2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[skyline385]

Pretty active GEFS atleast but deterministic models needs to get onboard

[otowntiger]

And the operational globals models struggles continue, everything is strung out again on these runs, its a safe bet to say they are lost, eventually they will catch on to a wave. but for right now they are definitely lost

. Is it possible that they just may be correctly depicting the lack of cyclonic genesis over the next couple weeks?

[jlauderdal]

Forget what I said earlier today about the models lighting up again lol. All other operational GFS/Euro runs today haven’t shown the TCs they did this morning.

I think my prediction of a near record or record season was a mistake, live and learn.

The season goes until Dec. 1. Let's not get too far ahead, but the NS counts appear to be on track for a bust. That will be mostly forgotten if we get a major landfalling hurricane.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

And the operational globals models struggles continue, everything is strung out again on these runs, its a safe bet to say they are lost, eventually they will catch on to a wave. but for right now they are definitely lost

. Is it possible that they just may be correctly depicting the lack of cyclonic genesis over the next couple weeks?

Very possible

[toad strangler]

And the operational globals models struggles continue, everything is strung out again on these runs, its a safe bet to say they are lost, eventually they will catch on to a wave. but for right now they are definitely lost

. Is it possible that they just may be correctly depicting the lack of cyclonic genesis over the next couple weeks?

Very possible

Ya, good luck with that. Euro and GFS ensembles both show robust activity activity late. What is happening is a lag of about 7-10 days on the 'ol switch. Mother nature doesn't stare at a calendar.
With that said, I'll take a gigantic forecast bust with open arms. I just don't believe it.

[aspen]

. Is it possible that they just may be correctly depicting the lack of cyclonic genesis over the next couple weeks?

Very possible

Ya, good luck with that. Euro and GFS ensembles both show robust activity activity late. What is happening is a lag of about 7-10 days on the 'ol switch. Mother nature doesn't stare at a calendar.
With that said, I'll take a gigantic forecast bust with open arms. I just don't believe it.

At the very least, those 20-25 NS forecasts are likely to bust. We’d need near-record levels of TCG in September and October to match those forecasts.

[Stratton23]

otowntiger nope, thats very unlikely

[Category5Kaiju]

And the operational globals models struggles continue, everything is strung out again on these runs, its a safe bet to say they are lost, eventually they will catch on to a wave. but for right now they are definitely lost

. Is it possible that they just may be correctly depicting the lack of cyclonic genesis over the next couple weeks?

I trust ensembles over oeprational models; ensembles show many members, and if a decent number of them show something forming consistently, then the chances are they are on to something. Skyline just pointed this out, how the ensembles are picking up on activity later this month.

For reasons that I'm not entirely aware of, operational models seem to be much more volatile and sensitive, which explains how you can get a Category 4 on one run and then absolutely nothing on merely the next run.

[Bigtenfan]

I am pretty uneducated in this so please bear with me.

From what I can see none of the operational models show much of anything. Not just the GFS and EC. The ensembles while clearly looking busier than the operational models do not look like I would expect as we go into the peak of a predicted hyperactive season. Am I missing something?

[toad strangler]

I am pretty uneducated in this so please bear with me.

From what I can see none of the operational models show much of anything. Not just the GFS and EC. The ensembles while clearly looking busier than the operational models do not look like I would expect as we go into the peak of a predicted hyperactive season. Am I missing something?

Technically, the season has to just follow standard ACE climo the rest of the way to meet minimum threshold for hyperactive classification. That's not a tall order. Late switch/peak or not. ACE has nothing to do with STORM COUNT though. I get it, many focus on that. It sure is possible the NS forecasts bust. But I wouldn't count out ACE and that's what is primarily used to classify the activity of the entire season.

[Teban54]

And the operational globals models struggles continue, everything is strung out again on these runs, its a safe bet to say they are lost, eventually they will catch on to a wave. but for right now they are definitely lost

. Is it possible that they just may be correctly depicting the lack of cyclonic genesis over the next couple weeks?

I mean, nothing is impossible and you're entitled to your opinions, but it's generally accepted from past years that:

• 384-day models will almost never play out exactly, whether they show development or not
• Models often have the tendency to be stuck in existing unfavorable conditions for too long, especially during periods when they become more favorable
• Ensembles are better than operational models in picking up development signals and pattern changes

Given all this and the expectation of the ITCZ moving south (as climo suggests), I find it incredibly unlikely that we won't have a single TC formation within the next 384 hours.

[wxman57]

I found a comparison between this time in 2023 vs. now using the NHC 7-day outlook graphic so I made my own. Quite a difference. After August 19 in 2023, there were 3 storms that formed in late August, 6 in September and 2 in October. That's 11 named storms after August 19th. This year, nothing. Unlikely we'll see any additional storms in August and early September is looking dead, too. We could reach the peak of the season (Sept 10) with only 5-6 named storms. I love it! Days off this time of year are a luxury.

I read Klotzbach's season update but I think something is being missed. Warm water - check. Low wind shear - maybe. As for a favorable environment - nope. Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic are dominated by dry, sinking air. It doesn't matter how warm the water is. If the atmosphere isn't favorable then hurricanes struggle to develop. I'm thinking my revised numbers of 18/8/4 may be too high. I'm just hoping for the current pattern to continue and any additional storms to stay out to sea. Perhaps those global models indicating no development are correct. Looking for an ensemble member somewhere to indicate development? Ha!

https://wxman57.com/images/NHC7Day.JPG



Tropical Atlantic Instability is way below normal:
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

[toad strangler]

I found a comparison between this time in 2023 vs. now using the NHC 7-day outlook graphic so I made my own. Quite a difference. After August 19 in 2023, there were 3 storms that formed in late August, 6 in September and 2 in October. That's 11 named storms after August 19th. This year, nothing. Unlikely we'll see any additional storms in August and early September is looking dead, too. We could reach the peak of the season (Sept 10) with only 5-6 named storms. I love it! Days off this time of year are a luxury.

I read Klotzbach's season update but I think something is being missed. Warm water - check. Low wind shear - maybe. As for a favorable environment - nope. Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic are dominated by dry, sinking air. It doesn't matter how warm the water is. If the atmosphere isn't favorable then hurricanes struggle to develop. I'm thinking my revised numbers of 18/8/4 may be too high. I'm just hoping for the current pattern to continue and any additional storms to stay out to sea. Perhaps those global models indicating no development are correct. Looking for an ensemble member somewhere to indicate development? Ha!

"A" ensemble member? WHo is doing that?

[wxman57]

I found a comparison between this time in 2023 vs. now using the NHC 7-day outlook graphic so I made my own. Quite a difference. After August 19 in 2023, there were 3 storms that formed in late August, 6 in September and 2 in October. That's 11 named storms after August 19th. This year, nothing. Unlikely we'll see any additional storms in August and early September is looking dead, too. We could reach the peak of the season (Sept 10) with only 5-6 named storms. I love it! Days off this time of year are a luxury.

I read Klotzbach's season update but I think something is being missed. Warm water - check. Low wind shear - maybe. As for a favorable environment - nope. Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic are dominated by dry, sinking air. It doesn't matter how warm the water is. If the atmosphere isn't favorable then hurricanes struggle to develop. I'm thinking my revised numbers of 18/8/4 may be too high. I'm just hoping for the current pattern to continue and any additional storms to stay out to sea. Perhaps those global models indicating no development are correct. Looking for an ensemble member somewhere to indicate development? Ha!

"A" ensemble member? Who is doing that?

Hmm, I wonder...

I used to be like many of you here. I couldn't wait for the next hurricane season (since the early 1960s), wanting to experience a hurricane. Been there, done that. I've seen the devastation, pain, and hardships that they cause (in my family). Now, I look forward to a quiet season with no impacts. I'm hoping that we can make it through the season with no further hurricane impacts. However, watch out over in the southeast U.S. and NE Caribbean later in September.

[chris_fit]

Wow, pretty much nothing on the 06Z GFS and 00Z EURO going into early Sept.

[toad strangler]

In other news…

 https://twitter.com/nwscpc/status/1825966710912070026

[Ubuntwo]

Latest GFS runs with no development are intriguing. The high easterlies in the MDR from MJO phasing explain the lack of activity there, but there are plenty of waves sneaking through into the western basin. And just about all of these waves are dealing with mild levels of shear - and I count two with a nice insulated moist pocket. Is the GFS picking up on some missing thermodynamic sauce? Overall environmental stability?

Even more interesting is the delta between the ensembles and the operational. About 80% of members have some sort of AEW development in the 16-day range, this has been consistent across several runs. Something’s gotta give.

[toad strangler]

I found a comparison between this time in 2023 vs. now using the NHC 7-day outlook graphic so I made my own. Quite a difference. After August 19 in 2023, there were 3 storms that formed in late August, 6 in September and 2 in October. That's 11 named storms after August 19th. This year, nothing. Unlikely we'll see any additional storms in August and early September is looking dead, too. We could reach the peak of the season (Sept 10) with only 5-6 named storms. I love it! Days off this time of year are a luxury.

I read Klotzbach's season update but I think something is being missed. Warm water - check. Low wind shear - maybe. As for a favorable environment - nope. Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic are dominated by dry, sinking air. It doesn't matter how warm the water is. If the atmosphere isn't favorable then hurricanes struggle to develop. I'm thinking my revised numbers of 18/8/4 may be too high. I'm just hoping for the current pattern to continue and any additional storms to stay out to sea. Perhaps those global models indicating no development are correct. Looking for an ensemble member somewhere to indicate development? Ha!

"A" ensemble member? Who is doing that?

Hmm, I wonder...

I used to be like many of you here. I couldn't wait for the next hurricane season (since the early 1960s), wanting to experience a hurricane. Been there, done that. I've seen the devastation, pain, and hardships that they cause (in my family). Now, I look forward to a quiet season with no impacts. I'm hoping that we can make it through the season with no further hurricane impacts. However, watch out over in the southeast U.S. and NE Caribbean later in September.

Ha! Single ensemble members? Not me good sir. BTW I don't want a storm. I have a brand new roof. I would be an idiot to wish that on myself or anyone for that matter! If the seasonal forecasts bust as you are hedging on then that's just fine by me

[Stormlover70]

I found a comparison between this time in 2023 vs. now using the NHC 7-day outlook graphic so I made my own. Quite a difference. After August 19 in 2023, there were 3 storms that formed in late August, 6 in September and 2 in October. That's 11 named storms after August 19th. This year, nothing. Unlikely we'll see any additional storms in August and early September is looking dead, too. We could reach the peak of the season (Sept 10) with only 5-6 named storms. I love it! Days off this time of year are a luxury.

I read Klotzbach's season update but I think something is being missed. Warm water - check. Low wind shear - maybe. As for a favorable environment - nope. Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic are dominated by dry, sinking air. It doesn't matter how warm the water is. If the atmosphere isn't favorable then hurricanes struggle to develop. I'm thinking my revised numbers of 18/8/4 may be too high. I'm just hoping for the current pattern to continue and any additional storms to stay out to sea. Perhaps those global models indicating no development are correct. Looking for an ensemble member somewhere to indicate development? Ha!

"A" ensemble member? Who is doing that?

Hmm, I wonder...

I used to be like many of you here. I couldn't wait for the next hurricane season (since the early 1960s), wanting to experience a hurricane. Been there, done that. I've seen the devastation, pain, and hardships that they cause (in my family). Now, I look forward to a quiet season with no impacts. I'm hoping that we can make it through the season with no further hurricane impacts. However, watch out over in the southeast U.S. and NE Caribbean later in September.

Is that including the west coast of Florida? Seems like with the current pattern we are safe.

[wxman57]

Is that including the west coast of Florida? Seems like with the current pattern we are safe.

The Florida peninsula should be safe by Thanksgiving.