Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[Ivanhater]

Do we currently have a strong High Pressure therefore almost every model keep it going west?

There will be an escape hatch east of the US if this strengthens sooner. Best chance for a US landfall is delayed development until Jamaica

[ConvergenceZone]

Do we currently have a strong High Pressure therefore almost every model keep it going west?

There will be an escape hatch east of the US if this strengthens sooner. Best chance for a US landfall is delayed development until Jamaica

Odds are at this point that it probably won't get really strong before Jamaica, but there's always that outside chance. Florida and eastern gulf better keep an eye on this one.

[otowntiger]

Do we currently have a strong High Pressure therefore almost every model keep it going west?

https://i.postimg.cc/Wbgpnr5N/nnn.jpg

Unless I’m reading that map incorrectly it would seem to me that is a set up to make it plow right into CA/Mex, right?

[Ivanhater]

Do we currently have a strong High Pressure therefore almost every model keep it going west?

https://i.postimg.cc/Wbgpnr5N/nnn.jpg

Unless I’m reading that map incorrectly it would seem to me that is a set up to make it plow right into CA/Mex, right?

There is a trough coming that will break down the ridge.

[Ubuntwo]

So far, the 12z GFS appears to string out the wave envelope and does not yet have a compact vort coming together unlike the 0z/6z.

[LAF92]

https://i.postimg.cc/Wbgpnr5N/nnn.jpg

Unless I’m reading that map incorrectly it would seem to me that is a set up to make it plow right into CA/Mex, right?

There is a trough coming that will break down the ridge.

Not saying it’s impossible but I don’t like the having to rely on a cold front in September to save the the US

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: still no TC from this through 180 hrs

[Ivanhater]

12Z GFS drops it

[MarioProtVI]

So far, the 12z GFS appears to string out the wave envelope and does not yet have a compact vort coming together unlike the 0z/6z.

GFS bias in full effect (windshield wiper + bias to string out vorticity repeatedly)

[ConvergenceZone]

12Z GFS drops it

lol classic GFS

[Ubuntwo]

So far, the 12z GFS appears to string out the wave envelope and does not yet have a compact vort coming together unlike the 0z/6z.

GFS bias in full effect (windshield wiper + bias to string out vorticity repeatedly)

Yep, these are common bias points. But always have to consider the strung out option as it's a common fail mode for these ITCZ rollup scenarios. I imagine this is why only about half of GEFS members developed even last night while EPS was closer to 3/4.

[aspen]

12z CMC is developing a compact vort by 72hrs out.

12z ICON has an intensifying low-end hurricane south of PR by the end of the run. Looks like another Caribbean Cruiser.

[Cpv17]

12Z GFS drops it

That’s actually bad because it could go further west then.

[cheezyWXguy]

If this thing does end up developing, it’s gonna be another W to chalk up for the icon. From what I can tell it has been the most consistent with showing development.

[SouthFLTropics]

So ICON still has it and the GFS can't make up its mind and is doing GFS things. So far, looks like the CMC is still developing it as well. Seeing the ensembles as well as this afternoon's Euro operational will be interesting.

[Teban54]

So ICON still has it and the GFS can't make up its mind and is doing GFS things. So far, looks like the CMC is still developing it as well. Seeing the ensembles as well as this afternoon's Euro operational will be interesting.

FWIW, 12z GEFS is also much less active, but that shouldn't be surprising given the operational. There may also be a logical way to explain both that and the fact that GEFS wasn't more active than EPS last night: If the operational GFS is prone to making the waves more strung out than other models do, the same can be expected of GEFS. I'm not sure if this tells us anything one way or another... Better wait for the Euro runs and 18z.

Meanwhile, CMC's Lesser Antilles landfall is more organized and slightly stronger (by 1mb) than the last run.

[LarryWx]

So ICON still has it and the GFS can't make up its mind and is doing GFS things. So far, looks like the CMC is still developing it as well. Seeing the ensembles as well as this afternoon's Euro operational will be interesting.

FWIW, 12z GEFS is also much less active, but that shouldn't be surprising given the operational. There may also be a logical way to explain both that and the fact that GEFS wasn't more active than EPS last night: If the operational GFS is prone to making the waves more strung out than other models do, the same can be expected of GEFS. I'm not sure if this tells us anything one way or another... Better wait for the Euro runs and 18z.

Meanwhile, CMC's Lesser Antilles landfall is more organized and slightly stronger (by 1mb) than the last run.

12Z GEFS: weakest run since at least yesterday’s 12Z

[wxman57]

wxman57 whats your take on a 64 Cleo analog for this AOI?

Potential track, should it develop, is similar to a number of storms. I like the 12Z GFS solution - no development at all anywhere through 384 hrs.

[Stratton23]

CMC 12z says hold your horses GFS, Hurricane approaching jamaics

[Ubuntwo]

The reasoning behind GFS' shift is subtle, but we'll know which solution is right within ~36 hours. There are two primary lobes with this system - one near 40W and the other near 50W. The western area has more low-level vorticity, and the eastern mid level. The most likely genesis pathway is low-level vorticity developing in basically a straight line between the two (elongating the western area almost beyond recognition), the mid-level circulation drilling down and forming a low-level vortmax on the eastern edge of this strip of vorticity, and then sliding west and 'rolling' the linear strip of vorticity into a concentrated system. The GFS does drill the eastern MLC down to sfc, but it does not first form a 'bridge' of vorticity between the two lobes. It instead has that western side concentrating - meaning there's two low-level vorts. The east side still has the mid-level rotation, so the differences in steering flow cause the eastern side to slide over the western side with competition instead of bundling.

TLDR: Development (as modeled) will require convection over the next two days to either (1) remain focused to the east, and/or (2) linearly bridge the two lobes. If this is going to start bundling vorticity, it's gonna happen pretty damn soon.