Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[Blown Away]

Storms these days seem to like clipping the NE Caribbean and hard right turn towards Bermuda and OTS… The ensembles don’t show any of this stoudt ridging to push storms W of @70W… We shall see…

[emeraldislenc]

Way to early to say with certainty where the possible atorm will go!

[AnnularCane]

Upper-level pattern on GFS vs Euro ensembles could not be more different. Ten days out here. Long way to go...

And the operational runs.
https://i.imgur.com/vmCg2YR.png
https://i.imgur.com/KmmAc5Z.png

I haven’t looked much at the euro, but gfs runs vary considerably in 500mb pattern beyond 7 days from run to run. I’m expecting some rather dramatic windshield wiping over the coming days.

Right now weather.com has a high of 65 for my area next Wednesday (welcome to fall!). I'm guessing they favor the GFS? Will have to see if that changes any as time goes on.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

That’s another Bermuda setup if I’ve ever seen one.

[Stratton23]

I wouldnt be so sure about that, way early in the game, folks on the eastern us coast should be keeping an eye on this one

[cycloneye]

Nothing organizing at this time, but there is an area with plenty of lightning strikes.

[cycloneye]

00z ICON ends run here.

[Stratton23]

And Ka poof goes the 00z GFS, monsoon trough troubles strike again

[mantis83]

And Ka poof goes the 00z GFS, monsoon trough troubles strike again

If anything did form, would most likely recurve away from the east coast of America……

[Stratton23]

mantis83 that is incorrect

[Ubuntwo]

And Ka poof goes the 00z GFS, monsoon trough troubles strike again

If anything did form, would most likely recurve away from the east coast of America……

Not if development is delayed until the western Caribbean/Gulf, or if a ridge is over the Antilles instead of a trough as per the EC solution... Wait, there are actually plenty of routes to a threat here. If you're alluding to the climatology of CV systems, yes, the majority do miss the United States. That doesn't make this a constructive comment.

[LarryWx]

0Z CMC: more developed than 12Z with a weak sfc low skirting N coast of Hispaniola and becomes TC in far SE Bahamas. Dangerous track.

0Z UKMET: still no TCG

[Stratton23]

00z Euro is weaker, but notice stronger ridging to the systems north, definitely not a recurve run….

[Cachondo23]

NHC pulled the trigger too soon for this lemon?

[MarioProtVI]

And 06z GFS still has no development and ensembles also trended much weaker as well. Wtaf is going on.

[TomballEd]

GFS family seems less enthusiastic about the AOI today. The Euro and Canadian ensembles still like it. 12Z trends will be interesting. But I'd trust multiple models, including the Euro, against the GFS. And the GEFS haven't lost it completely.

[invest man]

And 06z GFS still has no development and ensembles also trended much weaker as well. Wtaf is going on.

Based on 0z and 6z runs along with satellite, would not be surprised to see this lemon go to 0/10 and then if 12z still shows nothing, then removed all together. As far a model performances this summer. To this point models have been fairly accurate. When no modeling and no storms. Now if there was no modeling and storms blew up, then we might have something to discuss.

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could form in the central portion of the
Tropical Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter, environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of
this system this weekend into early next week as it moves westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

[underthwx]

NHC pulled the trigger too soon for this lemon?

Doubt that highly....its the NHC....no disrespect to you...

[Category5Kaiju]

Interestingly, compared to yesterday when the AOI first popped up, the zone of potential formation has lengthened eastward