WPAC: JONGDARI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

98W INVEST 240815 1200 22.7N 122.8E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 170600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/170600Z-180600ZAUG2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170151ZAUG2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 17AUG24 0000Z, TYPHOON 08W (AMPIL) WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N
143.9E, APPROXIMATELY 216 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS GUSTING TO 115 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPN33 PGTW 170300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
25.0N 122.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 122.3E, APPROXIMATELY 42NM EAST
OF TAIPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170430Z
HIMIWARI-9 IR IMAGE REVEALS AN AREA OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A VERY WEAKLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS IS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE, CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (25-30KTS) AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY HIGH SST (29-
31C). DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (98W) WILL TRANSIT NORTHEASTWARD AS IT SLOWLY DEVELOPS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13
TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 170600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 170600.
WARNING VALID 180600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 25N 124E ENE SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZAUG2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180151ZAUG2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 18AUG24 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 08W (AMPIL) WAS LOCATED NEAR
39.5N 152.5E, APPROXIMATELY 522 NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTPN33 PGTW 180300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
25.0N 122.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 126.2E, APPROXIMATELY 256 NM EAST
OF TAIPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 180150Z PARTIAL
ASCAT METOP-B 25KM IMAGE REVEALS AN AREA OF BROAD CONVECTION WITH A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH LOW (5-
10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND HIGH (30-
32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION (98W) WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSIT
NORTHWARD INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA AS IT SLOWLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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[Hayabusa]

WTPN21 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.3N 125.4E TO 29.0N 124.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 181500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 24.7N 125.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
24.9N 126.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 125.5E, APPROXIMATELY 158 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 181303Z ASCAT METOP-B 25KM IMAGE REVEAL A CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION
WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND STRONGER, NON-
WRAPPING GRADIENT WINDS OF UP TO 35 KNOTS PRESENT TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH LOW (05-10KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND HIGH
(30-32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98W WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSIT NORTHWARD INTO
THE EAST CHINA SEA AS IT DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
191500Z.
//
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WWJP27 RJTD 181200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 24.6N 125.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[Hayabusa]

T2409(Jongdari)
Issued at 2024/08/18 19:15 UTC
Analysis at 08/18 18 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N24°10′ (24.2°)
E125°25′ (125.4°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area SE280 km (150 NM)
NW165 km (90 NM)
Forecast for 08/19 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°20′ (26.3°)
E125°50′ (125.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 65 km (35 NM)
Forecast for 08/19 18 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N29°20′ (29.3°)
E125°20′ (125.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 95 km (50 NM)
Forecast for 08/20 18 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N35°55′ (35.9°)
E125°05′ (125.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 155 km (85 NM)
Forecast for 08/21 18 UTC
Grade TD
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N42°55′ (42.9°)
E126°25′ (126.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 220 km (120 NM)