2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Nimbus]

12z mesoscale models are showing some kind of organization in the Gulf over the next 3 - 5 days. Unsure whether it'll actually amount to anything, but interesting to keep in mind.

https://i.imgur.com/NFBmDDj.gif

So that was forecast to drop south through Alabama and spin up in the gulf south of Pensacola?
There are some thunderstorms in that coastal area tonight but outflow boundaries galore further south off Ft Myers.
Tomorrow will confirm but its pretty dry.

[LarryWx]

If I’m being honest, the only model I have much trust in right now is the AI-EURO. Mainly because it’s gotten every storm this season (was a bit slow with Debby but caught on) and caught on 10-14 days out. There’s not been a strong long-range signal yet this season and it seems the rest of the models are having difficulty as well this season. Maybe the recent 12z EURO is a sign it’s beginning to detect what the AI EURO has been constantly showing, but at this point I don’t have much faith cause for all I know the 00z run is likely going to be weaker again.

Speaking of the AI-Euro, the 12Z is the 14th run in a row with TCG near the Leewards ~9/2. It then recurves near 70W fwiw.
Edit: This appears to be related to energy/moisture currently over Chad and moving into Nigeria/Niger. This then moves off Africa ~8/26.

[Stratton23]

All eyes are on the gulf next week, the 18z GFS is back showing some development of the wave again next week, Im thinking a lemon gets issued at the overnight 2 am update for the tropical wave near the bahamas

[floridasun]

people think season is cancel but not case we seen before that wont see system week or so in already and sep we see flood gate open maybe last week aug too if dont see system that good we already have few hurr cause issues in islands Caribbean and bermuda and texas

[tolakram]

If I’m being honest, the only model I have much trust in right now is the AI-EURO. Mainly because it’s gotten every storm this season (was a bit slow with Debby but caught on) and caught on 10-14 days out. There’s not been a strong long-range signal yet this season and it seems the rest of the models are having difficulty as well this season. Maybe the recent 12z EURO is a sign it’s beginning to detect what the AI EURO has been constantly showing, but at this point I don’t have much faith cause for all I know the 00z run is likely going to be weaker again.

I hope AI can help with things like model forecasting, but this is not a good metric unless we also know how many false positives it had. Do we know? Using just the metric above the GFS used to be the most awesome model, never missing a storm.

[Stratton23]

GFS 18z back to showing development next week in the gulf, gotta watch this wave carefully, while not overly perfect, the environment in the gulf next week does look conducive for something to try to form

[Ubuntwo]

Four waves of interest on the 18z GFS, as with the past few runs.

Edit: The later two waves concurrently in the Caribbean:

[Blown Away]

Four waves of interest on the 18z GFS, as with the past few runs.

Edit: The later two waves concurrently in the Caribbean:
https://i.imgur.com/yI6rhsK.png

GFS keeps showing very strong TW’s in the Caribbean/FL/GOM area in the long range… I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t have a few named systems in this area early September…

[Stratton23]

Thats the most active run of the GEFS (18z) ive seen yet

[LarryWx]

Thats the most active run of the GEFS (18z) ive seen yet

Indeed, I’d say it is about the most active GEFS for early Sep yet though not really that active for late Aug as there were a number of runs more active for then awhile back.

[SFLcane]

GEFS says enough with the bragging you want hurricanes here you go!

[Teban54]

What's most important to me is that development is now within 10 days. Here's hour 240, and I don't think the earlier runs were this active with their 240 hr forecasts.

(Not all of these storms are OTS either, as plenty of strong members were near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas.)

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

GEFS says enough with the bragging you want hurricanes here you go!

https://i.postimg.cc/RZQxhW9R/IMG-9289.gif

Starting to have that easterly September look. GOM increasing safe; not much longer until Florida can take a breath.

[Category5Kaiju]

What's most important to me is that development is now within 10 days. Here's hour 240, and I don't think the earlier runs were this active with their 240 hr forecasts.

(Not all of these storms are OTS either, as plenty of strong members were near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas.)

https://i.postimg.cc/GpdqyrsR/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-atl-41.png

Yeah, there definitely seems to be hints of something trying to get going in the MDR by the month's end/early September. Some ensembles seem to want to turn it into a westward-tracking hurricane. We'll see.

[SconnieCane]

GEFS says enough with the bragging you want hurricanes here you go!

https://i.postimg.cc/RZQxhW9R/IMG-9289.gif

Starting to have that easterly September look. GOM increasing safe; not much longer until Florida can take a breath.

Rita (LF 9/24), Wilma (10/24), Irma (9/10), Michael (10/10), Ian (9/28) would like a word.

[SFLcane]

GEFS says enough with the bragging you want hurricanes here you go!

https://i.postimg.cc/RZQxhW9R/IMG-9289.gif

Starting to have that easterly September look. GOM increasing safe; not much longer until Florida can take a breath.

Huh?.. With all do respect this post makes no sense whatsoever nobody is safe until the season is over. Hurricanes do form in the Caribbean and GOM in Oct /Nov. Michael, Wilma, Ian just to name a few.

Think before posting certainly don’t want anyone reading this and thinking they are in the clear when there’s still 70% of season to go.

[IcyTundra]

GEFS says enough with the bragging you want hurricanes here you go!

https://i.postimg.cc/RZQxhW9R/IMG-9289.gif

Starting to have that easterly September look. GOM increasing safe; not much longer until Florida can take a breath.

Idk about that typically September and October are the months Florida is most at risk. Even the Eastern Gulf has seen its far share of hits in October over the years. Western Gulf is usually safe after September but we still have another 5 weeks to go for that.

[Stratton23]

MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS this has to be 100% a troll post, the gulf is far from being safe from any hurricane or storm threat until november and even then florida isnt out of the woods yet, that 18z GEFS clearly implies this as well

[Category5Kaiju]

GEFS says enough with the bragging you want hurricanes here you go!

https://i.postimg.cc/RZQxhW9R/IMG-9289.gif

Starting to have that easterly September look. GOM increasing safe; not much longer until Florida can take a breath.

Rita (LF 9/24), Wilma (10/24), Irma (9/10), Michael (10/10), Ian (9/28) would like a word.

Don't forget the Great Hurricane of 1926, Hurricane 9 (1945), and Hurricane King (1950)

[LarryWx]

I believe that Oct is the most dangerous month for the Gulf coast of FL. And we still have Sep before that. Believe me when I say I’d love for those months to be quiet. But I’m not betting on it.