2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Category5Kaiju]

Well the ICON looks to have a some activity in the 12z run.

Looks to be the same MDR system that other models have developed at some point in recent days. And the GFS and Euro ensembles haven't exactly dropped this system entirely as of yet.

I mean, it's not a screaming signal, but at the same time it's also not nothing. Worth watching in my humble opinion.

[Nuno]

This is the grim look from GFS for September 10th that is peak season day. You would expect at least one or two areas of interest on the basin that date, but for now nothing. Let's see if GFS and other models change to more bullish in the next couple of weeks.

Grim?? This looks beautiful to me and about 3 million or so of my fellow Houston residents. A map like that is glorious for us to see.

I agree. I know we have a lot of people I disagree with here but I’m good with a map showing no storms up through Sept 10. Our local meteorologist was talking about the season last night and said he was surprised at the lack of activity approaching peak day.

I mean, it's not "any"casting, this is a forum of amateur and professional weather trackers and enthusiasts. Nothing wrong with being mystified by cyclones and wanting to see development in the open ocean to scratch the tracking itch. So weird that people come here and make comments as if everyone wants a category 5 to hit a populated area. Car accident victims don't go to race tracks and shame racing fans because of the risk of a crash during the race

On topic, I see that 12z ICON near the islands. 12z GFS is running on tidbits and for once it's not destroying convection off Africa.

 https://twitter.com/ATCTropics/status/1827735372366778784

[MGC]

Still a good bit of dry air and shear across the Atlantic basin. Been this way for a few weeks now. The trend is your friend. Maybe the switch is broken this year? I'm enjoying the quiet......MGC

[tolakram]

I have re-added the censoring of the wish words. This is a reminder that it's an accusation towards another poster that IS NOT ALLOWED. If you think a post violates S2K rules report it, otherwise state your opinion about the topic at hand, not the poster.

[Stratton23]

I dont think the switch is broken,I think its just delayed, my concern i have here is models continuously showing unfavorable conditions , and something pops up closer to home which globals dont see, always gotta watch that, and we will have to see if we get a CAG setup later down the road in september- October , so these AEW’s are just one part of the equation in my opinion

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

I mean, 6z GFS has this... But yeah, let's pretend it doesn't exist and there's absolutely nothing through 384 hrs.

https://i.postimg.cc/LXF67Lhb/gfs-mslp-wind-watl-38.png

2 weeks+ out? is that the best you got?

season Cancel bro's looking like total chads right now

[Teban54]

FWIW, the MDR storm on 12z GFS is back on the 0z run.

This eastern MDR system is back on the 12z run today. This makes it three consecutive 0z/12z runs (12z 8/24, 0z 8/25, 12z 8/25) that show development of a system near 30W around day 8-10, on September 3. There seems to be a general rule of thumb that 0z and 12z GFS runs are more reliable than 6z and 18z.

In other news, just like its 0z run, 12z CMC didn't develop the central MDR wave on August 31 (which it had been doing for days starting from 0z 8/22, until and including yesterday's 12z run). However, it shows hints of the vorticity organizing towards the end of this run on September 2-4, ending the run N of Puerto Rico.

[canes04]

Come on NHC, throw us a bone or lemon for the wave at 10/23. The models seem to stick with this one overall.
it's south enough to come together in a few days.

[Stratton23]

Anyone else find it odd that usually the 00z and 12z run times of the models are usually the more active runs ( excluding this gfs run) , for whatever reason the 6z and and 18z always seem like they arent that active, just something strange ive noticed over the last couple of years lol

[ConvergenceZone]

In spite of the models showing quiet through early September, I still think we will see 2 to 3 storms in mid to late September, and then maybe 1 to 3 after that into early November.

[otowntiger]

One run, little ensemble support or support from any other models, and nearly 10 days out.

True it's more than nothing, but it's very close to it.

I agree with everything you said, but my main point was that it's especially misleading to post a 384 hr map with no development and say something along the lines of "not even a model storm out there", when the same run did show a model storm - just before 384 hrs.

Also, if people start being skeptical whenever a long-range model storm (Day 8 in this case) show up, why do people take runs with no development at face value, especially when they are in an even longer time frame (Day 16)?

I think there will be plenty of egg on face to go around once December rolls around. It’s just too darn early. Regardless of preseason forecasts and current model runs. I know a place with amazing deal on fresh eggs

. True, but
all of the forecasters who predicted the super busy, super impactful season could also be the ones with egg on their face for all we know, (or more correctly stated: don’t know) at this point.

[MarioProtVI]

In spite of the models showing quiet through early September, I still think we will see 2 to 3 storms in mid to late September, and then maybe 1 to 3 after that into early November.

I’m sorry but this is basically impossible. No way we only get 3-6 more storms the entire season.

[ConvergenceZone]

In spite of the models showing quiet through early September, I still think we will see 2 to 3 storms in mid to late September, and then maybe 1 to 3 after that into early November.

I’m sorry but this is basically impossible. No way we only get 3-6 more storms the entire season.

Yea it could be a bit higher, and looking back I may have been a bit low on the October/ early November numbers, but for September, 3 storms over 2 to 3 weeks is pretty decent. That's like 1 storm a week. We will see what the GFS and Euro start to show a week from now. I think that's the key since September is only 1 week away.

[al78]

In spite of the models showing quiet through early September, I still think we will see 2 to 3 storms in mid to late September, and then maybe 1 to 3 after that into early November.

I’m sorry but this is basically impossible. No way we only get 3-6 more storms the entire season.

Unless we have a year where intra-seasonal variability completely overwhelmes the large scale climate predictors, as what happened in 2013 and to a lesser extent in August 2022.

[Stratton23]

Dont forget we usually see a CAG like setup develope in late september and early october, so thats another way we could get development if most of the waves continue to struggle, thats why i dont think the US is safe until after october

[Hammy]

In spite of the models showing quiet through early September, I still think we will see 2 to 3 storms in mid to late September, and then maybe 1 to 3 after that into early November.

I’m sorry but this is basically impossible. No way we only get 3-6 more storms the entire season.

Yea it could be a bit higher, and looking back I may have been a bit low on the October/ early November numbers, but for September, 3 storms over 2 to 3 weeks is pretty decent. That's like 1 storm a week. We will see what the GFS and Euro start to show a week from now. I think that's the key since September is only 1 week away.

The CFS has been showing a backloaded season since July, I'm not sure where people are getting that we're barely going to reach ten storms. In fact, Pivotal Weather's map coverage (which is only the western basin) shows 5-7 storms through September 25--the basin-wide model shows an MDR outbreak after that as the ITCZ slips southward as it tends to do that time of year, along with favorable upper air conditions in October

[Category5Kaiju]

I’m sorry but this is basically impossible. No way we only get 3-6 more storms the entire season.

Yea it could be a bit higher, and looking back I may have been a bit low on the October/ early November numbers, but for September, 3 storms over 2 to 3 weeks is pretty decent. That's like 1 storm a week. We will see what the GFS and Euro start to show a week from now. I think that's the key since September is only 1 week away.

The CFS has been showing a backloaded season since July, I'm not sure where people are getting that we're barely going to reach ten storms. In fact, Pivotal Weather's map coverage (which is only the western basin) shows 5-7 storms through September 25--the basin-wide model shows an MDR outbreak after that as the ITCZ slips southward as it tends to do that time of year, along with favorable upper air conditions in October

https://i.imgur.com/B0sBN0N.png

I'm going to sum up the mentality in four sentences

Models show barely anything for the forseeable future ---> It's late August ---> Whatever conditions are behind this must be an issue for most of, if not, the entire season ---> This season is a bust

[cycloneye]

Wow, since 1994.

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1827774731681993030

[boca]

I will give this season another 2 weeks because the ITCZ is supposed to slip south again, but why aren’t we getting home grown development either. If nothing happens I will be skeptical of early season predictions.

[Blown Away]

Amazed the GFS continues to show no hurricanes from now up to peak season during a predicted hyper active year…

I still stand by this comment!