2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cycloneye]

This is the grim look from GFS for September 10th that is peak season day. You would expect at least one or two areas of interest on the basin that date, but for now nothing. Let's see if GFS and other models change to more bullish in the next couple of weeks.

[gatorcane]

And this is the GFS wind shear forecast as we approach the peak. Looks quite hostile but I am skeptical it will really end up looking like that:

[otowntiger]

This is the grim look from GFS for September 10th that is peak season day. You would expect at least one or two areas of interest on the basin that date, but for now nothing. Let's see if GFS and other models change to more bullish in the next couple of weeks.

https://i.imgur.com/zJru6KE.png

You mean “grim” in best possible way, right?

[cajungal]

This is the grim look from GFS for September 10th that is peak season day. You would expect at least one or two areas of interest on the basin that date, but for now nothing. Let's see if GFS and other models change to more bullish in the next couple of weeks.

https://i.imgur.com/zJru6KE.png

I am in shock. I bet the experts that put out the very bullish hyperactive forecasts are scratching their heads. Something drastic changed since June/July

[Hurricaneman]

Maybe the models are showing less instability due to the subtropics warming up to above normal too causing less instability and thus the models are showing little to no activity

[Stormlover70]

SAL is the inhibiting factor in my opinion. The climatology models have no analog for this.

[Category5Kaiju]

What I find especially interesting is that many of these models seem to show the EPAC quieting down after Gilma and (maybe?) Hector leave the picture, so you would think it would be the Atlantic's turn next

Now as for why the models seem to want to make the Atlantic so quiet....that I don't know. Maybe it's similar to what happened in 2022 as the ocean off the Canadian coast seems to be much warmer than normal, but then again, the deep tropics are also pretty darn warm unlike 2013 or 2022, so I don't know if that theory is correct.

[Teban54]

I mean, 6z GFS has this... But yeah, let's pretend it doesn't exist and there's absolutely nothing through 384 hrs.

[txwxwatcher]

This is the grim look from GFS for September 10th that is peak season day. You would expect at least one or two areas of interest on the basin that date, but for now nothing. Let's see if GFS and other models change to more bullish in the next couple of weeks.

https://i.imgur.com/zJru6KE.png

Grim?? This looks beautiful to me and about 3 million or so of my fellow Houston residents. A map like that is glorious for us to see.

[DunedinDave]

This is the grim look from GFS for September 10th that is peak season day. You would expect at least one or two areas of interest on the basin that date, but for now nothing. Let's see if GFS and other models change to more bullish in the next couple of weeks.

https://i.imgur.com/zJru6KE.png

Grim?? This looks beautiful to me and about 3 million or so of my fellow Houston residents. A map like that is glorious for us to see.

I agree. I know we have a lot of people I disagree with here but I’m good with a map showing no storms up through Sept 10. Our local meteorologist was talking about the season last night and said he was surprised at the lack of activity approaching peak day.

[Javlin]

SAL is the inhibiting factor in my opinion. The climatology models have no analog for this.

100% agree even now you still see dry air some SAl 20N out to 55W and the absence of clouds/moisture in them.I for one am happy but not happy about the insurers soaking us in anticipation of activity.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

[cajungal]

Experts are still expecting the dry air and SAL to diminish for September and they are predicting a back log and it to get busy again. But you think the models would be showing something by now. So we will see

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I mean, 6z GFS has this... But yeah, let's pretend it doesn't exist and there's absolutely nothing through 384 hrs.

https://i.postimg.cc/LXF67Lhb/gfs-mslp-wind-watl-38.png

One run, little ensemble support or support from any other models, and nearly 10 days out.

True it's more than nothing, but it's very close to it.

[Teban54]

I mean, 6z GFS has this... But yeah, let's pretend it doesn't exist and there's absolutely nothing through 384 hrs.

https://i.postimg.cc/LXF67Lhb/gfs-mslp-wind-watl-38.png

One run, little ensemble support or support from any other models, and nearly 10 days out.

True it's more than nothing, but it's very close to it.

I agree with everything you said, but my main point was that it's especially misleading to post a 384 hr map with no development and say something along the lines of "not even a model storm out there", when the same run did show a model storm - just before 384 hrs.

Also, if people start being skeptical whenever a long-range model storm (Day 8 in this case) show up, why do people take runs with no development at face value, especially when they are in an even longer time frame (Day 16)?

[Category5Kaiju]

I mean, 6z GFS has this... But yeah, let's pretend it doesn't exist and there's absolutely nothing through 384 hrs.

https://i.postimg.cc/LXF67Lhb/gfs-mslp-wind-watl-38.png

One run, little ensemble support or support from any other models, and nearly 10 days out.

True it's more than nothing, but it's very close to it.

I agree with everything you said, but my main point was that it's especially misleading to post a 384 hr map with no development and say something along the lines of "not even a model storm out there", when the same run did show a model storm - just before 384 hrs.

Also, if people start being skeptical whenever a long-range model storm (Day 8 in this case) show up, why do people take runs with no development at face value, especially when they are in an even longer time frame (Day 16)?

This is why I personally put more stock into ensembles than operational models. I mean, don't get me wrong, I do believe operational models have great use and have really helped tropical meteorology, but it seems like as of recently, ensembles have been better at sniffing out activity earlier than operationals have (Beryl and Debby come into mind), even if sometimes, the ensembles don't latch on coherently to a certain storm until mid-range.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I mean, 6z GFS has this... But yeah, let's pretend it doesn't exist and there's absolutely nothing through 384 hrs.

https://i.postimg.cc/LXF67Lhb/gfs-mslp-wind-watl-38.png

One run, little ensemble support or support from any other models, and nearly 10 days out.

True it's more than nothing, but it's very close to it.

I agree with everything you said, but my main point was that it's especially misleading to post a 384 hr map with no development and say something along the lines of "not even a model storm out there", when the same run did show a model storm - just before 384 hrs.

Also, if people start being skeptical whenever a long-range model storm (Day 8 in this case) show up, why do people take runs with no development at face value, especially when they are in an even longer time frame (Day 16)?

Consistency and across-the-board agreement is why. Exactly 1 run of the GFS has shown this solution in Day 8. There's been multi-model consensus for days now of it being absolutely dead in the Atlantic as the calendar flips into September over the next week. Inevitably, the 12z GFS will drop this system and we'll be back to the same background state. This is noteworthy, especially considering the strong signals for a hyperactive season.

[toad strangler]

I mean, 6z GFS has this... But yeah, let's pretend it doesn't exist and there's absolutely nothing through 384 hrs.

https://i.postimg.cc/LXF67Lhb/gfs-mslp-wind-watl-38.png

One run, little ensemble support or support from any other models, and nearly 10 days out.

True it's more than nothing, but it's very close to it.

I agree with everything you said, but my main point was that it's especially misleading to post a 384 hr map with no development and say something along the lines of "not even a model storm out there", when the same run did show a model storm - just before 384 hrs.

Also, if people start being skeptical whenever a long-range model storm (Day 8 in this case) show up, why do people take runs with no development at face value, especially when they are in an even longer time frame (Day 16)?

I think there will be plenty of egg on face to go around once December rolls around. It’s just too darn early. Regardless of preseason forecasts and current model runs. I know a place with amazing deal on fresh eggs

[tolakram]

One run, little ensemble support or support from any other models, and nearly 10 days out.

True it's more than nothing, but it's very close to it.

I agree with everything you said, but my main point was that it's especially misleading to post a 384 hr map with no development and say something along the lines of "not even a model storm out there", when the same run did show a model storm - just before 384 hrs.

Also, if people start being skeptical whenever a long-range model storm (Day 8 in this case) show up, why do people take runs with no development at face value, especially when they are in an even longer time frame (Day 16)?

I think there will be plenty of egg on face to go around once December rolls around. It’s just too darn early. Regardless of preseason forecasts and current model runs. I know a place with amazing deal on fresh eggs

I'll disagree, but my response in the seasonal indicators thread.

[DunedinDave]

One run, little ensemble support or support from any other models, and nearly 10 days out.

True it's more than nothing, but it's very close to it.

I agree with everything you said, but my main point was that it's especially misleading to post a 384 hr map with no development and say something along the lines of "not even a model storm out there", when the same run did show a model storm - just before 384 hrs.

Also, if people start being skeptical whenever a long-range model storm (Day 8 in this case) show up, why do people take runs with no development at face value, especially when they are in an even longer time frame (Day 16)?

I think there will be plenty of egg on face to go around once December rolls around. It’s just too darn early. Regardless of preseason forecasts and current model runs. I know a place with amazing deal on fresh eggs

Is it early? The peak is two weeks away and it looks like there’s a chance we could be heading into that with 0 storms. Once we get past Sept 10 we are on the slide down. Usually once Oct rolls around it dies down significantly.

We’ll see. But right now I’m cautiously optimistic of a quieter than expected season. Holding out hope because after Debby we can’t use anymore rain.

[Weathertracker96]

Well the ICON looks to have a some activity on the 12z run.