2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Stratton23]

It doesnt really matter if we make the forecasted numbers or not, all it takes is one system to be a bad season for some, and its already been bern a bad season here in Texas from beryl, i am expecting several systems to develop in the caribbean and make it to the gulf, and i expect the SE US will see threats as well, impacts matter more than number of storms

[Hurricane2022]

12z EPS is back with the NATL, the 0z was likely an anomaly and I wanted to see if 12z confirmed it which it didnt and considering switch flip is approaching, it should be safe to toss out that run for now.

https://i.imgur.com/xWsxzaw.gif

https://i.imgur.com/S2PblSJ.png

If random members are popping random storms all over the basin, and many of the 'storms' struggle to get below 1010 mb, than the 50 Euro ensembles aren't really screaming the switch will be thrown soon. At best, conditions will get less hostile in 2 weeks. GFS and Canadian ensembles show shear going from extremely unfavorable to neutral, which this time of year means not terrible. I suspect this is why the Euro weeklies wait until September to start showing TCs.
https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExbHkza2NxNjd5azJ3ZWh4MXBxYmRpdG1zZWUwZXB4MWJpOWl5NzNqMCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/k4oq5dRqkulzo9YP1i/giphy.gif

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my impression of the models and MDR development

"WOLF WOLF"

They've cried wolf a bit too often for me to take their forecasts of genesis seriously

Well, soooooo......?

[otowntiger]

its not unknown factors, the waves are simply coming off at a latitude where dry- stable air lurks which kills these waves,thats going to be changing soon when the ITCZ shifts back south, the switch is coming, its no longer an “ IF” its when, because it is coming for sure

Ok maybe not unknown but certainly unpredicted, which in a way involves unknown factors that caused these known factors to suppress the season as we head directly into the heart of the season.

[Stratton23]

I think the Euro and its EPS have a more accurate depiction on whats going to happen, even the GEFS and GEPS are more in line with them, the operational GFS is completely useless beyond 5 days and its not correctly seeing this pattern

[TomballEd]

12z EPS is back with the NATL, the 0z was likely an anomaly and I wanted to see if 12z confirmed it which it didnt and considering switch flip is approaching, it should be safe to toss out that run for now.

https://i.imgur.com/xWsxzaw.gif

https://i.imgur.com/S2PblSJ.png

If random members are popping random storms all over the basin, and many of the 'storms' struggle to get below 1010 mb, than the 50 Euro ensembles aren't really screaming the switch will be thrown soon. At best, conditions will get less hostile in 2 weeks. GFS and Canadian ensembles show shear going from extremely unfavorable to neutral, which this time of year means not terrible. I suspect this is why the Euro weeklies wait until September to start showing TCs.
https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExbHkza2NxNjd5azJ3ZWh4MXBxYmRpdG1zZWUwZXB4MWJpOWl5NzNqMCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/k4oq5dRqkulzo9YP1i/giphy.gif

_____________

my impression of the models and MDR development

"WOLF WOLF"

They've cried wolf a bit too often for me to take their forecasts of genesis seriously

https://imageshack.com/i/pmSGb1Hsp

Well, soooooo......?

Well, so, what does 2017, when there had already been 3 hurricanes in August by this date, have to do with 2024? We've had 1 hurricane, not a major, this month and the next supportable chance of a TC is at the very end of the month.

Can you post 2005 or 2020 to prove August is about to flip? BTW, a S-O-N heavy season is still possible (speaking of 2020).

[DunedinDave]

Surprised that we are on the verge of entering the peak of what’s supposed to be an extremely busy hurricane season and it doesn’t seem like any of the major models are predicting anything over the next couple of weeks. Really thought there would be storms popping up everywhere on the models but doesn’t look that way.

[Hurricane2022]

Surprised that we are on the verge of entering the peak of what’s supposed to be an extremely busy hurricane season and it doesn’t seem like any of the major models are predicting anything over the next couple of weeks. Really thought there would be storms popping up everywhere on the models but doesn’t look that way.

Oh god

[Ubuntwo]

If random members are popping random storms all over the basin, and many of the 'storms' struggle to get below 1010 mb, than the 50 Euro ensembles aren't really screaming the switch will be thrown soon. At best, conditions will get less hostile in 2 weeks. GFS and Canadian ensembles show shear going from extremely unfavorable to neutral, which this time of year means not terrible. I suspect this is why the Euro weeklies wait until September to start showing TCs.
https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExbHkza2NxNjd5azJ3ZWh4MXBxYmRpdG1zZWUwZXB4MWJpOWl5NzNqMCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/k4oq5dRqkulzo9YP1i/giphy.gif

_____________

my impression of the models and MDR development

"WOLF WOLF"

They've cried wolf a bit too often for me to take their forecasts of genesis seriously

https://imageshack.com/i/pmSGb1Hsp

Well, soooooo......?

Well, so, what does 2017, when there had already been 3 hurricanes in August by this date, have to do with 2024? We've had 1 hurricane, not a major, this month and the next supportable chance of a TC is at the very end of the month.

Can you post 2005 or 2020 to prove August is about to flip? BTW, a S-O-N heavy season is still possible (speaking of 2020).

We have had two, not one, August hurricanes this year.

[AnnularCane]

_____________

https://imageshack.com/i/pmSGb1Hsp

Well, soooooo......?

Well, so, what does 2017, when there had already been 3 hurricanes in August by this date, have to do with 2024? We've had 1 hurricane, not a major, this month and the next supportable chance of a TC is at the very end of the month.

Can you post 2005 or 2020 to prove August is about to flip? BTW, a S-O-N heavy season is still possible (speaking of 2020).

We have had two, not one, August hurricanes this year.

Also unless I'm missing something, 2017 had two hurricanes by this date, not three.

[Stratton23]

DunedInDave you are putting too much focus on the operational models which are completely useless in the long range, ensembles are the way to go and they have a much different picture

[AnnularCane]

I haven't seen any models today. What exactly happened to trigger this sudden bout of season cancelling?

[emeraldislenc]

People are just over reacting

[Travorum]

Well, so, what does 2017, when there had already been 3 hurricanes in August by this date, have to do with 2024? We've had 1 hurricane, not a major, this month and the next supportable chance of a TC is at the very end of the month.

Can you post 2005 or 2020 to prove August is about to flip? BTW, a S-O-N heavy season is still possible (speaking of 2020).

We have had two, not one, August hurricanes this year.

Also unless I'm missing something, 2017 had two hurricanes by this date, not three.

Yep, 2017 had C1 Franklin and C2 Gert, Harvey wouldn't strengthen to hurricane intensity until August 24.

[otowntiger]

I haven't seen any models today. What exactly happened to trigger this sudden bout of season cancelling?

. Nothing specific, other than we are just two days from the infamous ‘flipping of the “switch”’ and models are showing zilch pushing well into the heart of the hurricane season that has long been advertised as a hyperactive if not, record breaking season. In a ‘normal’ season that would be notable but in this season very surprising.

[toad strangler]

I haven't seen any models today. What exactly happened to trigger this sudden bout of season cancelling?

. Nothing specific, other than we are just two days from the infamous ‘flipping of the “switch”’ and models are showing zilch pushing well into the heart of the hurricane season that has long been advertised as a hyperactive if not, record breaking season. In a ‘normal’ season that would be notable but in this season very surprising.

All the season needs to do from this day forward is to follow climatological norm from here on out to reach the standard hyperactive threshold. Others have stated this too but it gets lost in the annual downcast haze.

[Teban54]

I haven't seen any models today. What exactly happened to trigger this sudden bout of season cancelling?

. Nothing specific, other than we are just two days from the infamous ‘flipping of the “switch”’ and models are showing zilch pushing well into the heart of the hurricane season that has long been advertised as a hyperactive if not, record breaking season. In a ‘normal’ season that would be notable but in this season very surprising.

All the season needs to do from this day forward is to follow climatological norm from here on out to reach the standard hyperactive threshold. Others have stated this too but it gets lost in the annual downcast haze.

To spell this out more explicitly, here's how we're doing as of August 18, 3pm MT (thanks to CSU), compared to 1991-2020 climo (*) on every metric:

• Named storms: 5 this year; Climo 4.4 by today, 10.0 after today
• NS days: 23.0 this year; Climo 14.0 by today, 55.4 after today
• Hurricanes: 3 this year; Climo 1.3 by today, 5.9 after today
• H days: 10.5 this year; Climo 2.9 by today, 25.7 after today
• Major hurricanes: 1 this year; Climo 0.3 by today, 2.9 after today
• MH days: 4.5 this year; Climo 0.5 by today, 6.9 after today
• ACE: 51.8 this year; Climo 17.0 by today, 106.0 after today

So if we strictly follow the climo from tomorrow onwards, we will end with:

• NS/H/MH counts: 15.0 / 8.9 / 3.9
• NS/H/MH days: 78.4 / 36.2 / 11.4
• ACE: 157.8

157.8 ACE is barely a hair away from NOAA's threshold of 159.6 (*) for "extremely active" seasons. A 15/9/4 season would also be basically in line with the mean of above-average seasons (those with ACE >= 126.1), which means even if this were to happen, we'd still have higher quality than a typical above-average season.

Keep in mind, this is all assuming we're exactly average from here onward. Many recent seasons had negligible ACE on August 18, and still finished above or well above the 106.0 remaining ACE that would be expected from a typical 1991-2020 season, as well as the 10.0 named storms. Most of them had much less favorable seasonal indicators, SSTs included.

(*) Note that CSU only uses 1991-2020 climo as is the norm today, and the NOAA page does mention the 1991-2020 climo; however, NOAA decided to use 1951-2020 climo to derive its ACE thresholds, in order to give a more balanced representation of the +AMO and -AMO eras. The 159.6 threshold is 165% of the 1951-2020 median; if the same criterion is applied to the 1991-2020 climo, it would result in a hyperactivity threshold of 213.3, which would be way too high and exclude every year in the period other than 2005, 1995, 2004 and 2017.

[Jr0d]

Surprised that we are on the verge of entering the peak of what’s supposed to be an extremely busy hurricane season and it doesn’t seem like any of the major models are predicting anything over the next couple of weeks. Really thought there would be storms popping up everywhere on the models but doesn’t look that way.

Give it a week or 2...

Even in 2005 folks, shortly before Katrina...heck even when Katrina was a tropical storm east of Florida and 'under performing' we heard the same stuff...every hyperactive season seems to have a few weeks that are uneventful despite being peak season.

[Stratton23]

The last time I said models aren’t showing anything, a few weeks later I ended up with 30 inches of rain in my backyard from harvey… Things can change on a flip of a coin in a hurry

[tolakram]

THIS IS THE GLOBAL MODELS THREAD. Seasonal posts go in the seasonal thread, not here please.

[Category5Kaiju]

Hmm...