2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[jlauderdal]

I think we may have 1-2 named storms before Sept. 10th, but that's only 6-7 named storms at the midway point. ICON develops a frontal low off the TX coast next Tue-Wed. It has lows in the 60s and highs in the low 80s across Houston. Other models have mid 70s for lows to low to mid 90s for highs. I think it's unlikely a cold front will move into the Gulf next week.

GFS & Euro are developing something in the subtropical Atlantic that's now over Africa. Bermuda high is very weak and far east. Will be hard to get any developing storm into the Caribbean with the current pattern. Waves would track east, but likely with little or no convection. Could also see something develop off a front NE or E of Bermuda.

Instability across the MDR is quite low, similar to what we typically see in March or April. Quite an amazing pattern as we approach peak season. My coworker was arguing for only 10 named storms this year, but I only lowered our numbers to 18/8/4. Might be hard to reach 18 named storms, though. I figure 4-6 in September and maybe 3-4 in October. That's 15. Could see one or two in November. Let's hope they all stay out to sea.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

So I have a question. Let’s just say no storms develop between now and 9/10 and we get only a few after that. Did the Hurricane forecasters flat out miss the environmental conditions and have egg on their face or is this something that was a complete curveball that no one could have predicted? I’m just trying to wrap my head around all this doom and gloom forecasts from June surrounding the upcoming season and now we’re talking about “potentially” a relatively quiet year.

Also wanted to say thanks for all you do. I always enjoy your posts on here especially when things get busy.

The models did them wrong and showed a much more favorable environment than has actually occurred. I never paid much attention to seasonal forecasts, it doesnt change anything as far as preps or anything else goes. It makes for good headlines during the season but as a practical matter, they dont serve much purpose at this point except provide funding for some entities.

[MarioProtVI]

I think we may have 1-2 named storms before Sept. 10th, but that's only 6-7 named storms at the midway point. ICON develops a frontal low off the TX coast next Tue-Wed. It has lows in the 60s and highs in the low 80s across Houston. Other models have mid 70s for lows to low to mid 90s for highs. I think it's unlikely a cold front will move into the Gulf next week.

GFS & Euro are developing something in the subtropical Atlantic that's now over Africa. Bermuda high is very weak and far east. Will be hard to get any developing storm into the Caribbean with the current pattern. Waves would track east, but likely with little or no convection. Could also see something develop off a front NE or E of Bermuda.

Instability across the MDR is quite low, similar to what we typically see in March or April. Quite an amazing pattern as we approach peak season. My coworker was arguing for only 10 named storms this year, but I only lowered our numbers to 18/8/4. Might be hard to reach 18 named storms, though. I figure 4-6 in September and maybe 3-4 in October. That's 15. Could see one or two in November. Let's hope they all stay out to sea.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

Once again that chart is extremely outdated and has been proven to be false and/or faulty since 2017. Also the notion of a weak Bermuda high flies in the face of what’s been observed so far, with the opposite actually.

[WaveBreaking]

06z GEFS: more of the same.

[Stratton23]

I think i see what the ICON and some of the ensembles are picking up on in the NW gulf, looks to be some very healthy convection firing just north of the yucatan associated with an upper low, some guidance has that trying to spin up, just worth keeping a casual eye on as it generally drifts NW over the next 2-3 days

[tolakram]

I think we may have 1-2 named storms before Sept. 10th, but that's only 6-7 named storms at the midway point. ICON develops a frontal low off the TX coast next Tue-Wed. It has lows in the 60s and highs in the low 80s across Houston. Other models have mid 70s for lows to low to mid 90s for highs. I think it's unlikely a cold front will move into the Gulf next week.

GFS & Euro are developing something in the subtropical Atlantic that's now over Africa. Bermuda high is very weak and far east. Will be hard to get any developing storm into the Caribbean with the current pattern. Waves would track east, but likely with little or no convection. Could also see something develop off a front NE or E of Bermuda.

Instability across the MDR is quite low, similar to what we typically see in March or April. Quite an amazing pattern as we approach peak season. My coworker was arguing for only 10 named storms this year, but I only lowered our numbers to 18/8/4. Might be hard to reach 18 named storms, though. I figure 4-6 in September and maybe 3-4 in October. That's 15. Could see one or two in November. Let's hope they all stay out to sea.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

Once again that chart is extremely outdated and has been proven to be false and/or faulty since 2017. Also the notion of a weak Bermuda high flies in the face of what’s been observed so far, with the opposite actually.

The source for that was a single tweet, so unfortunately without confirmation we can't really say it's faulty. Has there been anything else written on it that did not source that tweet?

[MarioProtVI]

I think we may have 1-2 named storms before Sept. 10th, but that's only 6-7 named storms at the midway point. ICON develops a frontal low off the TX coast next Tue-Wed. It has lows in the 60s and highs in the low 80s across Houston. Other models have mid 70s for lows to low to mid 90s for highs. I think it's unlikely a cold front will move into the Gulf next week.

GFS & Euro are developing something in the subtropical Atlantic that's now over Africa. Bermuda high is very weak and far east. Will be hard to get any developing storm into the Caribbean with the current pattern. Waves would track east, but likely with little or no convection. Could also see something develop off a front NE or E of Bermuda.

Instability across the MDR is quite low, similar to what we typically see in March or April. Quite an amazing pattern as we approach peak season. My coworker was arguing for only 10 named storms this year, but I only lowered our numbers to 18/8/4. Might be hard to reach 18 named storms, though. I figure 4-6 in September and maybe 3-4 in October. That's 15. Could see one or two in November. Let's hope they all stay out to sea.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

Once again that chart is extremely outdated and has been proven to be false and/or faulty since 2017. Also the notion of a weak Bermuda high flies in the face of what’s been observed so far, with the opposite actually.

The source for that was a single tweet, so unfortunately without confirmation we can't really say it's faulty. Has there been anything else written on it that did not source that tweet?

Regarding the chart, I think there was another tweet about it but I forgot where it was, and it’s also based on reasoning as well. 2017’s hyperactive MDR and the following years after (more notably 2019 to 2021) showed that the chart was overblown given we had several hurricanes and major hurricanes form within that region, which people were claiming right up until Irma former that it was always hostile for such development since 2011 (which was where people began pegging the issues the MDR had).

[MarioProtVI]

12z GEFS: more of the same except for more gulf activity.

https://i.imgur.com/4WEQb2C.png

Yesterday’s run

[Teban54]

I think we may have 1-2 named storms before Sept. 10th, but that's only 6-7 named storms at the midway point. ICON develops a frontal low off the TX coast next Tue-Wed. It has lows in the 60s and highs in the low 80s across Houston. Other models have mid 70s for lows to low to mid 90s for highs. I think it's unlikely a cold front will move into the Gulf next week.

GFS & Euro are developing something in the subtropical Atlantic that's now over Africa. Bermuda high is very weak and far east. Will be hard to get any developing storm into the Caribbean with the current pattern. Waves would track east, but likely with little or no convection. Could also see something develop off a front NE or E of Bermuda.

Instability across the MDR is quite low, similar to what we typically see in March or April. Quite an amazing pattern as we approach peak season. My coworker was arguing for only 10 named storms this year, but I only lowered our numbers to 18/8/4. Might be hard to reach 18 named storms, though. I figure 4-6 in September and maybe 3-4 in October. That's 15. Could see one or two in November. Let's hope they all stay out to sea.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

Once again that chart is extremely outdated and has been proven to be false and/or faulty since 2017. Also the notion of a weak Bermuda high flies in the face of what’s been observed so far, with the opposite actually.

The source for that was a single tweet, so unfortunately without confirmation we can't really say it's faulty. Has there been anything else written on it that did not source that tweet?

A few days ago, I had extracted the THDV plots for 2013-2022 from Wayback Machine (missing 2023) and compared them to 2024. I don't have a nice graphic for it right now (I can export it upon request), but here are my impressions:

1. Every year since 2013 had "below-average" vertical instability on all these charts, during the entire year. This seems to imply that the climo line is bogus (or at least outdated because of #2.)
2. There's a clear downtrend over the time period: From 2013 to 2022, the chart typically indicates less instability than the year before, regardless of actual activity. (Yes, that means the chart thinks 2017 was more stable than 2013.)
3. The chart does seem to show 2024 having lower instability than all other years in my 10-year period. However, it's not clear how much of this is due to #2, vs. some conditions that are unique to this year.

Also, this page (a newer, experimental product for TC genesis that seems to use the same charts as wxman57's link) explicitly says "we have discovered a problem with the Vertical Instability field and are removing its images and plots until the issue is resolved". While it is an experimental product, I suspect that it's one of the few places where people are still actively monitoring the products.

[WaveBreaking]

12z GEFS: more of the same except for more gulf activity.

https://i.imgur.com/4WEQb2C.png

Yesterday’s run

Oops. Fixed it.

[Jr0d]

I am willing to bet that by Labor Day weekend(August 31st) that somewhere in the CONUS will be either in an orange potential development cone or in the cone of uncertainty from a classified system.

If I am wrong I will give Storm2k $10...if anyone takes me up on the bet and I am right, they will donate $10...

Any takers?

Accepted, s2k wins either way and im good with that.

60 hours to go. Looking likely I will be making the donation..though I do think the area in the Gulf may surprise us in the next 48 hours.

[wxman57]

So I have a question. Let’s just say no storms develop between now and 9/10 and we get only a few after that. Did the Hurricane forecasters flat out miss the environmental conditions and have egg on their face or is this something that was a complete curveball that no one could have predicted? I’m just trying to wrap my head around all this doom and gloom forecasts from June surrounding the upcoming season and now we’re talking about “potentially” a relatively quiet year.

Also wanted to say thanks for all you do. I always enjoy your posts on here especially when things get busy.

I think that would demonstrate that there is more to forecasting seasonal activity than just 3-4 parameters. I think the big issue now is how stable the MDR remains. Yeah, the water is very warm, but warm water alone won't make a hurricane develop in a stable atmosphere. I was talking with Klotzbach earlier this month after he raised his number of named storms to 25. I told him I was expecting to see a decrease. He touted the very warm water and predicted low wind shear in the MDR, along with the expected La Nina. I argued that no matter what the wind shear charts were showing, something looked "off" in the tropics. We should be seeing 3-4 strong tropical waves between the Gulf and Africa, but all we get is convectionless waves that have little or no chance of developing. That dry, sinking air was not predicted. I told him I was lowering our predicted named storms to 18, and I was concerned that may even be too high. He's still hoping his forecast won't bust, but I've accepted the bust and am being realistic.

With every client presentation I made in the spring and summer about the outlook, I told them I'd be very happy if the forecast was a bust. We have a lot to learn about predicting activity months in advance, when the models still struggle with predicting upper air flow more than a week out. I'll be happy if we reach 17/8/4, which are my numbers in the office hurricane pool. Of course, I'd also be happy with fewer named storms. The only downside is that I'll use the last of my 16 comp days this Friday.

As for current model runs, I see the ICON keeps pushing a cold front to the NW Gulf and develops a low on it next Tue-Wed. Seems unrealistic, to me. Models were focusing on a disturbance in the Tropical Atlantic developing near the NE Caribbean next Tuesday, but they're backing off on that now. Current focus seems to be something over central Africa that takes a north turn well east of the Caribbean. Bermuda high is VERY weak and far northeast now. Good for the Caribbean and the U.S. if it stays there.

[TampaWxLurker]

Reminds me of something my grandma used to say.

Just because you put flour, butter, eggs and suger in an oven, it doesn't mean you're getting a cake.

[N2FSU]

12z Canadian:






Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MGC]

I forecasted 17 named systems in the S2K poll this year. I'm having my doubts that many storms develop this year. All the hype over SST anomalies was and is greatly exaggerated as the Atlantic basin both during and outside of hurricane season are warm enough to support a tropical cyclone. Hot water only makes hurricanes more intense and that is only one ingredient of the pie. Still a good bit of dry air and shear in the basin. Let see how this next wave coming off the coast of Africa fares in the coming days......MGC

[LarryWx]

So I have a question. Let’s just say no storms develop between now and 9/10 and we get only a few after that. Did the Hurricane forecasters flat out miss the environmental conditions and have egg on their face or is this something that was a complete curveball that no one could have predicted? I’m just trying to wrap my head around all this doom and gloom forecasts from June surrounding the upcoming season and now we’re talking about “potentially” a relatively quiet year.

Also wanted to say thanks for all you do. I always enjoy your posts on here especially when things get busy.

I was talking with Klotzbach earlier this month after he raised his number of named storms to 25. I told him I was expecting to see a decrease. He touted the very warm water and predicted low wind shear in the MDR, along with the expected La Niña.

1. Just to clarify for the record, CSU raised their # of NS to 25 in July rather August. They actually went back down to 23 in Aug.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast ... elease.pdf

2. The 12 GEFS has a good number of members developing the AEW following the current lemon. Most of them then recurve safely well out.

[TomballEd]

6Z Euro ensembles at hour 144 had a decent enough signal for 3 areas, including the 20% AOI and the above mentioned GOMEX system. I'm dubious of the W. Gulf system, but it exists across model families, although the 12Z GEFS is only mildly enthusiastic. Anything in the Gulf is closest to home, so I watch, but I still think 20% has a better chance of developing. It has only very weak GFS ensembles support and I don't see the usual sign of almost a bowling ball of PW crossing on the CIMSS TPW-Mimic loop.

[Stormlover70]

12z Canadian:

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240828/5496e6b1914f05377e5ecef2c963d29c.jpg

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240828/2536734ef0ef52e020735abd036c7751.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

East coast raker. Unless Bremuda high builds west

[Blown Away]

I forecasted 17 named systems in the S2K poll this year. I'm having my doubts that many storms develop this year. All the hype over SST anomalies was and is greatly exaggerated as the Atlantic basin both during and outside of hurricane season are warm enough to support a tropical cyclone. Hot water only makes hurricanes more intense and that is only one ingredient of the pie. Still a good bit of dry air and shear in the basin. Let see how this next wave coming off the coast of Africa fares in the coming days......MGC

That was a good call based on what we were seeing... I fell into the hyperactive trap (J/K I know it's early) but thought of going lower just because it just seems like every year is above average these days and there needs to be a balance?? I think...

[Javlin]

That dry, sinking air was not predicted. I told him I was lowering our predicted named storms to 18, and I was concerned that may even be too high. He's still hoping his forecast won't bust, but I've accepted the bust and am being realistic.

That WX57is all I have seen for the last 3/4 weeks it goes from Sahara of N.Africa west to 60'W(55'W last week) and down to 15'N(20'N) it has gotten larger in the last 7/10 days even looks like pockets of SAL are still inbedded and with that much dry sir............

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

[TomballEd]

12Z EPS still enthusiastic about the 7 day 20%, with several affecting between the Central Gulf, around Florida and even shows some close calls East Coast. Support for the near term Gulf system seems to be dwindling a bit, but not gone. The number of storms won't match the preseason, but odds still seem to favor named storm formation sometime in the next two weeks, probably in the next 10 days.