2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[aspen]

Starting to get a decent consensus on potentially something in the western half of the MDR in the first few days of September. If this storm actually forms, it’ll probably be the start of the switch flip. If it’s a bust, then we’re probably in for another 2022 in terms of underperforming expectations.

[cycloneye]

Another run from Euro-AIFS that develops and this 12z run has it more west and going to outer banks. After this position, it moves NE out to sea.

[Stratton23]

Wouldnt be surprised to see the NHC put out a lemon 0/10 for our wave near the bahamas, definitely worth watching as the wave progresses through the gulf, GFS 18z is very close to closing off a weak tropical low, ICON kinda same, Euro weak low pressure, we need the rain here in texas badly, but we also know a weak system can cause trouble especially if it stalls out like what the euro depicts

[otowntiger]

[quote ="otowntiger"]

Amazed the GFS continues to show no hurricanes from now up to peak season during a predicted hyper active year…

Look again

yes- a 999mb low- maybe a weak TS or Depession at 16 days in MDR looking to recurve. Not very significant on its own but considering it’s been pretty desolate out there it is I guess. I’ll actually be surprised if it’s still there in the next run. [/quote]just like I said- GFS has nothing of consequence…. again.

[Stratton23]

It doesnt really matter if the GFS is showing a hurricane or not beyond 7 days lol, we know their will be hurricanes in the atlantic again, its just where and when lol, but with the front coming down next week, that absolutely could help to spark development in the gulf

[txwxwatcher]

A-lot to next week, will be watching the gulf of mexico carefully for development and possibly a MDR system too, its coming folks

A little less gloom and doom and, dare I say, -removed-, might be in order here…

[Teban54]

FWIW, 18z GEFS didn't go crazy like the last two 18z runs did. The support for the Central Atlantic wave seems similar to 12z, with about 8-10 members developing by day 10. While that's not a lot (~30%), it's about the same as the 12z EPS.

[mpic]

ICON 12z has a strong TS developing off the texas coast

And meandering for a coupes days over the gulf. Looks like the 12z gfs has a weak TS developing around the same time frame around South Texas coastline

Been aware and watching it. The local forecast is showing rain for 10 days starting Monday. Once my yard gets that wet, it takes a couple of weeks tondry enough to mow so I was busy all day and will be tomorrow mowing, etc. I'll also be spreading mosquito dunks in the ditches. We need rain badly, but it seems that the last few years have either been drought or flooding.

[Stratton23]

mpic yeah thats how it goes in texas, we go from drought to flooding on a flip of the dime, their just is no in between lol, we will have to see what happens and if these models runs coming out soon show anymore development, I will say the euro usually handles the upper air pattern better than the other globals, and it has weak low pressure stalling close to the middle texas coastline, we need the rain, but you never want to see a stall, even if its just a weak area of low pressure

[Stratton23]

00z ICON again shows tropical development off the texas coastline

[Hammy]

Models seem to be trending towards an absurd amount of shear over the next week or so, seemingly the reason why the models are backing off of development.

The question now is, if this actually plays out, what is going on with the atmosphere, what signs did we miss? None of this shear was predicted earlier.

If the models are wrong then we're pretty much flying blind the rest of the season and that's going to have dire consequences as far as ability to warn.

[OuterBanker]

Another run from Euro-AIFS that develops and this 12z run has it more west and going to outer banks. After this position, it moves NE out to sea.


https://i.imgur.com/KnkL3MS.jpeg

Luis, not gonna happen.

I was in Chicago mid July for a conference. Toured with employee's for half a day. Girlfriend asked what I would like to do for my birthday and I stated that I would like to return to Chicago and visit the art and science museums. As well as taking one of the architect tours. (I lost my wife of 43 yrs in January so I need this trip).

Have booked flights and hotel.

This is my 50th year on the OBX and I'm well aware of booking any trip in mid Sept is risky.

But I had little to say on being born on the peak of hurricane season (Sept 9th).

So for purely selfish reasons it can't happen.

[MarioProtVI]

Models seem to be trending towards an absurd amount of shear over the next week or so, seemingly the reason why the models are backing off of development.

The question now is, if this actually plays out, what is going on with the atmosphere, what signs did we miss? None of this shear was predicted earlier.

If the models are wrong then we're pretty much flying blind the rest of the season and that's going to have dire consequences as far as ability to warn.

I’m not sure where you’re looking at to come to this conclusion? My one thought to mind would be after effects of Shanshan downstream but I don’t think one recurving typhoon would have the claimed amount of impact unlike September 2020 which had a giant TUTT due to three recurving typhoons occurring in a very short timespan. Something like that would cause such shear, but here I don’t think is the case because you’d need them in short succession. Additionally, it also could miss shear produced by future Francine/Gordon (depending on if GoM mischief steals Francine before the wave does) which wouldn’t have as big an impact.

[Teban54]

FWIW, the MDR storm on 12z GFS is back on the 0z run.

[Hammy]

Models seem to be trending towards an absurd amount of shear over the next week or so, seemingly the reason why the models are backing off of development.

The question now is, if this actually plays out, what is going on with the atmosphere, what signs did we miss? None of this shear was predicted earlier.

If the models are wrong then we're pretty much flying blind the rest of the season and that's going to have dire consequences as far as ability to warn.

I’m not sure where you’re looking at to come to this conclusion? My one thought to mind would be after effects of Shanshan downstream but I don’t think one recurving typhoon would have the claimed amount of impact unlike September 2020 which had a giant TUTT due to three recurving typhoons occurring in a very short timespan. Something like that would cause such shear, but here I don’t think is the case because you’d need them in short succession. Additionally, it also could miss shear produced by future Francine/Gordon (depending on if GoM mischief steals Francine before the wave does) which wouldn’t have as big an impact.

I'm not sure the reasoning for the shear--there's no known variables that it would indicate the TUTT will strengthen (but then I have no idea why it did so in 2000 either) or whether this is an accurate forecast, but nonetheless this is the model output, and it's here without any storms being present. If they're measuring this incorrectly, or there's a flaw in the modeling, this would certainly explain the high degree of inconsistency from run to run.

[MarioProtVI]

Models seem to be trending towards an absurd amount of shear over the next week or so, seemingly the reason why the models are backing off of development.

The question now is, if this actually plays out, what is going on with the atmosphere, what signs did we miss? None of this shear was predicted earlier.

If the models are wrong then we're pretty much flying blind the rest of the season and that's going to have dire consequences as far as ability to warn.

I’m not sure where you’re looking at to come to this conclusion? My one thought to mind would be after effects of Shanshan downstream but I don’t think one recurving typhoon would have the claimed amount of impact unlike September 2020 which had a giant TUTT due to three recurving typhoons occurring in a very short timespan. Something like that would cause such shear, but here I don’t think is the case because you’d need them in short succession. Additionally, it also could miss shear produced by future Francine/Gordon (depending on if GoM mischief steals Francine before the wave does) which wouldn’t have as big an impact.

I'm not sure the reasoning for the shear--there's no known variables that it would indicate the TUTT will strengthen (but then I have no idea why it did so in 2000 either) or whether this is an accurate forecast, but nonetheless this is the model output, and it's here without any storms being present. If they're measuring this incorrectly, or there's a flaw in the modeling, this would certainly explain the high degree of inconsistency from run to run.


https://i.imgur.com/UiwD8TN.png
https://i.imgur.com/4YVceBr.png

Yeah I think it could be just GFS being stupid with conditions (and it is known to keep favorable conditions in the EPac longer than reality). It really is not its year it seems.


Meanwhile, the 00z Euro continues to uptrend with the wave and is now more compact as it approaches the Antilles.

[Stratton23]

I think the GFS is having trouble with genesis in the atlantic because it has a biacy of wanting to make the eastern pacific light up with activity, they may have something to do with it, or not

[skyline385]

EPS starting to pick up again, lots of members in 10 day range as well



Same for GEFS

[Stratton23]

GFS 06z back again with some gulf mischief

[LarryWx]

Another run from Euro-AIFS that develops and this 12z run has it more west and going to outer banks. After this position, it moves NE out to sea.


https://i.imgur.com/KnkL3MS.jpeg

The 18Z had it, too. But for the first time since the 6Z Aug 19th run (i.e., after a remarkable 23 straight runs) the 0Z Aug 25th AIFS run has no TC forming near the NE Caribbean around Sep 2nd.