2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Teban54]

12z GFS, 12z Euro and 18z GFS all at least make an attempt to spin up the eastern MDR system, with 18z GFS being the most organized, but still weak and short-lived. There's still healthy ensemble support, with a few members from each model do show a formidable system (though they're probably just outliers for now).

[Nimbus]

I am willing to bet that by Labor Day weekend(August 31st) that somewhere in the CONUS will be either in an orange potential development cone or in the cone of uncertainty from a classified system.

If I am wrong I will give Storm2k $10...if anyone takes me up on the bet and I am right, they will donate $10...

Any takers?

Accepted, s2k wins either way and im good with that.

60 hours to go. Looking likely I will be making the donation..though I do think the area in the Gulf may surprise us in the next 48 hours.

That is what I thought a week ago when the GFS ran with the trough split. Surface pressure is down around 1010 MB off Brownsville which looks like its under high pressure aloft. WXman57 said next trough to get down in the gulf may be delayed. NHC lemon threshold must be down near 1008 mb?

[Teban54]

12z GFS, 12z Euro and 18z GFS all at least make an attempt to spin up the eastern MDR system, with 18z GFS being the most organized, but still weak and short-lived. There's still healthy ensemble support, with a few members from each model do show a formidable system (though they're probably just outliers for now).

I'll start counting ensemble support for the Eastern Atlantic wave (exiting Africa within a handful days), just because.

This list counts all Eastern Atlantic lows on roughly 9/7. Some GEFS runs have over 100% of members developing, which suggests some members may see two lows at the same time (possibly from two different waves). At this lead time, it's impossible to distinguish the waves due to high variance, so I'm just counting all of them.

GEFS member low pressure counts (±2, out of 31):

• 18z 8/28: 35 (113%)
• 12z 8/28: 22 (71%)
• 6z 8/28: 23 (74%)
• 0z 8/28: 22 (71%)

EPS member low pressure counts (±3, out of 51):

• 18z 8/28 (out to 144 hrs only): 26 (51%)
• 12z 8/28: 37 (73%)
• 6z 8/28 (out to 144 hrs only): 22 (43%)
• 0z 8/28: 31 (61%)

Keep in mind these are just low pressure centers and some may not actually be TCs, especially on the 6z and 18z Euro runs. On the other hand, 6z and 18z Euro may have additional members develop beyond 144 hrs.

Based on the ensemble support and some operational model support (even if on-and-off or not very well organized), I wouldn't be surprised to see a lemon in the next day or two.

[Teban54]

This is not a serious post, but just for funsies:

Here's an insane EPS member from 12z. This is from the eastern Atlantic wave (not the 0/20 lemon), which starts off as a weak TS just like most other members. But then it gets into the dreaded WSW dive and intensifies along the way, hitting Montserrat in the process. It bombs out in the eastern Caribbean, finishing the run at 922 mb.

This will almost certainly not happen... But

[redingtonbeach]

12z Canadian:

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240828/5496e6b1914f05377e5ecef2c963d29c.jpg

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240828/2536734ef0ef52e020735abd036c7751.jpg

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Saw this. Ensembles are picking up a smaller wave too.

[Hammy]

GFS similarly shows development, but not quite as soon. Seems like we're getting a Bret scenario again, where the models dont really zero in on something for certain until a few days out

[Teban54]

0z GFS: (Full run below)

• 0/20 AOI: Develops in eastern Caribbean, Cat 1 hit on Haiti, takes the worst possible path (hugging Cuba's northern coastline) and gets shredded as the result. Of course, too early to speculate on track, but this is the first time it developed this system since 18z 8/26.
• Eastern Atlantic system: Develops and recurves near 40W similar to earlier runs, somehow plows through the TUTT (or perhaps ventilated by it?), gets to 963 mb in the subtropics.
• A third wave organizes in the eastern MDR beyond Day 11, becoming a TS by the end of the run.

0z CMC:

• 0/20 AOI: Develops in the western MDR, clips Haiti and Cuba, run ends with Cat 1 landfall on SE Florida.
• Eastern Atlantic system: Developing at the end of the run (240 hrs), but much further east than earlier runs on all global models, near CV islands.

0z ICON:

• 0/20 AOI: Develops in the western MDR, run ends as a hurricane south of DR (180 hrs), further south than GFS and CMC
• Eastern Atlantic system: Starts organizing in 3 days or so, continues to be the most aggressive of all global models.

[skyline385]

In addition to ICON, CMC and GFS all upticking for the 0z runs for our AOI, Euro came in pretty damn strong as well.

[Ubuntwo]

In addition to ICON, CMC and GFS all upticking for the 0z runs for our AOI, Euro came in pretty damn strong as well.

https://i.imgur.com/c4Uq7xs.png

We have a separate thread for this AOI

[skyline385]

In addition to ICON, CMC and GFS all upticking for the 0z runs for our AOI, Euro came in pretty damn strong as well.

https://i.imgur.com/c4Uq7xs.png

We have a separate thread for this AOI

oh right, had completely forgotten about that thread. Thanks!

[Hammy]

Is Tropical Tidbits down?

[cycloneye]

Is Tropical Tidbits down?

Yes, aparently it crashed after the 00z model runs.

[TomballEd]

Is Tropical Tidbits down?

Yes, aparently it crashed after the 00z model runs.

Can anyone post the Euro ensembles past 240 hours? I would be looking at TT for >240 hour EPS.

[USTropics]

Is Tropical Tidbits down?

Yes, aparently it crashed after the 00z model runs.

Can anyone post the Euro ensembles past 240 hours? I would be looking at TT for >240 hour EPS.

There are limited region extents on Pivotal, but here is the 00z ECMWF individual ensemble member MSLPs for the Caribbean/GOM for 72-360 hours:


https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2024082900&fh=0&r=caribbean&dpdt=&mc=

[skyline385]

Is Tropical Tidbits down?

Yes, aparently it crashed after the 00z model runs.

Can anyone post the Euro ensembles past 240 hours? I would be looking at TT for >240 hour EPS.

0z EPS and GEFS

[jlauderdal]

Yes, aparently it crashed after the 00z model runs.

Can anyone post the Euro ensembles past 240 hours? I would be looking at TT for >240 hour EPS.

0z EPS and GEFS

https://i.imgur.com/Bzrdmg2.png

https://i.imgur.com/ZENXGmH.png

Cycloneye in an ensemble sandwich.

[cycloneye]

Great news= Tropical Tidbits site is back!!!

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1829166789202510280




https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: has TD form at 162 hrs 100 miles ESE of Corpus Christi nearly stationary

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 27.0N 95.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2024 168 26.8N 95.6W 1007 28

[Stratton23]

LarryWx interesting, I dont have access to that model, but ive heard the UKMET does a pretty good job at sniffing out potential systems

[Stratton23]

Cycloneye i think its still down, because a lot of the data/ models are still stuck on 00z runs from last night, some are just starting now i think