EPAC: INVEST 90E - Discussion

[Subtrop]

EP, 90, 2024081818, , BEST, 0, 106N, 1375W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 110, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 021, SPAWNINVEST, ep732024 to ep902024,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep902024.dat

[Kingarabian]

NCEP models are most bullish with this. They show weaker 200mb westerly wind anomalies over the CPAC.



Could be a solid ACE maker if it can duck the Hawaiian islands and move west.

[Yellow Evan]

Whatever comes from this and a disturbance to the east is a potential hurricane to around 150W. Shear probably gets to it before Hawaii unless this gets strong enough to push it back (like Lane).

[DorkyMcDorkface]

It'll inevitably get sheared as it approaches Hawaii like virtually every storm that has taken this trajectory but it's definitely still something they need to watch, especially if it gets stronger in the nearer term.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS has a favorable shear environment for a few days before it runs into the TUTT. Both this and Gilma could be dual hurricanes.

Outside of faster trades this weekend, probably too soon to say anything with regards to Hawaii's impacts.

[Kingarabian]

Latest GFS is now ducking the Hawaiian Islands to the south before it moves NNW. Then drifts west after it becomes decapitated by the shear.

[Kingarabian]

Euro/CMC/ICON have this sheared and south of Hawaii by day 7. Solid Cat.1 hit on the Big Island on the 06z GFS.