ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LarryWx]

Not strengthening very quickly but it has a large area of hurricane force winds to the east. Bermuda will have a decent stretch of 65kt+ winds. Luckily it shouldn’t be too bad as we are no stranger to direct cat 1-2 impacts- seems to occur every couple of years.

One thing that ACE and SS scale don’t reflect on well is diameter of strong winds/size of storm.

Someone should develop a system like ACE using pressure instead of wind speed as a metric.

Joe Bastardi has a power and impact scale that I think is an excellent idea.

[Teban54]

[HurricaneBelle]

Not strengthening very quickly but it has a large area of hurricane force winds to the east. Bermuda will have a decent stretch of 65kt+ winds. Luckily it shouldn’t be too bad as we are no stranger to direct cat 1-2 impacts- seems to occur every couple of years.

One thing that ACE and SS scale don’t reflect on well is diameter of strong winds/size of storm.

Someone should develop a system like ACE using pressure instead of wind speed as a metric.

While pressure seems more objective than wind speeds which have to be estimated or measured by a plane that can't be everywhere at one time, there is still the gradient to consider as intensity also depends on the contrast with the ambient pressures in the area. Also pressure itself doesn't cause damage, winds and surge generated by those winds do.

[Sciencerocks]

[ScottNAtlanta]

This storm has been trying to close off an eye for 2 days and failed every time. I don't think I have seen that in recent memory. Usually if dry air gets in, the storm mixes it out...not this one.

[hipshot]

This storm has been trying to close off an eye for 2 days and failed every time. I don't think I have seen that in recent memory. Usually if dry air gets in, the storm mixes it out...not this one.

The last frame sure looked like a closed eye was just about there. Let's see what it looks like on the next pass or 2.

[Travorum]

This storm has been trying to close off an eye for 2 days and failed every time. I don't think I have seen that in recent memory. Usually if dry air gets in, the storm mixes it out...not this one.

The last frame sure looked like a closed eye was just about there. Let's see what it looks like on the next pass or 2.

It's still got a bit to close off in the west as of an hour ago but it looks like a much more robust structure is developing.

[USTropics]

One thing that ACE and SS scale don’t reflect on well is diameter of strong winds/size of storm.

Someone should develop a system like ACE using pressure instead of wind speed as a metric.

While pressure seems more objective than wind speeds which have to be estimated or measured by a plane that can't be everywhere at one time, there is still the gradient to consider as intensity also depends on the contrast with the ambient pressures in the area. Also pressure itself doesn't cause damage, winds and surge generated by those winds do.

ACE is a cheap way to measure energy, and it can be used with limited points of obs (which makes it useful for climatology). There was a new method (and more effective at measuring the destructive nature of tropical cyclones) that was introduced in 2007 called integrated kinetic energy (IKE) or the ACE equivalent, TIKE (track integrated kinetic energy). This accounts for the structural integrity of the storm and radius of wind field for each quadrant when calculating energy. This is a really good article from some of my fav professors at FSU that goes more into details:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/141/7/mwr-d-12-00349.1.xml

[lilbump3000]

https://www.youtube.com/@w.o.f.weathero ... irmation=1

[Kazmit]

This is one BIG storm on satellite. If it were in the gulf it would fill the whole thing.

[hipshot]

This is one BIG storm on satellite. If it were in the gulf it would fill the whole thing.

https://i.ibb.co/XFNyHNB/Screen-Shot-2024-08-15-at-6-21-46-PM.png

Yep, we sure wouldn't want that in the Gulf, what a mess that would be.

[cheezyWXguy]

Latest recon pass shows a MUCH improved sw quadrant in terms of windfield.

[Travorum]

968.8 extrap, steady deepening since the last recon a few hours ago.

[Hurricane2022]

103 kt FL but smfr is only at 56 kt... I think we may have a low-end C2 now...

[Travorum]

103 kt FL but smfr is only at 56 kt... I think we may have a low-end C2 now...

SFMR closer in did have several 73kt readings, FL winds are likely taking a while to mix down given how big this thing is. Blending 73kt SFMR and 103kt FL could justify 80-85kts so I would agree, low-end C2 seems possible.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks a lot better organized than last mission. Looks a like a huge core is developing. May take awhile to get the winds up compared to pressure falls with a core/windfield that large, but assuming it's finally done dealing with dry air I think it should be able to reach at least 90-95kts

[Nimbus]

Looks a lot better organized than last mission. Looks a like a huge core is developing. May take awhile to get the winds up compared to pressure falls with a core/windfield that large, but assuming it's finally done dealing with dry air I think it should be able to reach at least 90-95kts

Is the trough undercutting the inflow with dry air?
Really can't tell from the water vapor loop but inflow seems drier from the northwest quadrant.

[Travorum]

80kts/970mb for the 8pm update, recon reports a 30nm spiral eyewall.

[Hurrilurker]

This storm has been trying to close off an eye for 2 days and failed every time. I don't think I have seen that in recent memory. Usually if dry air gets in, the storm mixes it out...not this one.

Yeah, it's very persistent and keeps getting injected on the west side. Good for Bermuda, anyway. If not for the dry air it could easily be a Cat 4-5 by the time it gets there. Not that I'd relax if I were in Bermuda of course.

[cheezyWXguy]

Recon shows that the windfield has made significant progress toward symmetrizing since this morning. If it can keep firing off towers tonight a major may not be so unachievable after all