Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 90L)

[Teban54]

The western Gulf has been convectively active since yesterday, and remains so this morning while being a bit stronger (could be due to DMAX). Shear is visibly strong that inhibits development for now, but there's nevertheless been a small build-up of vorticity in that region.

To me, it seems like the current convective build-up is outperforming GFS expectations from the 6z run (as seen from the run's IR Satellite forecasts). Both GFS and ECMWF also show shear in this region dropping in the next 2 days and remaining low for about a week. Could be something to watch.

[Stratton23]

Teban54 plus not a lot of dry air either, the western gulf is especially moist, definitely gotta watch this for a surprise spin up, sometimes the global models may muss something like this, the ICON continues to show a weak low forming

[LadyBug72]

Keeping an eye on this just because you never know when something may spin up.

[Stratton23]

Some of the short range mesoscale models are starting to show a surface low develop somewhere off the Texas coast, and moving very erratically as steering currents break down

[Nimbus]

Surface pressure at the 42002 buoy off Texas made a nice yoyo from 29.90 back up to 30 inches.
WXman57 once explained that shear alone can cause convection and once the shear lets up if there is no low surface pressure the skies will just clear again. Lowest surface pressure(I could find) currently is off Brownsville BZST2 which was recently 29.93 inches. Worth watching but I don't get too excited till the surface pressures drop below 29.88.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=CDT

[TomballEd]

Surface pressure at the 42002 buoy off Texas made a nice yoyo from 29.90 back up to 30 inches.
WXman57 once explained that shear alone can cause convection and once the shear lets up if there is no low surface pressure the skies will just clear again. Lowest surface pressure(I could find) currently is off Brownsville BZST2 which was recently 29.93 inches. Worth watching but I don't get too excited till the surface pressures drop below 29.88.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=CDT

Convection is waning now, but although model support is quite weak and there is no low level vorticity, there is some mid-level vorticity. PW from MIMIC-TPW product is quite high. The GFS has initialized the mid level vorticity fairly well, but doesn't develop the disturbed area. If storms don't regenerate, it will never work its way down to the surface. I'm pretty sure this won't develop, (the very hostile shear does lessen up the mid level vort is onshore before anything happens. But I always look for things near my back yard. A TD or TS as a few of the Euro ensembles show would be welcome. The recent 'rainy' spell is doing a good job of avoiding me.

[Stratton23]

TomballEd even a weak low would be nice, however the steering currents near the texas coast completely collapse, so this Low will probably stall out or meander very slowly, I suspect models are under doing rainfall potential especially if the low doesnt move much as it nears the texas coast

[Stratton23]

I am becoming more concerned about a stall out of this system, the 00z NAM like the Icon develops a weak tropical low, and almost does a harvey like stall over the NW gulf, its not moving at all except for making a loop, steering completely breaks down

[Jr0d]

Convection is waning tonight but I do believe this area is worth watching. The meso models want to develop a low on the coast or over land, obviously the major inhibiting factor. If a low does develop a little further south and east than they are currently showing, I do think we could a depression or storm quickly spin up.

Didn't we have a storm develop last season that had almost no model support?(the NHC was on it)

[Stratton23]

JroD notice the very slow movement fhat the mesocale models have too, this is reminding me somewhat of imelda from 2019, globals didnt see it coming but the mesocales got it, worth watching as some of the runs are putting out some very impressive rainfall over the gulf- very close to the texas coast

[Teban54]

Deep convection has returned, possibly thanks to DMAX. The northern blobs also align with mid-level vorticity. However, I don't know if it will stay offshore for much longer.

[tropicwatch]

Pressures are approximately ranging from 1013mb - 1016mb in the area of convection. Will have to monitor for any signs of a low forming.

[underthwx]

The western Gulf has been convectively active since yesterday, and remains so this morning while being a bit stronger (could be due to DMAX). Shear is visibly strong that inhibits development for now, but there's nevertheless been a small build-up of vorticity in that region.

To me, it seems like the current convective build-up is outperforming GFS expectations from the 6z run (as seen from the run's IR Satellite forecasts). Both GFS and ECMWF also show shear in this region dropping in the next 2 days and remaining low for about a week. Could be something to watch.

https://i.postimg.cc/HnwXHYHL/goes16-ir-gom.gif

https://i.postimg.cc/8kMhLHWV/image.png

Yeah Teban....I looked at satellite of the gulf....it caught my eye....do you think this will become an NHC area of interest?...

[Teban54]

The western Gulf has been convectively active since yesterday, and remains so this morning while being a bit stronger (could be due to DMAX). Shear is visibly strong that inhibits development for now, but there's nevertheless been a small build-up of vorticity in that region.

To me, it seems like the current convective build-up is outperforming GFS expectations from the 6z run (as seen from the run's IR Satellite forecasts). Both GFS and ECMWF also show shear in this region dropping in the next 2 days and remaining low for about a week. Could be something to watch.

https://i.postimg.cc/HnwXHYHL/goes16-ir-gom.gif

https://i.postimg.cc/8kMhLHWV/image.png

Yeah Teban....I looked at satellite of the gulf....it caught my eye....do you think this will become an NHC area of interest?...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

I probably don't know any more than you do, but the system currently has little to no model support. If there are signs of development, we'll need to catch up in real time, and even that may be unlikely as most models seem to send the vorticity inland soon. In the event that it develops, it will probably be akin to Imelda 2019 in terms of genesis (not impact), while having a much shorter notice from the NHC. (Imelda at least got a lemon for 3 days, but jumped from 30/30 to a named storm just hours before it made landfall and weakened to a TD.)

I still think it's unlikely to do much, but we'll see.

[crimi481]

Steering currents weak in Gulf

[NDG]

I see some nice vorticity trying to get going east of Brownsville with surface winds report supporting it. Pressures slightly down from 24 hrs ago. Need to watch this area despite no really global model support for development but is in an area that in the past models have struggled with.

[ChrisH-UK]

The global scale models don't show much however the meso scale models show it quite clearly at the 500nnb vorticity but nothing on the surface to match. Looks like this a mid/upper layer. Looks like a windy few days over Houston.

[Stratton23]

Could be very wet, the mesocales shows a meandering almost loop like motion near the NW gulf coast, will need to watch where it meanders as someone could easily see a foot+ out of this, slow moving lows are big trouble

[Stratton23]

18z NAM develops a TS that just sits and stalls in the NW gulf before making a WSW motion toward texas

[Nimbus]

Surface pressure back down to 29.86 at BZST2.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=BZST2

The pressure yoyo usually takes days but if it keeps stopping at 86 I'll stay calm.