Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[MarioProtVI]

Kinda decent looking IMO. Not sure if this is the wave the ensembles and some models seem to like or not, but definitely better then the previous waves. Need to watch it though maybe.

[Teban54]

The wave definitely seems to be holding its convection together pretty well, more so than the model runs and "dry Atlantic" calls would make you think. Whether it outperforms the models remain a question, however.

[LarryWx]

I believe that this is the disturbance that the ICON and 20+ Euro-AIFS runs in a row were developing near the start of Sep (in about 5-8 days) as it approached the Leewards.

[Teban54]

I believe that this is the disturbance that the ICON and 20+ Euro-AIFS runs in a row were developing near the start of Sep (in about 5-8 days) as it approached the Leewards.

ICON still develops either this wave or one to the west:

[WaveBreaking]

NHC will probably put a lemon on this in the next couple of days. IMO it should be a 0/10 or a 0/20 since it has decent ensemble support.

[WaveBreaking]

Still looks good on ASCAT




Wave axis is almost W-E. Need northerlies on the west side for a closed circulation.

[Hurricaneman]

The GEFS, EPS and op Euro seem to want to develop this feature sometime later this week into the weekend and a lot of those GFS and Euro ensembles are showing a substantial system from this in the western part of the basin as we go into September so this might be one to really watch as we go forward

By the way the 12zEuro shows a TS from this near Puerto Rico at the end of the run

[Nimbus]

The GEFS, EPS and op Euro seem to want to develop this feature sometime later this week into the weekend and a lot of those GFS and Euro ensembles are showing a substantial system from this in the western part of the basin as we go into September so this might be one to really watch as we go forward

By the way the 12zEuro shows a TS from this near Puerto Rico at the end of the run

Going to be a long thread.
12Z Icon tracks this north of Puerto Rico 12Z euro south through the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

The GEFS, EPS and op Euro seem to want to develop this feature sometime later this week into the weekend and a lot of those GFS and Euro ensembles are showing a substantial system from this in the western part of the basin as we go into September so this might be one to really watch as we go forward

By the way the 12zEuro shows a TS from this near Puerto Rico at the end of the run

Going to be a long thread.
12Z Icon tracks this north of Puerto Rico 12Z euro south through the Caribbean.

Well, if or when it is a invest, this thread will close and the invest one will be the long one.

[climateconcernnew]

As per 18z GFS, in 190+ hrs it attains a mere depression around Lesser Antilles.

[underthwx]

The GEFS, EPS and op Euro seem to want to develop this feature sometime later this week into the weekend and a lot of those GFS and Euro ensembles are showing a substantial system from this in the western part of the basin as we go into September so this might be one to really watch as we go forward

By the way the 12zEuro shows a TS from this near Puerto Rico at the end of the run

Going to be a long thread.
12Z Icon tracks this north of Puerto Rico 12Z euro south through the Caribbean.

Well, if or when it is a invest, this thread will close and the invest one will be the long one.

True that CE.....do you feel this wave has potential to develop?...

[MarioProtVI]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could form in the central portion of the
Tropical Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter, environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of
this system by this weekend into early next week as it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[weeniepatrol]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could form in the central portion of the
Tropical Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter, environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of
this system by this weekend into early next week as it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Edited the title to have the area mentioned in TWO.

[Ubuntwo]

Upper-level pattern on GFS vs Euro ensembles could not be more different. Ten days out here. Long way to go...

[Ubuntwo]

Upper-level pattern on GFS vs Euro ensembles could not be more different. Ten days out here. Long way to go...

And the operational runs.

[cheezyWXguy]

Upper-level pattern on GFS vs Euro ensembles could not be more different. Ten days out here. Long way to go...

And the operational runs.
https://i.imgur.com/vmCg2YR.png
https://i.imgur.com/KmmAc5Z.png

I haven’t looked much at the euro, but gfs runs vary considerably in 500mb pattern beyond 7 days from run to run. I’m expecting some rather dramatic windshield wiping over the coming days.

[Category5Kaiju]

This is going to be the F storm, isn't it?

From Florence to Fiona to Floyd to Flora, it's like "I curse lite."

I do think this will be one to really watch in the coming days. Lots of fresh fuel for it to work with.

[aspen]

Upper-level pattern on GFS vs Euro ensembles could not be more different. Ten days out here. Long way to go...

And the operational runs.
https://i.imgur.com/vmCg2YR.png
https://i.imgur.com/KmmAc5Z.png

Pretty classic GFS vs Euro pattern biases: GFS with constant troughing and lots of exits for storms, Euro with lots of ridging.

While it’s obviously way too far out to have any confidence in its track, I think if this system forms, we could get a Fiona ‘22-like track: through the Leeward Islands/Virgin Islands/PR/DR before going into (or very close to) Atlantic Canada. An intermediate track between these two extremes that’s popped up a few times in recent years.

[Teban54]

This is going to be the F storm, isn't it?

From Florence to Fiona to Floyd to Flora, it's like "I curse lite."

I do think this will be one to really watch in the coming days. Lots of fresh fuel for it to work with.

Fun fact: F is the only letter that had all its 6 names on the original naming lists retired. (This is not suggesting that Francine will be the first 2nd-gen F name to be retired, though some ensemble members want it to be.)