Atlantic Nina = Can anyone give more info on this?

[Beer Belly]

Is this what is hindering development of systems coming off Africa?

Looking for more info because I know that there are people on here with far more knowledge than me.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/e ... -attention

[toad strangler]

CREDIT Michael Lowry Weather ....


The wind shear conundrum
As we mentioned in Tuesday’s newsletter, wind shear has been high, especially in the eastern part of the Atlantic Main Development Region or MDR the past few weeks.

The higher-than-average wind shear is from winds tearing at would-be storms from the east, rather than from the west which is most typical during the hurricane season. The typical west-to-east upper-wind configuration that’s normally one of the biggest factors working against tropical development flipped so much in the other direction, it’s actually remained a deterrent. This is pretty unusual for the Atlantic.

One of the contributors to this unusual east-to-west wind shear in the eastern Atlantic has been a northward displacement of southwesterly (winds from the southwest) surface winds over parts of northern Africa known as the West African Monsoon or WAM. Typically, the northward displacement of the WAM would favor more robust disturbances, but it’s been so far north that it’s actually enhancing the easterly shear due to stronger winds from the west at the surface.

One of the causes of the WAM’s northward displacement is the so-called Atlantic Niña, a cooling of the waters around the equator in the eastern Atlantic just south of Africa.
Though we haven’t technically met the criteria for an Atlantic Niña, the quick transition to cooler than average waters increases the temperature difference between the warm Sahara and cooler, wetter conditions to the south. This in part drives the West African Monsoon farther north.

[weeniepatrol]

More like Atlantic warm-neutral

[Hammy]

More like Atlantic warm-neutral

https://i.imgur.com/1px0Dap.png

Atlantic Nino/Nina region isn't visible in the map coverage.

[weeniepatrol]

More like Atlantic warm-neutral

https://i.imgur.com/1px0Dap.png

Atlantic Nino/Nina region isn't visible in the map coverage.

Not even CLOSE to an Atlantic Nina



CRW was me being generous. OISST even warmer

[al78]

Some of these SST datasets can differ significantly from each other. I've noticed this when looking at the Atlantic SST anomalies, with one dataset implying the MDR only modestly warmer than average and another looking like jaccuzi-water.

Compare the NOAA SST anomaly map here:
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

with the CDAS one here:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... obal_1.png

Note the difference in the strength of the negative anomalies in Nino 3.4 region between the two datasets.

[Hammy]

More like Atlantic warm-neutral

https://i.imgur.com/1px0Dap.png

Atlantic Nino/Nina region isn't visible in the map coverage.

Not even CLOSE to an Atlantic Nina

https://i.imgur.com/4kKoqIn.png

CRW was me being generous. OISST even warmer

https://i.imgur.com/HNZdb3i.png

It's sub-equatorial

[weeniepatrol]

Some of these SST datasets can differ significantly from each other. I've noticed this when looking at the Atlantic SST anomalies, with one dataset implying the MDR only modestly warmer than average and another looking like jaccuzi-water.

Compare the NOAA SST anomaly map here:
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

with the CDAS one here:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... obal_1.png

Note the difference in the strength of the negative anomalies in Nino 3.4 region between the two datasets.

CDAS has issues for sure. Well known cool bias.

Atlantic Nino/Nina region isn't visible in the map coverage.

Not even CLOSE to an Atlantic Nina

https://i.imgur.com/4kKoqIn.png

CRW was me being generous. OISST even warmer

https://i.imgur.com/HNZdb3i.png

It's sub-equatorial

Alright, I mean no offense but Atlantic Nina/Nino are equatorial events, not sub equatorial, so that is irrelevant.



And the equator is NOT cold. Maybe it does actually cool from this point but as it stands now, not an Atlantic Nina.

[NotSparta]

Some of these SST datasets can differ significantly from each other. I've noticed this when looking at the Atlantic SST anomalies, with one dataset implying the MDR only modestly warmer than average and another looking like jaccuzi-water.

Compare the NOAA SST anomaly map here:
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

with the CDAS one here:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... obal_1.png

Note the difference in the strength of the negative anomalies in Nino 3.4 region between the two datasets.

CDAS being anything other than below average in the MDR would be a sign of the end times

[Hammy]

Some of these SST datasets can differ significantly from each other. I've noticed this when looking at the Atlantic SST anomalies, with one dataset implying the MDR only modestly warmer than average and another looking like jaccuzi-water.

Compare the NOAA SST anomaly map here:
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

with the CDAS one here:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... obal_1.png

Note the difference in the strength of the negative anomalies in Nino 3.4 region between the two datasets.

CDAS has issues for sure. Well known cool bias.

Not even CLOSE to an Atlantic Nina

https://i.imgur.com/4kKoqIn.png

CRW was me being generous. OISST even warmer

https://i.imgur.com/HNZdb3i.png

It's sub-equatorial

https://i.imgur.com/Vd4VhTi.png

Alright, I mean no offense but Atlantic Nina/Nino are equatorial events, not sub equatorial, so that is irrelevant.

https://i.ibb.co/jbQGXLt/Capture-4.jpg

And the equator is NOT cold. Maybe it does actually cool from this point but as it stands now, not an Atlantic Nina.

No offense taken, I know fairly little about this so I went mostly off where the cool area was on the sample map