ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://i.imgur.com/faKrdgX.png


from the 5pm discussion

The structure of Ernesto this afternoon has continued to improve,
with a more distinct eye becoming apparent on recent visible and
infrared satellite images. This improving inner-core structure is
also exhibited in a 1808 UTC GMI microwave pass that also showed a
closed cyan ring on the 37-GHz color composite channel, which could
be a harbinger for more significant intensification.

I wholeheartedly believe the assessed intensity of 65 kt is ~15-20 kt too low

I agree. This is about as good as it has looked and now with a much smaller eye

[Travorum]

https://i.imgur.com/faKrdgX.png


from the 5pm discussion

The structure of Ernesto this afternoon has continued to improve,
with a more distinct eye becoming apparent on recent visible and
infrared satellite images. This improving inner-core structure is
also exhibited in a 1808 UTC GMI microwave pass that also showed a
closed cyan ring on the 37-GHz color composite channel, which could
be a harbinger for more significant intensification.

I wholeheartedly believe the assessed intensity of 65 kt is ~15-20 kt too low

The cyan ring in question:


And yeah, given the visual appearance of this thing and the fact that the eye is no longer 100 miles across 65kts feels to low. A little better than that 35kt Dvorak fix though

[Kingarabian]

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/tropical-data/2024/bulletins/natl/20240818180005L.html

A. 05L (ERNESTO)

B. 18/1800Z

C. 36.4N

D. 62.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...7/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS 2.5 DUE
TO A STEADY 24 HOUR TREND. THE PT AGREES. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET
DUE TO THE FLUCTUATING CONVECTION.

You heard it here first, folks!

What a bad fix lol.

[Kazmit]

I think it has a shot of becoming a major, I mean look at the thing. Clearly not 65kts.

[cycloneye]

Surely there is something that is not right about the intensity, and I am sure, the post season TCR will fix that.

[aspen]

This was probably 65 kt at 11am and around 75-85 kt at 5pm. Probably making a run at Cat 2 status again. Not sure if RI to MH status is achievable at such a high latitude, though.

[Teban54]

Who would have thought Ernesto would look the best it ever did when it's almost at 40N?

[cheezyWXguy]

I feel like that’s impressively deep convection for how far north it is, my personal guess is 80kt now. If those convective bursts can reasonably stabilize into a ring around the eye it would probably be fair to call it a major at that point if all we have to go by is appearance.

[aspen]

If the hurricane models are right, Ernesto should have until midday or early afternoon tomorrow to continue intensifying. However, none of the 18z models have properly initialized Ernesto’s current structure. The HAFS-B gets the closest and shows a 100-105 kt Cat 3 peak tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

AL, 05, 2024081900, , BEST, 0, 377N, 620W, 70, 975, HU

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal052024.dat

[Category5Kaiju]

Wait I haven't been following this storm recently but....WHAT?! It's a strengthening hurricane again?

[AnnularCane]

Wait I haven't been following this storm recently but....WHAT?! It's a strengthening hurricane again?

Nobody told him the season is cancelled, I guess.

[hipshot]

AL, 05, 2024081900, , BEST, 0, 377N, 620W, 70, 975, HU

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal052024.dat

Can someone tell me where this hurricane is going? It isn't going to do some crazy loop is it?

[Hammy]

Now that there's no land in the path, lets see if we can get a major hurricane before this is done

[skyline385]

Now that there's no land in the path, lets see if we can get a major hurricane before this is done

It has only 12 hours before it crosses the 26C isotherm and ET transition starts so highly unlikely imo.

[aspen]

70 kt is likely still too low. This definitely looks like at least 75 kt, maybe approaching Cat 2 intensity.

[Nuno]

Yeah this is a bit JTWC-esque. I hope Ernie gets his due in the postseason reanalysis. I know they blended to 70kt but they really could've gone with 75kt. It's not threatening land at this point.

[cheezyWXguy]

Appearance is better than ever. Really feels like they’re being conservative with intensity. I’ve seen a lot of cat2s that have looked worse than this

[Teban54]

Appearance is better than ever. Really feels like they’re being conservative with intensity. I’ve seen a lot of cat2s that have looked worse than this

Ernesto itself as a Cat 2 looked worse than this:





(The Cat 2 photo was due to kevin, and that was considered "the best Ernesto has looked so far".)

[Teban54]

Keeps getting better. I'm rooting for a major despite how unlikely that is.