6 hours (the previous AF plane) so ~1.8 mb/hr. I think the actual intensification rate is even higher since it was probably holding steady the first few hours after recon left. Either way, Ernesto is really going for it now. Winds still have to get more symmetrical though as they were only 40 kt SFMR and 37 kt FL in the SW quadrant. Meanwhile the NE quadrant had 54 kt SFMR and 63 kt FL so far. I expect winds in the other quadrants to also quickly increase as Ernesto continues deepening.

[MarioProtVI]

Extrap 979.2. But winds on the SE quad are still very weak

Based on microwave it seems the NW quad is the strongest. Let’s see what they find here. But I think the winds are currently lagging. Should pick up overnight.

[Travorum]

It looks like while the central pressure has been dropping quite significantly that winds are still lagging. The highest SFMR readings are right at the core while the highest FL winds are further out, so I'd expect the wind field to tighten up over the next couple hours. This is about the time in development where I wish we had NOAA recon in-storm to get a vertical profile from the tail doppler.

[Travorum]

VDM reports a 25nm circular eye open SW, which is consistent with the latest microwave imagery.

[aspen]

982/15 eye drop supports 980mb.

[weeniepatrol]

VDM reports a 25nm circular eye open SW, which is consistent with the latest microwave imagery.

[Teban54]

Eye popping up on IR as well:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looking like a very healthy hurricane... my guess is 105-110 knot peak.

[cheezyWXguy]

Inb4 the comments about cloud tops warming. This is common for hurricanes when they start clearing an eye.

[ElectricStorm]

05L ERNESTO 240815 0000 22.4N 68.7W ATL 70 981

[emeraldislenc]

Let's speculate where Ernesto would have gone without the trough set up? Just curious.

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

[REDHurricane]

Near -90ºC cloud tops at the center:

[HurricaneRyan]

The track and intensity of this storm reminds me of Dean 1989, which occurred around the same time of year just at the very beginning of August instead of the middle.

[REDHurricane]

[Hammy]

Really starting to curl up, and probably going to have a fairly tight inner core at this rate

[kevin]

A beautiful hurricane with very prominent spiral banding, I always like these. Reminds me a little bit of Epsilon 2020.

[kevin]

Recon is on its way.

[REDHurricane]

https://i.imgur.com/gSvbEin.png

Really starting to curl up, and probably going to have a fairly tight inner core at this rate