ATL: ERNESTO - Models

[Ubuntwo]

All 18z hurricane models now show peak intensity on Sunday, well after passing Bermuda. Peak is in the range 104kt to 120kt.

[aspen]

All 18z hurricane models now show peak intensity on Sunday, well after passing Bermuda. Peak is in the range 104kt to 120kt.

They all also show a slight weakening phase due to shear starting Friday morning, with recovery towards its Cat 3-4 peak starting late Saturday or early Sunday.

If we see Ernesto play out like the 18z HAFS-B, would it be one of the northernmost Cat 4s on record, if not the new record holder?

[LarryWx]

18Z Euro: 100 miles W of Bermuda giving them 9” of rainfall. SLP is 968 mb, but the run has SLP at 990 mb at 8PM EDT, 10 mb too high.

[Ubuntwo]

All 18z hurricane models now show peak intensity on Sunday, well after passing Bermuda. Peak is in the range 104kt to 120kt.

They all also show a slight weakening phase due to shear starting Friday morning, with recovery towards its Cat 3-4 peak starting late Saturday or early Sunday.

If we see Ernesto play out like the 18z HAFS-B, would it be one of the northernmost Cat 4s on record, if not the new record holder?

Yep, two distinct peaks on most of these runs. It looks like peak #2 has some baroclinic support from the trough. HAFS-B holds onto cat 4 until about 36.5N while Hurricane Ella has a cat 4 best track point above 42N. It would be I believe third place behind Ella and Gladys. Maybe that's reading too deep into one isolated run, who knows

[LarryWx]

Again the ICON (0Z) has a huge hit on Bermuda with the eye barely missing it to the W. SLP of center again drops to the low 940s and rainfall is 16”, which I think would be a big record-breaker. Hopefully it won’t be this extreme there. It then turns NE and skims far SE Newfoundland.

[LarryWx]

1) 0Z Euro: 100 miles W of Bermuda to SE Newfoundland

2) 0Z UKMET: 25 miles W of Bermuda then misses Canada
HURRICANE ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 68.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.08.2024 0 22.3N 68.7W 993 48
1200UTC 15.08.2024 12 24.5N 69.4W 989 52
0000UTC 16.08.2024 24 26.4N 68.7W 984 50
1200UTC 16.08.2024 36 28.6N 67.5W 984 54
0000UTC 17.08.2024 48 30.6N 65.9W 980 55
1200UTC 17.08.2024 60 32.1N 65.2W 975 57
0000UTC 18.08.2024 72 33.0N 65.1W 977 58
1200UTC 18.08.2024 84 34.4N 65.0W 980 56
0000UTC 19.08.2024 96 36.9N 64.0W 972 64
1200UTC 19.08.2024 108 40.3N 61.7W 967 67
0000UTC 20.08.2024 120 43.8N 57.2W 971 66
1200UTC 20.08.2024 132 46.7N 49.5W 987 47
0000UTC 21.08.2024 144 49.8N 39.6W 989 43
1200UTC 21.08.2024 156 53.6N 28.1W 977 42
0000UTC 22.08.2024 168 POST-TROPICAL

[kevin]

Recon is on its way and will arrive in about 1.5 hours. This is the expected intensity for the different models around that time.

Global models
00z GFS: 982 mb, 62 kt
00z ECMWF: 985 mb, 50 kt
06z ICON: 973 mb

Hurricane models
00z HWRF: 975 mb, 75 kt
00z HMON: 973 mb, 88 kt
00z HAFS-A: 970 mb, 74 kt
00z HAFS-B: 964 mb, 72 kt

So if Ernesto is on track to become a MH like most of the hurricane models are suggesting it should be in the 970 - 975 mb range. Anything below 970 mb would indicate faster-than-expected intensification.

[kevin]

06z models are very bullish and also show slower weakening than previous model cycles. Peak intensities in the next 36 hours below. We're getting in the short-term range now, so we're close to finding out whether these model runs will actually verify.

06z HWRF: 956 mb, 108 kt
06z HMON: 953 mb, 113 kt
06z HAFS-A: 961 mb, 100 kt
06z HAFS-B: 957 mb, 112 kt

[aspen]

6z hurricane models no longer show much or any re-intensification Sunday into Monday.