EPAC: GILMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

With how fast this is unexpectedly intensifying, they might need a special advisory to update the intensity forecast. This is probably at least a low-end 4 now, 20 kt higher than the 5pm advisory.

[Kingarabian]

https://i.imgur.com/xvI3BjP.png

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

Best it has ever looked.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/vv3tpey.png

Best it has ever looked.

Probably 120-130 kt I reckon. That 95 kt 5pm estimate gets worse with every frame lol.

[Hurricane2022]

If the NHC don't issues an special update for Gilma, I bet it will be 115 - 120 kt at 03z. 95 kt from 21z aged worse than milk

[Kingarabian]

Stadium effect going on in the eye. Top end Cat.4.

[aspen]

Current satellite estimates are garbage. ADT is the highest at only 105 kt, and SATCON and others are 90-100 kt. I think it’s quite possible the NHC only goes with a high-end Cat 3 at the next advisory because the satellite estimates are running so low.

Honestly astounding how this system has been under-estimated not once, but twice in its lifetime. I dunno why upper-end Cat 4s between 120-140W always get underestimated like this.

[Kingarabian]

Current satellite estimates are garbage. ADT is the highest at only 105 kt, and SATCON and others are 90-100 kt. I think it’s quite possible the NHC only goes with a high-end Cat 3 at the next advisory because the satellite estimates are running so low.

Honestly astounding how this system has been under-estimated not once, but twice in its lifetime. I dunno why upper-end Cat 4s between 120-140W always get underestimated like this.

ADT raws have been at 6.0 for the past 3 hours. CI needs sometime because of constraints.

[WaveBreaking]

[Kingarabian]

Special Advisory out. They went with 105kts.

ADT Raws just jumped to 6.4.

Next Advisory constraints should be out and they will likely bump it up again.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Gilma Special Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024
200 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024

Gilma has continued to exhibit a solid inner core on infrared
imagery this afternoon. The eye has become more defined on visible
satellite imagery and has started to clear out. Recent
microwave imagery further confirmed that the structure of Gilma has
improved with a vertically aligned center and a well-established eye
wall. Satellite intensity estimates have continued to rise with
objective estimates now between 100-110 kt. Thus, the initial
intensity is set to 105 kt for this special advisory, and Gilma has
regained major hurricane strength as a Category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson wind scale.

The initial motion remains 275/8 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast
to gradually build to the north of Gilma during the next several
days, and this should steer the cyclone on a generally westward, or
just north of westward, track through the forecast period. The
NHC track has not changed with this special advisory forecast.

The intensity forecast has had some significant changes compared to
the previous advisory in the short term, given the initial
intensity being increased, and the new NHC forecast calls for some
additional strengthening in the near term. Beyond 12 h gradual then
steady weakening is forecast to occur as Gilma moves over cooler
sea surface temperatures and into a drier more stable airmass. The
system is still forecast to become a remnant low in 120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0000Z 17.7N 131.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 17.8N 132.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 18.0N 133.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 18.2N 135.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 18.4N 137.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 18.6N 139.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 18.9N 141.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 19.5N 145.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 20.2N 150.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly[

[aspen]

Okay good, a special advisory. Now Gilma just needs to hold its presentation until 11pm for a second chance at Cat 4 intensity (I bet it’ll only get bumped up to 110 kt again lol).

[Kingarabian]

Models have been correcting in terms of Gilmas intensity.

[Kingarabian]

SAB came in with 6.0.

Would've been 6.5 if they broke constraints.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye cooled down a little but CDO expanding outwards.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ28 KNES 250038
TCSENP

A. 07E (GILMA)

B. 25/0001Z

C. 17.8N

D. 131.4W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY AND EMBEDDED IN B RESULTS IN A
DT OF 6.5 AFTER ADDING 1.0 FOR THE EYE ADJUSTMENT. THE MET AND PT ARE
6.0 BASED ON A RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE FT
IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS SINCE THE SIX HOUR AVERAGE DT OF 5.9 DID NOT
JUSTIFY BREAKING CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...COVERDALE

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 07, 2024082500, , BEST, 0, 177N, 1314W, 110, 955, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 20, 30, 1011, 240, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GILMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 018,

[Hurricane2022]

The eye has degraded some in the last frames.

[aspen]

EP, 07, 2024082500, , BEST, 0, 177N, 1314W, 110, 955, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 20, 30, 1011, 240, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GILMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 018,

Called it lol.