ARB: ASNA - Post-Tropical

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91A INVEST 240827 1200 24.1N 69.9E IO 15 0

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WTIO21 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91A)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
060 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.9N 69.2E TO 24.4N 66.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 282345Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 23.9N 69.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
24.3N 70.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 69.1E, APPROXIMATELY 126 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF INDIA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING HIGH (20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW EQUATORWARD, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE,
AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 992 MB. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT 91A WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH A
WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
300300Z.//
NNNN

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IO, 02, 2024083000, , BEST, 0, 234N, 683E, 35, 990, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 85, 90, 70, 998, 130, 50, 0, 0, A, 0, , 0, 0, TWO, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, ioA12024 to io022024,

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FKIN20 VIDP 301135
TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20240830/0600Z
TC: ASNA
NR: 4
PSN: N2330 E06754
MOV: W03KT
INTST CHANGE: INTSF
C: 992HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 30/1200Z N2330 E06730
FCST MAX WIND +06HRS: 35 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 30/1800Z N2336 E06648
FCST MAX WIND +12HRS: 35 KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 31/0000Z N2342 E06554
FCST MAX WIND +18HRS: 40 KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 31/0600Z N2348 E06506
FCST MAX WIND +24HRS: 40 KT
RMK: NIL
NEXT MSG: 20240830/1500Z
TOO: 301604HRS IST