2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Stratton23]

GEFS has a signal in the Bay of Campache at day 9, not really sure what that is from though

[Ubuntwo]

GEFS has a signal in the Bay of Campache at day 9, not really sure what that is from though

That is from the same wave the operational GFS spins up near Florida. The op has two sequential troughs allowing this wave to lift north. In the absence of these troughs, the wave would continue into the southern Gulf.

[Stratton23]

Ubuntwo are you sure? Looks like the GEFS is showing that coming out of the western caribbean

[Ubuntwo]

Ubuntwo are you sure? Looks like the GEFS is showing that coming out of the western caribbean

Yes. Notice the wave axis on the operational GFS actually starts in the Caribbean & extends into Central America:

[Stratton23]

Ubuntwo ah i see, so the GEFS must be latching on to the southern portion of the wave, doesnt seem like the other models like it though

[wxman57]

I certainly like what I'm seeing in the models today - no significant development. I'm thinking that the next storm may form in the Subtropical Atlantic ENE of Bermuda in 7-10 days. Love it! Maybe I'll take next Thursday AND Friday off before the 3-day Labor Day weekend.

[otowntiger]

I certainly like what I'm seeing in the models today - no significant development. I'm thinking that the next storm may form in the Subtropical Atlantic ENE of Bermuda in 7-10 days. Love it! Maybe I'll take next Thursday AND Friday off before the 3-day Labor Day weekend.

sounds good! Looks like the heart of the season maybe be unusually quiet! All that hot water doesn’t seem to matter.

[Stratton23]

For now, i have a feeling september will be a new ball game, im not taking a breather until september is behind us lol

[Pas_Bon]

At some point, we just have to call a spade a spade. No, the season isn’t “cancelled,” but it’s getting time that we need to really curtail our expectations of a “hyperactive” season, in my non-professional opinion.

We keep hearing, “the switch is going to flip any day now” and now “September will be a rough one.” This, after hearing, “August will be Hell.”

I’ll be honest, while I expect a few storms in September, I’m not seeing anything from the models indicating that we will see anything other than a few storms here and there.

The prognostications for this season were justified, indeed. They haven’t really panned out. We had a Cat 1 in Texas (granted, it reached Cat 5 and damaged Jamaica quite a bit) and a Cat 1 in Florida. Other than that, we’ve had a couple tropical storms and a (mostly) fish that impacted Bermuda. While that is active for whomever gets them, it’s hardly the doom and gloom that has had so many worried for so long.

[Stratton23]

00z GFS again has another wave trying to develop in the gulf next week, thats been showing up on the last 3-4 runs now, interesting

Even the 00z CMC is starting to hint at this as well, albeit its much weaker and stretched out wave

[Stratton23]

GFS stalls a TD/ weak TS (1006 MB) off shore of Eastern Lousiana lol in 10 days

[Teban54]

10 days out of course, but it's almost as if GFS heard all the NS count cancel posts and decided to do something about it. (This is in addition to the Gulf system that intensified to 997 mb at landfall.)

[MarioProtVI]

10 days out of course, but it's almost as if GFS heard all the NS count cancel posts and decided to do something about it. (This is in addition to the Gulf system that intensified to 997 mb at landfall.)

https://i.postimg.cc/NfqNQZyb/gfs-z850-vort-eatl-44.png

This seems like GFS bias kicking in with vorticies so I don’t think it’s real BUT maybe it’s a sign it’s starting to get its act together wrt the monsoon trough breakdown?

[Stratton23]

GEFS showing a decent signal for the western/ southern gulf in 8 days

[IcyTundra]

At some point, we just have to call a spade a spade. No, the season isn’t “cancelled,” but it’s getting time that we need to really curtail our expectations of a “hyperactive” season, in my non-professional opinion.

We keep hearing, “the switch is going to flip any day now” and now “September will be a rough one.” This, after hearing, “August will be Hell.”

I’ll be honest, while I expect a few storms in September, I’m not seeing anything from the models indicating that we will see anything other than a few storms here and there.

The prognostications for this season were justified, indeed. They haven’t really panned out. We had a Cat 1 in Texas (granted, it reached Cat 5 and damaged Jamaica quite a bit) and a Cat 1 in Florida. Other than that, we’ve had a couple tropical storms and a (mostly) fish that impacted Bermuda. While that is active for whomever gets them, it’s hardly the doom and gloom that has had so many worried for so long.

Ernesto was far from a fish storm considering it impacted the Caribbean as well as Bermuda like you mentioned. A hyperactive season is still likely imo as we only need 105 ACE to get there but yes we might not get the 200+ ACE season that the forecasts suggested.

[Hammy]

10 days out of course, but it's almost as if GFS heard all the NS count cancel posts and decided to do something about it. (This is in addition to the Gulf system that intensified to 997 mb at landfall.)

https://i.postimg.cc/NfqNQZyb/gfs-z850-vort-eatl-44.png

This seems like GFS bias kicking in with vorticies so I don’t think it’s real BUT maybe it’s a sign it’s starting to get its act together wrt the monsoon trough breakdown?

If it's history with the CAG is any indication, the southwest vortex (if these are real) often wins out as, unless there's a trough, they tend to end up in the Pacific and go west

[MarioProtVI]

Meant to post here, but 00z EURO is FINALLY starting to pick up the wave that AI-EURO, CMC, CFS and ensembles have been detecting. Uptrended quite a bit - previously was just strung out to hell and back but now is actually a coherent entity.

[jlauderdal]

I certainly like what I'm seeing in the models today - no significant development. I'm thinking that the next storm may form in the Subtropical Atlantic ENE of Bermuda in 7-10 days. Love it! Maybe I'll take next Thursday AND Friday off before the 3-day Labor Day weekend.

Here comes a Labor Day system that rivals 1935

[cycloneye]

The Euro AIF model has been the most consistent model showing and developing something. Here is the 00z run with a difference as it moves much more west.

[Nimbus]

00z GFS again has another wave trying to develop in the gulf next week, thats been showing up on the last 3-4 runs now, interesting

Even the 00z CMC is starting to hint at this as well, albeit its much weaker and stretched out wave

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

Mid level circulations typically take *days* to get down to the surface.
Texas could still get significant rain from a mid level feature if the thunderstorm activity picks up.
If we start seeing the surface pressures at the mid gulf buoy yoyo down below 1008 MB we might get a declared depression. And if a depression did form it could come northeast with the next front.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42001