Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[Stratton23]

And just like that the 12z models are why the NHC never changed their percentage, back with development again

[toad strangler]

And just like that the 12z models are why the NHC never changed their percentage, back with development again

12z GFS OP shows disorganized vorticity in the Greater Antilles at 10 days
12z CMC OP shows quite the hurricane off the far SE US Coast

The seedling does look like it's from the NHC lemon

[WeatherBoy2000]

And just like that the 12z models are why the NHC never changed their percentage, back with development again

The 06z eps is decidedly more bullish compared to the midnight run in the short term as well.

[Category5Kaiju]

Yeah, I think it was wise for the NHC to keep the lemon. I really have a feeling that some of these models were struggling with the monsoonal trough, but the initial “aha” that, especially the Euro ensembles, had may have indeed been a true positive. As in, they may have correctly identified that something may indeed be trying to form out of this AOI in the first place

[cycloneye]

2 PM.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of disorganized showers over the central Tropical Atlantic
is associated with a tropical wave. Some slow development of this
system is possible this weekend into early next week while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[LarryWx]

12Z GEFS: I can see 6 H from this, with 3 of them hitting or threatening the NE Caribbean.

[AutoPenalti]

12Z GEFS: I can see 6 H from this, with 3 of them hitting or threatening the NE Caribbean.

Not sure where you're looking but the latest noodles from weathernerds site has only TD's.

[LarryWx]

12Z GEFS: I can see 6 H from this, with 3 of them hitting or threatening the NE Caribbean.

Not sure where you're looking but the latest noodles from weathernerds site has only TD's.
https://i.postimg.cc/52Pj1khq/gefs-2024-08-28-12-Z-174-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

The H are further out than the 174 hour map you’re showing.
Edit: But actually I see at least 2 H by 174 at TT.

[SFLcane]

Hmm.. 20% is on the generous side not much on the gfs or the ecmwf this afternoon. Cmc well thats the cmc lol.

[Stratton23]

I think 20% is respectable

[Spacecoast]

12Z GEFS: I can see 6 H from this, with 3 of them hitting or threatening the NE Caribbean.

Not sure where you're looking but the latest noodles from weathernerds site has only TD's.
https://i.postimg.cc/52Pj1khq/gefs-2024-08-28-12-Z-174-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

The H are further out than the 174 hour map you’re showing.
Edit: But actually I see at least 2 H by 174 at TT.

It's long been a mystery to me why there is such discrepancy between TT and weathernerds wrt to Ensemble member MSLP mb readings.
TT consistently has lower numbers than weathernerds.
Any explanation would be appreciated...

[LarryWx]

Hmm.. 20% is on the generous side not much on the gfs or the ecmwf this afternoon. Cmc well thats the cmc lol.

I don’t think 20% is really on the generous side as it is still only in the slight chance category. Besides the CMC, I see 6H out of 31 12Z GEFS members. The 12Z ICON is very weak but it does still have a sfc low. Uk has no TC.
Yeah the Euro has little but it still has a very weak low in the W Carib from this at 240. I could tell by following H7 vorticity maps on TT. Of course if it were to wait that long to develop, it would be after the 7 day TWO period.

[TomballEd]

Decent signal of 6Z Euro ensembles for the AOI,

[Stratton23]

dont like how the EPS shows more members developing in the western caribbean, that could put the gulf in play

[SFLcane]

Decent signal of 6Z Euro ensembles for the AOI,

12z EPS is in the gulf of mexico and in the bahamas.

[LarryWx]

Decent signal of 6Z Euro ensembles for the AOI,

12z EPS is in the gulf of mexico and in the bahamas.

Fwiw the 12Z Euro Control goes from the W Caribbean into the NC Gulf as a strengthening recurving TS.

[LarryWx]

Decent signal of 6Z Euro ensembles for the AOI,

12z EPS is in the gulf of mexico and in the bahamas.

The EPS suggests to me fwiw an increased threat to the U.S. Gulf coast from the lemon vs earlier runs.

[SFLcane]

Decent signal of 6Z Euro ensembles for the AOI,

12z EPS is in the gulf of mexico and in the bahamas.

The EPS suggests to me fwiw an increased threat to the U.S. Gulf coast from the lemon vs earlier runs.

Can you post the mslp maps not home lol.

[SFLcane]

Wave looks like poop at the moment we shall see what happens overnight.

[LarryWx]

12z EPS is in the gulf of mexico and in the bahamas.

The EPS suggests to me fwiw an increased threat to the U.S. Gulf coast from the lemon vs earlier runs.

Can you post the mslp maps not home lol.

I can’t as it is from a paid site. I thought you were looking at them, yourself, per your post.