WPAC: SHANSHAN - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

90W.INVEST

90W INVEST 240820 1800 15.2N 145.3E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

Latest 12Z develops significantly and strong ensemble support from Euro, (looks the EC-AIFS will verify to be right developing this system even before traditional Euro showed it)

[Hayabusa]

Now medium

ABPW10 PGTW 202130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/202130Z-210600ZAUG2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201951ZAUG2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 20AUG24 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (JONGDARI) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 125.5E, APPROXIMATELY 94 NM SOUTHWEST OF OSAN AB,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 202100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.2N
145.3E, APPROXIMATELY 115 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLC AND A
201800Z 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MORE SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH A LOW (10-15KTS) VWS, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND
WARM (29-30C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITH A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1).//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

On my phone trvavelling, JMA issued TC warning at 00z

[Hayabusa]

Jtwc tcfa

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS has much faster strengthening this run.

[Hayabusa]

WDPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 17.0N 142.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 204 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST AND FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY INTO A MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
USING LOW CLOUD TRACING INTO THE OBSCURED LLCC AND LINED UP WITH A
MICROWAVE LLCC FEATURE IN THE 210803Z SSMIS IMAGE SUITE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5 FROM ALL THREE REPORTING AGENCIES - PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM
SST AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 11W WILL TRACK MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR TOWARD JAPAN. THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 60KTS
BY TAU 96. AFTERWARD, INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES, WILL FUEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION
TO 85KTS BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GRADUAL SPREAD TO 239NM BY TAU 120 WITH UEMN ON THE LEFT AND
NVGM ON THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST TO TAU 72, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD GIVEN
THE ANTICIPATED VARIABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

[ElectricStorm]

0z HAFS-A with the most broken run I've seen in a long time, 187kts/889mb, nears Japan at 893mb

HWRF has 95kts at landfall which is more reasonable but still pretty high for a Japan landfall.

Decent chance we see a major before it starts to weaken near landfall IMO.

[shah83]

I was just coming here to say... them dynamic models are absolutely dire.

[aspen]

160 kt/899mb on the 6z HAFS-A.

[kevin]

HAFS-A has a potentially historic (and devastating) 160 kt Kochi, Japan landfall. Would be the most intense Japan landfall since accurate records started (the current record is Vera in 1959, 920 mb & 140 kt). Let's hope it won't be as bad as HAFS shows.

[cycloneye]

12z HAFS.

[Hayabusa]

Legendary run from hfas
[img]
https://i.ibb.co/9HXzXY5/hafsa-mslp-wind-11-W-41.png
[/img]

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR
006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 17.5N 140.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 329 NM NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 05 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM 11W (SHANSHAN) WITH A CONTINUED AND RELATIVELY LARGE CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
(LLCC). THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS AT 05 KTS, WHILE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED VIGOROUSLY
OVER THE ASSESSED CENTER. WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30
C), LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND
DUAL-CHANNEL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE LLC HAS REMAINED OBSCURED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED CDO, HOWEVER, AN EARLIER (221438Z) OCEANSAT-3 IMAGE
HAS CONFIRMED THE SYSTEM'S NORTHWARD TRACK, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
ASYMETRIC WIND FIELD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE PERIPHERY OF A SOUTHWESTWARD
EXTENDING RIDGE FROM THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 49 KTS AT 221309Z
CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 221900Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: LOW
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 11W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A WEAK
STEERING PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AS RIDGING FROM THE EAST
CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD. AS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
(STR) AMPLIFIES WESTWARD, TS 11W WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRACK
INTO TAU 48. LEADING UP TO TAU 36 TO TAU 48, AN ADDITIONAL STR WILL
BUILD IN CLOSE VICINITY TO HONSHU, DRIVING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD
INTO TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, TS 11W WILL CROSS THE STR AXIS AND BEGIN
ITS TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, TOWARD WAKAYAMA, JAPAN BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL JUST BEFORE TAU 120. IN REGARD TO INTENSITY, TS 11W IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS LOW TO MODERATE VWS (15-25 KTS)
WILL REMAIN PREVALENT DURING THE GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK INTO TAU
72, WHILE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME, AN UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF CYCLONIC ROTATION
(TUTT CELL) WILL LIMIT THE SYSTEM'S EXHAUST MECHANISM UNTIL TS 11W
TRACKS NORTH OF THE STR AXIS. AFTER TAU 72, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
LOW VWS, AND CONDUCIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, WITH TS 11W INTENSITIES
OF 105 KTS AT TAU 96 AND JUST BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR WAKAYAMA, JAPAN.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT
THAT TS 11W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM FURTHER EAST
DURING THE INITIAL 72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD AT TAU 72 IS 115 NM, AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASES TO 170 NM
BY TAU 96, NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECASTED NORTHEASTWARD TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS (GEFS) AND ECMWF (EPS) ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE
TRACK PHILOSOPHY, WITH THE LARGE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS INDICATING
THE RECURVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 96. THE JTWC TRACK IS
PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN LOW AGREEMENT, WITH MODELS VARYING ON INTENSITY
GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 72 AND DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK. OVERALL, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE WITH THE
CONSENSUS DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHILE
INCREASING BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120 AS TS 11W APPROACHES MAINLAND
JAPAN.

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Typhoon.

T2410(Shanshan)
Issued at 2024/08/24 00:50 UTC
Analysis at 08/24 00 UTC
Grade TY
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N20°00′ (20.0°)
E141°20′ (141.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 55 km (30 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area E330 km (180 NM)
W220 km (120 NM)

[cycloneye]

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 11W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE BEFORE ULTIMATELY TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVILY
SHEARED BY THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE
WEST. AS THE TUTT DRIFTS WEST, SHEAR WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE
BETWEEN TAU 36-60. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE
WITH LOW SHEAR, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AND INTERACTS WITH THE
TOPOGRAPHY OF JAPAN. JUST BEFORE TAU 96 THE SYSTEM BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS AND EMBEDS INTO AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET AND COMPLETES TRANSITION BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE TRACK WITH A MAXIMUM CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD OF 120NM. THE MODEL SPREAD OPENS BASED ON VARIED
INTERPRETATIONS OF HOW STRONGLY THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE STR
TO THE NORTHEAST, OPENING THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD TO 220NM BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY GUIDANCE SPREADS
SIGNIFICANTLY BY TAU 36 AS SHEAR LESSENS AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MORE FAVORABLE. HAFS-A SHOWS A PEAK OF 125KTS WHILE GFS IS THE
LOWEST AND REPRESENTS A PEAK OF 90KTS. THE SPREAD CAN BE ATTRIBUTED
TO VARIATIONS OF HOW FAVORABLE THE ENVIRONMENT IS AND THE DIFFERENT
TRACK SOLUTIONS, SOME OF WHICH CARRY THE TYPHOON OVER WATER FOR LONGER
THAN OTHERS.

[CrazyC83]

What is the strongest storm to hit Honshu in the satellite era? I know, for an Atlantic comparison, that would be like hitting the southeast coast (GA/SC/NC) in terms of latitude.

[shah83]

Usually, intensity forcasts fail dramatically. The NE turn usually whacks a storms capacity for strong winds even if there wasn't surprise shear.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 22.5N 140.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 142 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM THAT HAS MAINTAINED ITS TYPHOON INTENSITY WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE TOP TEMPERATURES OVER THE COLD DENSE OVERCAST (CDO)
CYCLING UP AND DOWN AND OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR INTRUSION ALONG THE WESTERN
FLANK ARE ALSO EVIDENT ON THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WARMEST PIXELS IN THE
CENTER OF THE CDO, ADJUSTED FOR FORWARD TILT AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM
A DEFINED BEST-TRACK MID-POINT LLC FEATURE IN THE 240904Z SSMIS
37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MAJORITY OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED 6-HR EIR SIGNATURE.
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
WARM ALONG-TRACK SST AND STRONG VENTILATION ALOFT OFFSET BY
MODERATE RELATIVE VWS AND COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION AT THE LOWER
LEVELS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 52 KTS AT 240951Z
CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 241130Z
CIMSS AIDT: 64 KTS AT 241240Z
CIMSS DPRINT: 64 KTS AT 241130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON SHANSHAN WILL CONTINUE ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE STEERING STR BUILDS. AFTER TAU 48, IT
WILL TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS IT CRESTS THE STR AXIS AND AFTER TAU
72, WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR,
MAKE LANDFALL JUST SOUTHWEST OF KYOTO, TRACK ACROSS HONSHU, THEN
EXIT INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ) AROUND TAU 96. BY TAU 120, IT WILL
REACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE RUSSIAN ISLAND OF SAKHALIN. THE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105KTS BY TAU 72 AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO INCREASE. AFTER TAU 72, LAND INTERACTION AND COOL SST
IN THE SOJ WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 45KTS BY TAU 120.
CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 96, TY 11W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BECOME A STRONG
GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 158NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO
THE INTENSITY FORECAST). AFTERWARD, THE MODEL ENVELOPE SPREADS OUT
UNEVENLY TO 481NM BY TAU 120. THIS WIDE RANGE PLUS THE VARIABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH LAND INTERACTION AND ETT LEND LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.