2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Jr0d]

This morning's run of the GFS is showing back to back hurricanes 348 hours out, one developing in the GoM approaching S. Texas heading West to wnw the other developing in the Caribbean heading WNW NW apparently zeroing in on Cuba and getting close to S. Florida.b

The good news is it is extremely unlikely the model is right...but it does show activity is likely going to quickly start popping by the end of the 1st week of September.

Edit to add map

[Category5Kaiju]

Season cancelled: cancelled
https://i.ibb.co/L8Q9D3T/gfs-mslp-wind-watl-62.png

They also seem to originate from tropical waves, so I don't think this is reflective of spurious GFS-based convection. Well, maybe this is a sign that operational models are starting to see a shift toward favorable conditions come September. A tad bit delayed, but not denied.

[tolakram]

Except for every time the GFS has never been wrong long range.

I agree though, maybe the first sign the pattern is becoming more favorable. Maybe.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Operations GFS showing something, yes, but the ensembles are showing less development today.

[Javlin]

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMSBILOX136
I'm trying to get one of my 13 outdoor cameras linked as well so you can see images of the beach in Biloxi during storm events
The weather station will come in handy if you want to see wind and BP on the beach in Biloxi in the event we were to be threatened by a storm this season

Thanks Frank got you Bookmarked got to say though the weather this pass weak has been very Nice and almost pre-fall like?

[Blown Away]

GFS has been showing a strong TW in the long range near GOM/FL… Not surprised we are seeing better organization as we move closer to peak season… I give much more weight to the Operational run showing an organized tropical system over Ensembles… JMHO

[Steve]

The 00z CMC attempts to close off the gulf upper low and tries to develop a weak surface center/ low just before making landfall in texas at hour 78, ive been saying this could be a very tricky situation in which its possible we see a quick spin up into a very weak short lived TD, this is something models can have trouble catching. on to

This scenario is somewhat correlated with Phase 4 of the MJO which we are about to go into for a few days.

[Stormlover70]

366 hours out. We are getting desperate

[REDHurricane]

The models right now are like a deer frozen in the headlights standing just over a hill, aware that a car (or even a semi) is going to crash into them but unsure whether it will happen in 2 seconds or 5 seconds... either way, it's coming, and the exact timing of impact doesn't really matter

[Stormcenter]

Per the GFS long range (who we all know the NHC loves)
the light switch has been turned on for next month and even next week with some mischief in the GOM.

[Steve]

Relative to a possible Gulf low in 3-5 days, the mesoscales are running (or have run on some other sites). On the FV3 high resolution model that TT has out to 36 hours, you can see the trough split around the western FL Panhandle. There also appears to be an embedded spin in that piece of energy. Probably low chance, but if it migrates west across the Gulf and closes off at the surface, we could see a landfalling "system" in Texas early next week or late this weekend.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2212&fh=29

NAM 12km has it as well. Based on that setup, it could only back WSW or move up toward the LA/TX border if it gets organized. With that upper high strong over Texas, it's not busting through that.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82212&fh=1

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

The models right now are like a deer frozen in the headlights standing just over a hill, aware that a car (or even a semi) is going to crash into them but unsure whether it will happen in 2 seconds or 5 seconds... either way, it's coming, and the exact timing of impact doesn't really matter

It really is not a guarantee. Things may pick up in September, but it may not be impressive at all.

[skyline385]

The models right now are like a deer frozen in the headlights standing just over a hill, aware that a car (or even a semi) is going to crash into them but unsure whether it will happen in 2 seconds or 5 seconds... either way, it's coming, and the exact timing of impact doesn't really matter

It really is not a guarantee. Things may pick up in September, but it may not be impressive at all.

It is highly more likely that it will pickup in September and will be "impressive" than the other way around.

[LarryWx]

Fwiw and for the record the 6Z Euro AIFS is the 13th run in a row (back to the 6Z 8/19 run) with a TCG in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands ~Sept 2nd.

[WeatherBoy2000]

The models right now are like a deer frozen in the headlights standing just over a hill, aware that a car (or even a semi) is going to crash into them but unsure whether it will happen in 2 seconds or 5 seconds... either way, it's coming, and the exact timing of impact doesn't really matter

It really is not a guarantee. Things may pick up in September, but it may not be impressive at all.

It is highly more likely that it will pickup in September and will be "impressive" than the other way around.

September has been a reliably active month since 2017, 2022 was somewhat "salvaged" by having an active September. This is not to say that this year won't break the trend, but given the current set up that's not particularly likely.

[Teban54]

Operations GFS showing something, yes, but the ensembles are showing less development today.

I could be eating crow in an hour once the 12z runs come out, but there are genuine reasons to think both the ensembles and the operationals may be latching onto something. Specifically, the idea of a low-latitude wave or TC just east of the Lesser Antilles crossing into East Caribbean, towards somewhere between Cuba and the Bahamas.

While GEFS has been delaying signals in the far eastern Atlantic (typically recurves) in the 10-15 days range for the past few days instead of moving them into the 7-10 days range, the idea of the aforementioned track seems relatively constant across the last 2-4 runs, whereas IIRC it was less prominent during earlier runs. More importantly, the timing of such a system seems to generally coincide with 0z CMC's Central Atlantic TC at 240 hours, 6z GFS's Caribbean system, and EC-AIFS's very persistent signal of a TC near Puerto Rico. The EPS also seems to show some support, albeit with greater divergence in tracks and a weaker signal.

Edit: It would also align with the CCKW moving into the Atlantic in the same time frame.

[TomballEd]

In things happening before 10 days, while nothing suggests a big ticket item, maybe not even a NS (1010 mb +/-), 6Z Euro 144 seems to be showing weak support for the GOMEX system the GFS and ensembles sort of like.

GFS ensembles aren't showing that strong of a signal, but about a week away, it is worth watching. I also wonder if lower ensemble resolution may result in the GEFS missing some storms the op shows. I believe Euro and its ensembles run at the same resolution, so I'd expect the EPS to better support the Euro than the GEFS do the GFS.

The interaction of a weak wave and a decaying trough off Florida seems to be the trigger. When the MDR doesn't produce, looking at 'home brew' sometimes yields result. As said above, a slight shift in UL winds drops shear from near 30 knots to about 15 knots in the last day before landfall, and a cohesive system can strengthen quickly approaching land if conditions are favorable. But verbatim, shear and dry air would prevent anything big.

New ICON seems to be showing an inverted trough coming W, so if I was the NHC fruit guy, I'd go a 0/20% lemon now, and adjust up or down later.

[ColdFusion]

Hm, so what do we need, approximately 2 new Atlantic storms to form every week in September and October to meet the dire preseason predictions?

[Stratton23]

I think the gulf low should get a lemon soon, the CMC wraps up s circulation right near landfall near corpus, GFS nothing this run, but the ICON has an inverted trough axis, definitely worth at least giving a 0/20 by the NHC

[MGC]

Hm, so what do we need, approximately 2 new Atlantic storms to form every week in September and October to meet the dire preseason predictions?

It is possible. I think in 1978 there were 7 or 8 tropical cyclones to develop in September.......MGC