2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[WiscoWx02]

Andy’s saying the dry air pattern is similar to 2022. The big question is: why? What did we miss about 2024 that led to this 2022-like dry air pattern?

[xpost] https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1826704821891879165[/xpost]

Ultimately, just because two years both seem dry on August 22 doesn't mean the underlying causes are the same. By that argument, you could have compared every such year to 2013. And I don't think "Andy said so" is sufficient, either -- even more so because the last time he said this about 10 days ago, someone on Storm2K posted a detailed analysis that showed 2024's patterns were the complete opposite of 2022.

I remember someone posted his pre-Dorian tweet where he thought we’d go the rest of August 2019 without a single NA formation. So yeah he doesn’t always nail his assessments, but I found his comparison of the dry air in the eastern MDR in 2022 and 2024 interesting.

And yeah we’re not seeing the same wave-breaking as 2022. As far as we can tell at this point, most issues with 2024’s muted TCG and delayed switch-flip are due to the overactive AEJ/monsoon. But this is another instance of a negative factor that wasn’t picked up during the pre-season indicators timeframe, even though there may have been hints towards the strength of the AEJ in the spring model runs. And the delayed switch in combination with the factors destroying most waves does give off an implication that we may be missing something else. There’s always at least a few curveballs in forecasting a hurricane season; this seems to be a particularly challenging and confusing year.

Also it’s still kind of funny how 2022 has basically become 2013 2.0.

I was going to mention this earlier because of Andy's post. It certainly seems that a 2022 repeat may be in the works in terms of a very hostile Atlantic through peak season. It also very well could join 2023 as the only seasons that the Atlantic was well above normal SST's wise that didn't yield a active/hyperactive hurricane season. I think it is becoming more and more clear at this point that this hurricane season is not going to come close to expectations from even top forecasting agencies and that they will very likely be facing backlash here soon sad as it is. And that just isn't in terms of named storms, I'm talking every metric.

Yes, I recall vividly that dry air intrusions like the ones we are seeing now were what made ACWB such a thorn in the side of the Atlantic in 2022. This year it is happening not because of ACWB, but because of three things...1.) Strong AEJ being too far north ejecting more dust into the tropical Atlantic, 2.) AEJ being too strong, and 3.) a synoptic pattern set up over Europe that further promotes a easterly flow across the Sahara pushing more dust over the tropical Atlantic.

Yes, the ITCZ will move south and the AEJ weakens going forward most likely, but the ridging looks to stay firmly in place across Europe for the foreseeable future. With that said, it's no wonder the models don't show anything developing out there even into early September. They aren't missing genesis, they are accurately depicting a horribly hostile environment even into peak season very similar to 2022.

IMO, the hyperactive hurricane season ship has sailed and the above average ship is leaving the port. Beryl could very well have been a stray and will go down as one of the biggest anomalies in the history of the Atlantic basin not only because of it happening so early, but because of the hurricane season it is looking to precede that may leave many scratching their heads for years to come.
I'll end though with yes, it only takes one. 2022 still had Ian. We already have had Beryl, Debby and Ernesto, so it has already been a high impact season for sure. Just goes to show that because a quiet season is a quiet season doesn't mean it still can't be horrendous. Hopefully we go the rest of the season unscathed but we shall see, only time will tell.

[otowntiger]

For archival purposes, doesn't get much crazier than this in the GOM. Also, 3 days ago the average temperature of the North Atlantic reached 25C for only the second time since 1981. The only other time was last year, which peaked at a record value of 25.4C on August 31.

https://i.imgur.com/lR5nL23.png

We put too much stock on the OHC, is a crappy measure if the atmosphere is not cooperating.
Gilma is on its way to Cat 4 over zero OHC EPAC waters.

https://i.imgur.com/ke7RaUD.jpg

agree 100%! So much emphasis on hot water, but obviously it takes so much more. Right now it appears that all the Atlantic has is hot water, lol! Every day that goes by without the ‘switch flipping’ is one day closer to the end of the season. I’m so amazed at how so many prognostications have clearly missed whatever inhibiting factors persist and look to quiet the season peak.

[ElectricStorm]

Certainly some interesting discussions in here the last few days. I think this is a discussion that would be better if it happened later in the season but considering it's August 22, I think it's a little (way) too early to start talking about this season being a bust or some kind of major underperformance.

If we get past Labor Day and there's still not much going on then I would be willing to start talking about a potential underperforming season compared to preseason forecasts but until then I think we should enjoy the lull before it really picks up again soon.

[Category5Kaiju]

Bold prediction: in two weeks, we’re going to be commenting on how impressively the Atlantic is performing, with many strongly wishing for the August quiet.

[aspen]

Ultimately, just because two years both seem dry on August 22 doesn't mean the underlying causes are the same. By that argument, you could have compared every such year to 2013. And I don't think "Andy said so" is sufficient, either -- even more so because the last time he said this about 10 days ago, someone on Storm2K posted a detailed analysis that showed 2024's patterns were the complete opposite of 2022.

I remember someone posted his pre-Dorian tweet where he thought we’d go the rest of August 2019 without a single NA formation. So yeah he doesn’t always nail his assessments, but I found his comparison of the dry air in the eastern MDR in 2022 and 2024 interesting.

And yeah we’re not seeing the same wave-breaking as 2022. As far as we can tell at this point, most issues with 2024’s muted TCG and delayed switch-flip are due to the overactive AEJ/monsoon. But this is another instance of a negative factor that wasn’t picked up during the pre-season indicators timeframe, even though there may have been hints towards the strength of the AEJ in the spring model runs. And the delayed switch in combination with the factors destroying most waves does give off an implication that we may be missing something else. There’s always at least a few curveballs in forecasting a hurricane season; this seems to be a particularly challenging and confusing year.

Also it’s still kind of funny how 2022 has basically become 2013 2.0.

I was going to mention this earlier because of Andy's post. It certainly seems that a 2022 repeat may be in the works in terms of a very hostile Atlantic through peak season. It also very well could join 2023 as the only seasons that the Atlantic was well above normal SST's wise that didn't yield a active/hyperactive hurricane season. I think it is becoming more and more clear at this point that this hurricane season is not going to come close to expectations from even top forecasting agencies and that they will very likely be facing backlash here soon sad as it is. And that just isn't in terms of named storms, I'm talking every metric.

Yes, I recall vividly that dry air intrusions like the ones we are seeing now were what made ACWB such a thorn in the side of the Atlantic in 2022. This year it is happening not because of ACWB, but because of three things...1.) Strong AEJ being too far north ejecting more dust into the tropical Atlantic, 2.) AEJ being too strong, and 3.) a synoptic pattern set up over Europe that further promotes a easterly flow across the Sahara pushing more dust over the tropical Atlantic.

Yes, the ITCZ will move south and the AEJ weakens going forward most likely, but the ridging looks to stay firmly in place across Europe for the foreseeable future. With that said, it's no wonder the models don't show anything developing out there even into early September. They aren't missing genesis, they are accurately depicting a horribly hostile environment even into peak season very similar to 2022.

IMO, the hyperactive hurricane season ship has sailed and the above average ship is leaving the port. Beryl could very well have been a stray and will go down as one of the biggest anomalies in the history of the Atlantic basin not only because of it happening so early, but because of the hurricane season it is looking to precede that may leave many scratching their heads for years to come.
I'll end though with yes, it only takes one. 2022 still had Ian. We already have had Beryl, Debby and Ernesto, so it has already been a high impact season for sure. Just goes to show that because a quiet season is a quiet season doesn't mean it still can't be horrendous. Hopefully we go the rest of the season unscathed but we shall see, only time will tell.

If we’re heading to a 2022 repeat and Beryl was just an anomaly, the question remains why late June/early July was so favorable to allow for a 35 ACE Cat5 while the peak season is handicapped by the active AEJ. Did these issues simply take longer to take effect, and Beryl was a sign of how the season would’ve been without them? Beryl would honestly be such an anomaly that it’s hard to believe a season with a July Cat 5 would end up underperforming that much.

[toad strangler]

Ultimately, just because two years both seem dry on August 22 doesn't mean the underlying causes are the same. By that argument, you could have compared every such year to 2013. And I don't think "Andy said so" is sufficient, either -- even more so because the last time he said this about 10 days ago, someone on Storm2K posted a detailed analysis that showed 2024's patterns were the complete opposite of 2022.

I remember someone posted his pre-Dorian tweet where he thought we’d go the rest of August 2019 without a single NA formation. So yeah he doesn’t always nail his assessments, but I found his comparison of the dry air in the eastern MDR in 2022 and 2024 interesting.

And yeah we’re not seeing the same wave-breaking as 2022. As far as we can tell at this point, most issues with 2024’s muted TCG and delayed switch-flip are due to the overactive AEJ/monsoon. But this is another instance of a negative factor that wasn’t picked up during the pre-season indicators timeframe, even though there may have been hints towards the strength of the AEJ in the spring model runs. And the delayed switch in combination with the factors destroying most waves does give off an implication that we may be missing something else. There’s always at least a few curveballs in forecasting a hurricane season; this seems to be a particularly challenging and confusing year.

Also it’s still kind of funny how 2022 has basically become 2013 2.0.

I was going to mention this earlier because of Andy's post. It certainly seems that a 2022 repeat may be in the works in terms of a very hostile Atlantic through peak season. It also very well could join 2023 as the only seasons that the Atlantic was well above normal SST's wise that didn't yield a active/hyperactive hurricane season. I think it is becoming more and more clear at this point that this hurricane season is not going to come close to expectations from even top forecasting agencies and that they will very likely be facing backlash here soon sad as it is. And that just isn't in terms of named storms, I'm talking every metric.

Yes, I recall vividly that dry air intrusions like the ones we are seeing now were what made ACWB such a thorn in the side of the Atlantic in 2022. This year it is happening not because of ACWB, but because of three things...1.) Strong AEJ being too far north ejecting more dust into the tropical Atlantic, 2.) AEJ being too strong, and 3.) a synoptic pattern set up over Europe that further promotes a easterly flow across the Sahara pushing more dust over the tropical Atlantic.

Yes, the ITCZ will move south and the AEJ weakens going forward most likely, but the ridging looks to stay firmly in place across Europe for the foreseeable future. With that said, it's no wonder the models don't show anything developing out there even into early September. They aren't missing genesis, they are accurately depicting a horribly hostile environment even into peak season very similar to 2022.

IMO, the hyperactive hurricane season ship has sailed and the above average ship is leaving the port. Beryl could very well have been a stray and will go down as one of the biggest anomalies in the history of the Atlantic basin not only because of it happening so early, but because of the hurricane season it is looking to precede that may leave many scratching their heads for years to come.
I'll end though with yes, it only takes one. 2022 still had Ian. We already have had Beryl, Debby and Ernesto, so it has already been a high impact season for sure. Just goes to show that because a quiet season is a quiet season doesn't mean it still can't be horrendous. Hopefully we go the rest of the season unscathed but we shall see, only time will tell.

The bell rang just two days ago. Relax.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Ultimately, just because two years both seem dry on August 22 doesn't mean the underlying causes are the same. By that argument, you could have compared every such year to 2013. And I don't think "Andy said so" is sufficient, either -- even more so because the last time he said this about 10 days ago, someone on Storm2K posted a detailed analysis that showed 2024's patterns were the complete opposite of 2022.

I remember someone posted his pre-Dorian tweet where he thought we’d go the rest of August 2019 without a single NA formation. So yeah he doesn’t always nail his assessments, but I found his comparison of the dry air in the eastern MDR in 2022 and 2024 interesting.

And yeah we’re not seeing the same wave-breaking as 2022. As far as we can tell at this point, most issues with 2024’s muted TCG and delayed switch-flip are due to the overactive AEJ/monsoon. But this is another instance of a negative factor that wasn’t picked up during the pre-season indicators timeframe, even though there may have been hints towards the strength of the AEJ in the spring model runs. And the delayed switch in combination with the factors destroying most waves does give off an implication that we may be missing something else. There’s always at least a few curveballs in forecasting a hurricane season; this seems to be a particularly challenging and confusing year.

Also it’s still kind of funny how 2022 has basically become 2013 2.0.

I was going to mention this earlier because of Andy's post. It certainly seems that a 2022 repeat may be in the works in terms of a very hostile Atlantic through peak season. It also very well could join 2023 as the only seasons that the Atlantic was well above normal SST's wise that didn't yield a active/hyperactive hurricane season. I think it is becoming more and more clear at this point that this hurricane season is not going to come close to expectations from even top forecasting agencies and that they will very likely be facing backlash here soon sad as it is. And that just isn't in terms of named storms, I'm talking every metric.

Yes, I recall vividly that dry air intrusions like the ones we are seeing now were what made ACWB such a thorn in the side of the Atlantic in 2022. This year it is happening not because of ACWB, but because of three things...1.) Strong AEJ being too far north ejecting more dust into the tropical Atlantic, 2.) AEJ being too strong, and 3.) a synoptic pattern set up over Europe that further promotes a easterly flow across the Sahara pushing more dust over the tropical Atlantic.

Yes, the ITCZ will move south and the AEJ weakens going forward most likely, but the ridging looks to stay firmly in place across Europe for the foreseeable future. With that said, it's no wonder the models don't show anything developing out there even into early September. They aren't missing genesis, they are accurately depicting a horribly hostile environment even into peak season very similar to 2022.

IMO, the hyperactive hurricane season ship has sailed and the above average ship is leaving the port. Beryl could very well have been a stray and will go down as one of the biggest anomalies in the history of the Atlantic basin not only because of it happening so early, but because of the hurricane season it is looking to precede that may leave many scratching their heads for years to come.
I'll end though with yes, it only takes one. 2022 still had Ian. We already have had Beryl, Debby and Ernesto, so it has already been a high impact season for sure. Just goes to show that because a quiet season is a quiet season doesn't mean it still can't be horrendous. Hopefully we go the rest of the season unscathed but we shall see, only time will tell.

I'm pretty sure 2022 didn't have 55 ace at this point, 2 hurricanes in August, and a cat 5 in July. The Atlantic only needs an additional 105 ace to achieve the hyperactivity threshold. If we were to see a 2022 like peak season then that would still make 2024 an above average season at around 150 ace, 16 storms, 11 hurricanes, and 3 majors. Yeah it would still largely be a forecasting bust, but definitely not a below average season.

[dexterlabio]

I don't know, I'm much more familiar with the Pacific but for the Atlantic this year it is way TOO early to throw in the towel for a HYPERACTIVE year. Just take 2017 as example. I would have used 2020 as an example too but that year had been pumping storm after storm even before August 21st, although the real howlers of that year were produced in September through November.

[Category5Kaiju]

I remember someone posted his pre-Dorian tweet where he thought we’d go the rest of August 2019 without a single NA formation. So yeah he doesn’t always nail his assessments, but I found his comparison of the dry air in the eastern MDR in 2022 and 2024 interesting.

And yeah we’re not seeing the same wave-breaking as 2022. As far as we can tell at this point, most issues with 2024’s muted TCG and delayed switch-flip are due to the overactive AEJ/monsoon. But this is another instance of a negative factor that wasn’t picked up during the pre-season indicators timeframe, even though there may have been hints towards the strength of the AEJ in the spring model runs. And the delayed switch in combination with the factors destroying most waves does give off an implication that we may be missing something else. There’s always at least a few curveballs in forecasting a hurricane season; this seems to be a particularly challenging and confusing year.

Also it’s still kind of funny how 2022 has basically become 2013 2.0.

I was going to mention this earlier because of Andy's post. It certainly seems that a 2022 repeat may be in the works in terms of a very hostile Atlantic through peak season. It also very well could join 2023 as the only seasons that the Atlantic was well above normal SST's wise that didn't yield a active/hyperactive hurricane season. I think it is becoming more and more clear at this point that this hurricane season is not going to come close to expectations from even top forecasting agencies and that they will very likely be facing backlash here soon sad as it is. And that just isn't in terms of named storms, I'm talking every metric.

Yes, I recall vividly that dry air intrusions like the ones we are seeing now were what made ACWB such a thorn in the side of the Atlantic in 2022. This year it is happening not because of ACWB, but because of three things...1.) Strong AEJ being too far north ejecting more dust into the tropical Atlantic, 2.) AEJ being too strong, and 3.) a synoptic pattern set up over Europe that further promotes a easterly flow across the Sahara pushing more dust over the tropical Atlantic.

Yes, the ITCZ will move south and the AEJ weakens going forward most likely, but the ridging looks to stay firmly in place across Europe for the foreseeable future. With that said, it's no wonder the models don't show anything developing out there even into early September. They aren't missing genesis, they are accurately depicting a horribly hostile environment even into peak season very similar to 2022.

IMO, the hyperactive hurricane season ship has sailed and the above average ship is leaving the port. Beryl could very well have been a stray and will go down as one of the biggest anomalies in the history of the Atlantic basin not only because of it happening so early, but because of the hurricane season it is looking to precede that may leave many scratching their heads for years to come.
I'll end though with yes, it only takes one. 2022 still had Ian. We already have had Beryl, Debby and Ernesto, so it has already been a high impact season for sure. Just goes to show that because a quiet season is a quiet season doesn't mean it still can't be horrendous. Hopefully we go the rest of the season unscathed but we shall see, only time will tell.

If we’re heading to a 2022 repeat and Beryl was just an anomaly, the question remains why late June/early July was so favorable to allow for a 35 ACE Cat5 while the peak season is handicapped by the active AEJ. Did these issues simply take longer to take effect, and Beryl was a sign of how the season would’ve been without them? Beryl would honestly be such an anomaly that it’s hard to believe a season with a July Cat 5 would end up underperforming that much.

I'm going to piggyback off of your point here aspen; getting a Category 5 in early July (and dividing this feat into ones like rapidly intensifying Category 4 hurricane in June) is unprecedented in hurricane history for a reason. Warm waters and low wind shear alone aren't enough to allow this to happen; there are a myriad of other factors that need to come into the right place for this to happen (something that, as far as we know, not even years like 1933, 2004, 2005, 2010, and 2017 accomplished). Surely if this were that easy then more seasons would've featured Beryl-like storms.

Sure, Beryl was a very impressive storm, but did it really happen for absolutely no reason? I personally don't think so (as in, I think Beryl was a symptom of rather favorable background conditions that would allow this season to end up being very active in the end), but others may disagree if they want.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Bold prediction: in two weeks, we’re going to be commenting on how impressively the Atlantic is performing, with many strongly wishing for the August quiet.

I’ll take that bet. September will have some action, obviously, but I am skeptical that it will be terribly more than average.

[WiscoWx02]

Bold prediction: in two weeks, we’re going to be commenting on how impressively the Atlantic is performing, with many strongly wishing for the August quiet.

I’ll take that bet. September will have some action, obviously, but I am skeptical that it will be terribly more than average.

I'm sure we will see a storm or two as well sure, but agreed, I wouldn't expect anything higher than slightly below average activity by end of the month

[Ubuntwo]

Bold prediction: in two weeks, we’re going to be commenting on how impressively the Atlantic is performing, with many strongly wishing for the August quiet.

I’ll take that bet. September will have some action, obviously, but I am skeptical that it will be terribly more than average.

I'm sure we will see a storm or two as well sure, but agreed, I wouldn't expect anything higher than slightly below average activity by end of the month

Are you seriously suggesting we only see one or two storms in September? Come on

[Stratton23]

Category5Kaiju im going with you, i think september the basin is going to go off, i have september being above average to well above average,

[SFLcane]

I get it it’s accuweather but can’t say I disagree with this article. We shall see!

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/supercharged-september-atlantic-hurricane-season-to-intensify-dramatically/1683206

[Category5Kaiju]

Bold prediction: in two weeks, we’re going to be commenting on how impressively the Atlantic is performing, with many strongly wishing for the August quiet.

I’ll take that bet. September will have some action, obviously, but I am skeptical that it will be terribly more than average.

I'm sure we will see a storm or two as well sure, but agreed, I wouldn't expect anything higher than slightly below average activity by end of the month

Wisco, I'm not trying to be rude or mean here, but I personally think you have a very unrealistically bearish expectation for this season. For that to happen (as in, two or less storms in September), we really need to be in the 1910s or 1920s, when the Atlantic background state was quite unfavorable for major levels of activity. And we would have to basically disregard the extremely warm deep tropical waters, -ENSO state, and virtually every factor in place now that, historically speaking, point toward favoring Atlantic activity. It's not even September yet (we still have 9 days left to go, which is quite a bit of time in the world of tropical weather).

[WiscoWx02]

I’ll take that bet. September will have some action, obviously, but I am skeptical that it will be terribly more than average.

I'm sure we will see a storm or two as well sure, but agreed, I wouldn't expect anything higher than slightly below average activity by end of the month

Are you seriously suggesting we only see one or two storms in September? Come on

3-4 is my guess if you want an actual quantity, I was just throwing an offhand idea out there

[IsabelaWeather]

I’ll take that bet. September will have some action, obviously, but I am skeptical that it will be terribly more than average.

I'm sure we will see a storm or two as well sure, but agreed, I wouldn't expect anything higher than slightly below average activity by end of the month

Wisco, I'm not trying to be rude or mean here, but I personally think you have a very unrealistically bearish expectation for this season. For that to happen (as in, two or less storms in September), we really need to be in the 1910s or 1920s, when the Atlantic background state was quite unfavorable for major levels of activity. And we would have to basically disregard the extremely warm deep tropical waters, -ENSO state, and virtually every factor in place now that, historically speaking, point toward favoring Atlantic activity. It's not even September yet (we still have 9 days left to go, which is quite a bit of time in the world of tropical weather).

I've noticed this is a trait from that poster, bearish to the extreme. I have kept mental notes, posts bearish and when it busts it's like what has been said vanishes.

Maybe they are right about this season, but I seriously doubt it. Time will tell. I think 8 to 10 storms will form in september.

[WiscoWx02]

I'm sure we will see a storm or two as well sure, but agreed, I wouldn't expect anything higher than slightly below average activity by end of the month

Wisco, I'm not trying to be rude or mean here, but I personally think you have a very unrealistically bearish expectation for this season. For that to happen (as in, two or less storms in September), we really need to be in the 1910s or 1920s, when the Atlantic background state was quite unfavorable for major levels of activity. And we would have to basically disregard the extremely warm deep tropical waters, -ENSO state, and virtually every factor in place now that, historically speaking, point toward favoring Atlantic activity. It's not even September yet (we still have 9 days left to go, which is quite a bit of time in the world of tropical weather).

I've noticed this is a trait from that poster, bearish to the extreme. I have kept mental notes, posts bearish and when it busts it's like what has been said vanishes.

Maybe they are right about this season, but I seriously doubt it. Time will tell. I think 8 to 10 storms will form in september.

I am one of the bearish forecasts you will probably ever meet, and that goes for snowfall totals and severe weather back here at home. There is always a fly in the ointment. Sometimes I am horribly wrong yeah (2021 I said a lot of stuff that failed miserably but then other times I got it right but nothing I would dare get cocky over).

[Beef Stew]

I'll start to believe this season may bust or significantly underperform if by September 10th we haven't seen any significant storms and the tropics still look barren. Until then, to me it resembles yet another season that's headed towards a backloaded finish following relatively quiet August- which has seemed to happen more often than not over the past decade anyhow. At this time i just don't think there's some unaccounted-for or missed x-factor (like we saw in 2013, and somewhat 2022 to an extent) that's playing out in the background to make things unfavorable- and unless things stay quiet until my aforementioned "panic-point", I'm chalking this up to standard intraseasonal variation. I just can't bet against record MDR temps, positive AMO configuration, cool neutral/La Niña, and a July category 5 as not being significant indicators of the lid coming off in an explosive way.

I think it also seems more quiet than it actually is due to the extremely high expectations and forecasts everyone had for the season, especially after Beryl- 5/3/1 is nothing to slouch at for August 22nd. I think many were expecting complete 2020-esq storm spamming from July onward with many of those storms turning into powerful hurricanes- something that just isn't likely even when conditions are as conventionally conductive as they are this year. Even 2020 only stood at 2/0 in terms of H/MH at this point, and while yes, that season featured the most anomalous November on record, there's still a point to be made that we're currently outpacing a year that finished at an absurd 14/7* H/MH count (* I personally think that Sally was a category 3 and this was a record breaking 8 MH's, but I digress). Ultimately, I think this season still has a lot of tricks up its sleeve- and while the NS count may end up falling below most forecasts, I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a top-10 ACE year, 6-7 total majors, multiple category 5's, and a year that stands in it's own league in some aspect (if Beryl wasn't enough for this already) similar to 1933, 2005, 2017, 2020, etc.

[Hammy]

I think it also seems more quiet than it actually is due to the extremely high expectations and forecasts everyone had for the season, especially after Beryl- 5/3/1 is nothing to slouch at for August 22nd.

Another underrated factor is, we're used to the models spamming phantom storms like crazy as we approach the peak, and they haven't been doing that the last three years (if anything they've been thinking the season's over right up until something starts to form) so when that doesn't happen, it adds another 2+ weeks to the perceived quiet