Tropical wave in Bahamas

[boca]

I been following this tropical wave since around Puerto Rico area and noticed it now has quite up bit more moisture to it. It is right in our backyard so I’m watching it closely.

[toad strangler]

I been following this tropical wave since around Puerto Rico area and noticed it now has quite up bit more moisture to it. It is right in our backyard so I’m watching it closely.

Start a thread with no pic? Come on man

[Stratton23]

worth watching for sure, if the wave can sustain its convection getting into the gulf, it may try to do something

[Steve]

The wave intersecting with the trough split (note the spin in NE Gulf) is liable to be what sets off Genesis I was talking about last weekend. Looks like we are in Phase 3 of MJO but barely. Not sure if MJO will go into 4 or back to the circle so nothing particularly serious is coming out of the setup. But we could see some rain along the north gulf the next few days. It’s beautiful in Pensacola today behind the trough fwiw.

[Teban54]

So much for the entire Atlantic being dry

[Stratton23]

Need this to become at least a weak tropical low, a tropical wave will not bring much rainfall at all, too weak and sheared, need a slightly more organized system from this

[Nimbus]

Need this to become at least a weak tropical low, a tropical wave will not bring much rainfall at all, too weak and sheared, need a slightly more organized system from this

This wave has the moisture it needs and now that the trough has split maybe it will combine with the mid level front tail remnant dropping south of Pensacola. Tampa buoy currently reporting high surface pressure near 1018 mb so it would need some thunderstorm activity for the mid level energy to reflect at the surface.

[tropicwatch]

Pressures are pretty high there just like in the Gulf of Mexico.

[Stratton23]

Looks like the euro 12z wants to just stall the wave over SE texas for 4-5 days, no development yet, still worth watching

[ChrisH-UK]

It has in flow from the south which is been sucked in underneath the convection. On the likes of mesoscale models there is some rotation on the 500mb vorticity the bigger global models have it moving north along the east coast not making much of it. Interestingly the GFS shows a possibility of it moving into the gulf and heading to south Texas. I love these small pop up's.

[boca]

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

Looks like some rotation just to the southwest of Andros Island.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1827359742978650350

[REDHurricane]

Very interesting signal coming from this disturbance on the 12z GFS operational less than 5 days out...

[Steve]

12z ICON has it stall just off the Texas coast and spin up. Looks like @998mb valid next Sunday 00Z.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 412&fh=180

What happens is that a trough goes by pretty far north so that the overall pattern flattens out at 500mb.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 412&fh=180

[Steve]

It’s the only model I’ve seen that aggressive. The caution was that it did extremely well with Beryl in that area and stayed consistent. Mostly the globals have a return to a SE/tropical flow with maybe a little spin but more low level moisture than anything that organized. I haven’t seen the euro yet.

[Steve]

7 day QPF shows rainfall over the NW Gulf. This is through next Saturday 12z.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1724518026

Compare that to ICON.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 412&fh=180

If you look at the vort at 500mb it’s actually both waves that get to Texas. The first spin moves across in a few days with energy from the Bahamas wave what stalls and develops.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2412&fh=60