2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[MarioProtVI]

Yes, I agree. I’m afraid all this “season is over” talk with lead to more complacency. It’s best to watch the tropics & looking at the long range models, things may get active soon. I hope everyone is using this time to make sure they’re prepared.

Sorry but I haven't read any posts from anyone who said "the season was over". Who said that?

"We're not going to have 25+ storms" seems like it's taken as "it's over" by a lot of users here, creating a swath of unhelpful grievance discourse in this thread, which is supposed to be about the model runs

Which on topic, Euro has three quasi-storms at ten days, and given this model's history usually means actual storms will start showing up soon.
https://i.imgur.com/WFDGc2n.png

Give it about a week and those will have begun uptrending to hurricanes

[jlauderdal]

Yea, I remember sitting at my computer when I heard their last prediction, my exact words were "oh come on now, get real" lol. There's such a big difference between being above average and them calling for a super insane hyper tropics on steroids active like they were calling for. Honestly I've never really liked the predictions anyway, because past results shows that the the accuracy record is very low, both on the high end and the low end. Honestly I think it would be better if they just said, "above average" or "below average" etc, instead of throwing out storm numbers.

Just gonna say, this has same vibes as that one user in NOLA calling season cancel a week before Katrina in 2005. wxman has lowered his NS numbers which is fair but ACE-wise, a hyperactive season is still very much on the table. We are still 3rd ACE-wise going into switch flip with a record +AMO and the transition to La Nina continuing. We also just literally had a record breaking C5 in June so I would hold off on claiming that forecasts were not accurate mid-August.

https://i.imgur.com/IAWUjIN.png

Yes, I agree. I’m afraid all this “season is over” talk will lead to more complacency. It’s best to watch the tropics & looking at the long range models, things may get active soon. I hope everyone is using this time to make sure they’re prepared.

This isnt season cancel talk, its a discussion about a seasonal prediction,plenty of season left including the peak. # of NS seems high to some of us but that is not a season cancel or all clear.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Just gonna say, this has same vibes as that one user in NOLA calling season cancel a week before Katrina in 2005. wxman has lowered his NS numbers which is fair but ACE-wise, a hyperactive season is still very much on the table. We are still 3rd ACE-wise going into switch flip with a record +AMO and the transition to La Nina continuing. We also just literally had a record breaking C5 in June so I would hold off on claiming that forecasts were not accurate mid-August.

https://i.imgur.com/IAWUjIN.png

Yes, I agree. I’m afraid all this “season is over” talk will lead to more complacency. It’s best to watch the tropics & looking at the long range models, things may get active soon. I hope everyone is using this time to make sure they’re prepared.

This isnt season cancel talk, its a discussion about a seasonal prediction,plenty of season left including the peak. # of NS seems high to some of us but that is not a season cancel or all clear.

This isnt Reddit, we dont need the sort of ice cold moderation from power hungry mods with no lives telling us what we can talk about and we should be able discuss whatever we want within reason of the subject. As of now nothing is happening that would happen is a serouis threat anywhere. This is within range of the discussion but hey...sue me if im outta place. Its not a season cancel but its trending that way

No need to worry about complacency, the situation is fluid. No one cares right now anyway about the tropics anyway and wont pay a lick of attention until 5 days out

[TallyTracker]

Sorry but I haven't read any posts from anyone who said "the season was over". Who said that?

"We're not going to have 25+ storms" seems like it's taken as "it's over" by a lot of users here, creating a swath of unhelpful grievance discourse in this thread, which is supposed to be about the model runs

Which on topic, Euro has three quasi-storms at ten days, and given this model's history usually means actual storms will start showing up soon.
https://i.imgur.com/WFDGc2n.png

Give it about a week and those will have begun uptrending to hurricanes

I agree! I’ve noticed that with the models this year as well. I would be stunned to not have a couple of more storms this month considering there is 15 more days.

[cheezyWXguy]

Yes, I agree. I’m afraid all this “season is over” talk will lead to more complacency. It’s best to watch the tropics & looking at the long range models, things may get active soon. I hope everyone is using this time to make sure they’re prepared.

This isnt season cancel talk, its a discussion about a seasonal prediction,plenty of season left including the peak. # of NS seems high to some of us but that is not a season cancel or all clear.

This isnt Reddit, we dont need the sort of ice cold moderation from power hungry mods with no lives telling us what we can talk about and we should be able discuss whatever we want within reason of the subject. As of now nothing is happening that would happen is a serouis threat anywhere. This is within range of the discussion but hey...sue me if im outta place. Its not a season cancel but its trending that way

No need to worry about complacency, the situation is fluid. No one cares right now anyway about the tropics anyway and wont pay a lick of attention until 5 days out

The reason this place isn’t Reddit is specifically because of the moderation and guidelines around discussion. These last few pages are generally near the upper end of drama on this site, which is pretty mild in comparison to places like Reddit or twitter. Conversations here typically flow well because assertions, even incorrect ones, tend to be backed by some form of data or reference while the baseless/sensational ones get called out or removed. Though I’m not really sure why you bring up moderation to begin with, I don’t even see any posts from moderators trying to curb discussion.

To the point though, of all the metrics to judge a seasonal forecast on, named storms has to be the most arbitrary one, and to suggest that it’s “trending that way” toward a season cancel is totally baseless and does in fact foster complacency. 2004 and 2017 had less than 20 storms and pumped out 220+ ACE because they had so many “quality” storms. For anyone living outside of Central America or Louisiana, a 2020 season is much preferable to either of those.

[weeniepatrol]

This isnt Reddit, we dont need the sort of ice cold moderation from power hungry mods with no lives telling us what we can talk about and we should be able discuss whatever we want within reason of the subject. As of now nothing is happening that would happen is a serouis threat anywhere. This is within range of the discussion but hey...sue me if im outta place. Its not a season cancel but its trending that way

No need to worry about complacency, the situation is fluid. No one cares right now anyway about the tropics anyway and wont pay a lick of attention until 5 days out

To be honest, in my opinion moderation is actually looser on reddit (r/tropicalweather and especially r/hurricane). As a result... the discussion is FAR lower quality and less focused. I prefer this site by miles and the mods do a great job here in terms of balance.


Anyways, things do seem more quiet than usual after Ernesto, but then again we are entering the time of year when the Atlantic goes from nada on the models to TC outbreak in a matter of days. Happens almost every year, lol. The only thing that surprises me, to be honest, is the forecast EPAC activity, given the building Nina, gargantuan trade burst, and Atlantic MJO. Alas I suppose it wasn't going to remain at 15 units of ACE forever

[Stratton23]

icon 00z has a weak surface low circulation forming in the central gulf a week from tommorow

[tolakram]

Yes, I agree. I’m afraid all this “season is over” talk will lead to more complacency. It’s best to watch the tropics & looking at the long range models, things may get active soon. I hope everyone is using this time to make sure they’re prepared.

This isnt season cancel talk, its a discussion about a seasonal prediction,plenty of season left including the peak. # of NS seems high to some of us but that is not a season cancel or all clear.

This isnt Reddit, we dont need the sort of ice cold moderation from power hungry mods with no lives telling us what we can talk about and we should be able discuss whatever we want within reason of the subject. As of now nothing is happening that would happen is a serouis threat anywhere. This is within range of the discussion but hey...sue me if im outta place. Its not a season cancel but its trending that way

No need to worry about complacency, the situation is fluid. No one cares right now anyway about the tropics anyway and wont pay a lick of attention until 5 days out

I'll be happy to provide quick hot moderation if you like.

For everyone:

People talk about things, do it without getting angry and do it without assigning intent to the other poster. We are full of enthusiast who will freak out whenever one wonders if the season will be slower than thought. Apparently only the same or worse is allowed. The opinion is fine, as long as you present it respectfully. Look how many season cancel posts are by people saying someone else cancelled it rather than an actual season cancel post

As far as the season goes, let's keep that discussion to the other thread. If the models are dead and you want to make a seasonal comment go here: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=123889&p=3081292#p3081292

[Teban54]

0z EPS

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/weatherman_aaa/status/1824629093327077697

[cheezyWXguy]

6z GEFS is showing something. It’s not a particularly strong signal yet, but there are a couple of notably strong members. Most if not all of the members showing development in the long range appear to originate from a wave that comes off of Africa in around 9 days.

Edit: in fact, the latest runs of the geps and eps show it too, gefs is probably the weakest signal of the 3

[Category5Kaiju]

0z EPS
https://i.postimg.cc/KcpwnZJx/ecens-2024-08-17-00-Z-240-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png
https://i.postimg.cc/J0SpSz2X/eps-ememb-lowlocs-atl-fh0-360.gif

Merely a day or two ago, there was nothing forecast to be in the MDR on 8/27/2024. Now look at what's changed.

I swear, if I received a dime for every instance of the models showing nothing and then suddenly showing something for the same timeframe during the August pattern flip in the Atlantic, I would be richer than Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk

[Ubuntwo]

0z EPS
https://i.postimg.cc/KcpwnZJx/ecens-2024-08-17-00-Z-240-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png
https://i.postimg.cc/J0SpSz2X/eps-ememb-lowlocs-atl-fh0-360.gif

Merely a day or two ago, there was nothing forecast to be in the MDR on 8/27/2024. Now look at what's changed.

I swear, if I received a dime for every instance of the models showing nothing and then suddenly showing something for the same timeframe during the August pattern flip in the Atlantic, I would be richer than Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk

Not to detract from your point, but the EPS first lit up with this wave on Wednesday, and that run had similar levels of support (60%+).

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The "silent" period reminds me of 2017 a bit right before Harvey regenerated. Little model support for much. And then once Harvey regenerated in the Gulf, the Atlantic seemed to pop off.

[REDHurricane]

Lol this is only my third year on S2K and I'm smiling at this discussion because I can already see how it comes up every single hurricane season like clockwork from around August 10-20. Don't worry, my friends (or maybe have a healthy amount of worry if you live in a hurricane-prone area), the hurricanes are coming -- unless the AMOC spontaneously collapses or the Yellowstone supervolcano erupts within the next 14 weeks or something, we are going to see a significant uptick in activity once the proverbial switch is flipped near the end of this month.

Mid-range models at this specific time of the year are practically worthless, so I'm not even paying attention to them right now for anything more than 7 days out. This is the perfect time to just wait and see what happens in the coming days/weeks, take a few deep breaths, and get ready for the real action to begin soon.

[Weathertracker96]

12z Icon has a low in the MDR on August 25th. It'll be interesting to see if future runs show this. Seems like late August might be when things start to heat up.

[USTropics]

I've looked into the African InterTropical Front (ITF) position since 1990, and the mean eastern extent is significantly farther north compared to climatology for the first 10 days of August. The average mean position is currently at 19.95N, with the only year surpassing this being 2023 (20.45). List of years where the eastern extent was this far north:

Code: Select all

2023 - 20.43N
2024 - 19.95N
2013 - 19.73N
2018 - 19.50N
2010 - 19.05N
1994 - 18.95N
2021 - 18.68N

For comparison, here is a chart with precipitable rate anomalies from July 10th - August 10th 2024. The blue line is the observed ITF position for this time period for 2024, the red line is the climatological position of the past 30 years, and the green line is 5 years I've selected where we observed 3+ named storms during this time period (1995, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2020):


Looking at just the eastern extent for the first 10 days of August, we can see how anomalously further north this is:


Why is this so important? The formation of African Easterly Waves (AEWs) originate in the far eastern regions of Africa and propagate along this frontal axis. Not only does this mean a further north track, but a northern amplification of the ITF in this location puts the axis over some of the most arid regions of Africa like Chad:


One culprit has been the velocity potential configuration. Looking at VP 200mb anomaly values for those 5 active years listed above, we can see we had significant forcing off the eastern African coastline:


Compare this to 2024, and we've had the opposite, with more forcing focused to the northeast over southern Asia:


What does this mean for the rest of the hurricane season? Really, not much, but explains how July and the first 2-3 weeks of August we typically don't see robust activity. We can see in the climatological chart for the ITF position that this time period is usually the peak of the northern latitude extent, and the ITF position will being to descend towards the equator. We can also see in some of those years where activity wasn't robust in July/first part of August (see 2010 and 2021 in particular), we can still have significant activity the rest of the season.

[zzzh]

12z EC has a TD/TS in the Gulf by 240h

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Yes the quality of discussion here in leagues above reddit. This place is an old internet outpost, a rarity. We thank the moderation staff and owners of the site for curating the discussions and not the other way around.


Anyway there is stuff that bears watching here 10 days out. Florida man is hoping we just get a resevpir top off and nothing else. Worth watching as the week moves on

[skyline385]

Euro showing a vortmax in the GoM from the remnants of a wave that left Africa 2 days ago (currently at 27W). GFS had it on earlier runs when the wave was just about to come offshore but then weakened it. The story feels exactly similar to Debby where GFS caught on to first followed by Euro, including the path the wave takes to get into the GoM.





Original GFS run on 15/0z which had caught on this wave developing in the GoM