2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[PTrackerLA]

Here we go?

[Category5Kaiju]

Here we go?

https://i.imgur.com/LvVSvR0.png

Looks like we’re now getting a consensus between ensembles and the operationals. Also doesn’t really comfort me that this potential system seems to be moving more westward

[Stratton23]

On this run it gets turned to the north by a trough over the atlantic, near puerto rico, not that it means much 240+ hours out, the fact that the GFS. is now on board gives me pretty good confidence its going to get tagged soon and probably will become francine in the future

[TomballEd]

Track is far too early to call, as is shifts N and S in guidance from a week away with GFS and Euro not in agreement. I'm pretty sure something develops, several models and ensembles develop it. The 7 day lemon is coming soon.

[Stratton23]

18z GEFS has some activity trying to perk up off the texas coast, EPS probability guidance has a 30-40% chance of formation right off the coast in the 120-168 hour range

[climateconcernnew]

A day before there were folks calling it a season bust then GFS and Euro proved them wrong.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

A day before there were folks calling it a season bust then GFS and Euro proved them wrong.

All major points regarding this season's now very obvious handicap do not become invalid because of one storm at the peak of the season.

[skyline385]

A day before there were folks calling it a season bust then GFS and Euro proved them wrong.

I haven't seen anyone call the season a complete bust, but there were some serious discussions in regards to the delay and the gap after Ernesto. Even Eric Blake on twitter was joining in on the discussions and said several times that it is confusing why the season is seeing this break. So if someone as experienced as Blake from the NHC can admit being confounded by the break in the season activity, then it is very much worth discussing and not something to be dismissed just because models show activity in early September.

 https://x.com/EricBlake12/status/1827764113130340690



 https://x.com/EricBlake12/status/1827697115231121799

[Ivanhater]

If it develops before the Caribbean, the signal is similar to Ernesto with this curving well east of the US. The pattern has been a consistent trough off the east Coast. If it struggles until the western Caribbean, then I can see it being a threat.

Obviously early but the early ensembles for Ernesto were pretty dead on

[Stratton23]

Well it definitely appears that break is going to be coming to an abrupt end soon

[Teban54]

A day before there were folks calling it a season bust then GFS and Euro proved them wrong.

All major points regarding this season's now very obvious handicap do not become invalid because of one storm at the peak of the season.

The problem is that folks over-emphasize any negative factor(s) simply because of no storms through a 15-day period.

I have made this point several times, but I maintain this: 2024's seasonal timeline still closely resembles 2017-without-Harvey. (Yes, I know you can't arbitrarily exclude storms, but then there's Beryl too.) Irma "only" formed on August 30, and all other MDR storms until then were weak and struggling. But apparently, now that we're looking at 2017 in hindsight, nobody talks about some apocalyptic inhibiting factor that made the deep tropics of 2017 so unfavorable that it couldn't generate more than 5 ACE in the MDR until YTD.

(This comment can also serve as a reply to skyline's comment above. Yes, people can still discuss any negative factors, but to think that they're so negative to make the season the "biggest bust ever" is just too premature, especially when I've posted several analyses that having one of them individually can still give you hyperactive ACE. We still have the entire September ahead of us, even if it's not like 2017.

[tolakram]

Has to be named on or before Sept 2nd to have a storm exist on labor day, my useless metric of the moment.

I only saw a few posts calling on a really dead season, I think most of us just came to the conclusion that there's now very little chance of hitting the extreme predicted numbers. If somehow we do though, oof.

[Teban54]

If it develops before the Caribbean, the signal is similar to Ernesto with this curving well east of the US. The pattern has been a consistent trough off the east Coast. If it struggles until the western Caribbean, then I can see it being a threat.

Obviously early but the early ensembles for Ernesto were pretty dead on

On the other hand, the early Euro ensembles for Debby failed horrendously by recurving it east of the Bahamas. To some extent, that also applied to Beryl. Given model inconsistencies this season (not to mention in forecasting the possible formation of this storm itself), it's most prudent to just wait and see.

[skyline385]

A day before there were folks calling it a season bust then GFS and Euro proved them wrong.

All major points regarding this season's now very obvious handicap do not become invalid because of one storm at the peak of the season.

The problem is that folks over-emphasize any negative factor(s) simply because of no storms through a 15-day period.

I have made this point several times, but I maintain this: 2024's seasonal timeline still closely resembles 2017-without Harvey. (Yes, I know you can't arbitrarily exclude storms, but then there's Beryl too.) Irma "only" formed on August 30, and all other MDR storms until then were weak and struggling. But apparently, now that we're looking at 2017 in hindsight, nobody talks about some apocalyptic inhibiting factor that made the deep tropics of 2017 so unfavorable that it couldn't generate more than 5 ACE until YTD.

On the topic of "folks over-emphasize any negative factor(s)", people also do it the other way. Any discussion regarding inhibiting factors is immediately called as season bustcasting even if experts themselves are having a discussion on it. It would definitely be much better if people wouldnt be jumping between the two extremes so that nuanced discussions in between can be had. Also bear in Irma formed much further east than models are showing for this system which should be somewhere in early September. Irma was an anomaly so I would hold on before making the comparisons to 2017.

[tolakram]

A day before there were folks calling it a season bust then GFS and Euro proved them wrong.

All major points regarding this season's now very obvious handicap do not become invalid because of one storm at the peak of the season.

The problem is that folks over-emphasize any negative factor(s) simply because of no storms through a 15-day period.

I have made this point several times, but I maintain this: 2024's seasonal timeline still closely resembles 2017-without-Harvey. (Yes, I know you can't arbitrarily exclude storms, but then there's Beryl too.) Irma "only" formed on August 30, and all other MDR storms until then were weak and struggling. But apparently, now that we're looking at 2017 in hindsight, nobody talks about some apocalyptic inhibiting factor that made the deep tropics of 2017 so unfavorable that it couldn't generate more than 5 ACE in the MDR until YTD.

(This comment can also serve as a reply to skyline's comment above. Yes, people can still discuss any negative factors, but to think that they're so negative to make the season the "biggest bust ever" is just too premature, especially when I've posted several analyses that having one of them individually can still give you hyperactive ACE. We still have the entire September ahead of us, even if it's not like 2017.

I'm glad you have given us permission to discuss it. Now let's do any more discussion over in the seasonal thread, not here please.

[Ivanhater]

If it develops before the Caribbean, the signal is similar to Ernesto with this curving well east of the US. The pattern has been a consistent trough off the east Coast. If it struggles until the western Caribbean, then I can see it being a threat.

Obviously early but the early ensembles for Ernesto were pretty dead on

On the other hand, the early Euro ensembles for Debby failed horrendously by recurving it east of the Bahamas. To some extent, that also applied to Beryl. Given model inconsistencies this season (not to mention in forecasting the possible formation of this storm itself), it's most prudent to just wait and see.

True but I don't see anything on the models that suggest the persistent trough over the east coast the last several weeks changing. If somehow any waves that fly under the radar get into the western Caribbean, then all bets are off. I do see that becoming a problem later on.

[SFLcane]

Gfs op has this thing entering the Caribbean near 12-13n and still manages to recurve before 70w. Looks more an Oct pattern

[weeniepatrol]

12z Euro and 18z GFS are consistent not only with their ensembles but also each other. Remarkable agreement.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks, now we have the TWO, so all the model runs for that system will be posted at the thread for it. https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 9#p3083009

[Teban54]

In addition to the 0/20 AOI, 18z GEFS also has two smaller clusters:

1. A wave trailing the 0/20 that leaves Africa on 8/31, with some consolidation just west of Cabo Verde on 9/3. The support is currently not as strong with about 13 members (42%) showing a low, and members that do develop it have huge variance, either staying weak or on a quick recurve.

2. Something in the Western Caribbean and/or Gulf (CAG?), with lows forming anywhere from 9/3 to 9/6. Hard to count, but I estimate 10 members or so. While most of them crash into CA or go west into the BoC, 4 members have Cat 2+ landfalls on the northern Gulf Coast.

12z EPS doesn't have #2 (so it may be GFS bias), but is a bit more enthusiastic on one or more waves behind #1, seemingly because EPS has the waves emerge further south than GEFS.

These are obviously much further out in time, but that was also the state that the yellow AOI was in 5 days ago.