Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[cycloneye]

Development cone more west.

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the
central tropical Atlantic remain disorganized. Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next few days, and a tropical
depression could form some time next week while it moves westward,
reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday and continuing across the
Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter part of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Ubuntwo]

6z Euro is back to a quicker spinup, with a depression in the Eastern Caribbean by hour 90. 55% of 6z ensemble members have a bonafide TC by day 7. Still near a coin flip we don’t see much. Why did the models abruptly back off at 0z? Take a look at how far west convection is firing. Strong low level vorticity extends a couple degrees further west of earlier model expectations. We will need to see that convection slide towards the east for shorter term development.

[SFLcane]

Larry this seems to be the most active I have seen the eps around Florida if I am not mistaken. Thankfully it appears to be a ghost signal and might bust.

[LarryWx]

10 (20%) of 6Z EPS members are 990 mb or lower in the Caribbean at 144 hrs! That compares to only 6 on the active 0Z at 150 and 10 (20%) on yesterday’s 12Z at 162.

[Stormlover70]

Development cone more west.

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the
central tropical Atlantic remain disorganized. Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next few days, and a tropical
depression could form some time next week while it moves westward,
reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday and continuing across the
Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter part of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/QglhKRe.png

better news for conus if this verified

[SFLcane]

Development cone more west.

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the
central tropical Atlantic remain disorganized. Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next few days, and a tropical
depression could form some time next week while it moves westward,
reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday and continuing across the
Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter part of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/QglhKRe.png

better news for conus if this verified

Not a cone or track just shows were potential development
“ could” occur.

[TomballEd]

Development cone more west.

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the
central tropical Atlantic remain disorganized. Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next few days, and a tropical
depression could form some time next week while it moves westward,
reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday and continuing across the
Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter part of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/QglhKRe.png

better news for conus if this verified

Not a cone or track just shows were potential development
“ could” occur.

Indeed, EPS suggest storms that form on the E end of the Orange likely hook N through the Greater Antilles, near the middle, maybe across Cuba to either side of Florida, and development is in the W end of that cone is Central America or Gulf bound. The cone shows where an undeveloped wave, not feeling deep steering, would track. Developed systems would feel the ECUSA trough and the break in the ridge unless they develop far enough W (and S) to evade that trough. 6 Z GFS storm is 1005 mb wave passing S of Jamaica,and thus gets far enough W before the recurve to threaten the Central Gulf Coast. image sites blocked at work, so using NOAA NCEP maps for image.

[Bigtenfan]

Larry this seems to be the most active I have seen the eps around Florida if I am not mistaken. Thankfully it appears to be a ghost signal and might bust.

https://i.postimg.cc/MZhH2Lnd/IMG-9342.jpg

As a resident of Boca Raton I hope that is a false signal as well as it appears to be in conflict with most other guidance.

Even so, looking at the EPS wind speed chart on Weather.us i saw only 2 out of the 51 EPS members bring hurricane force winds to S FL, one on Sept 8 and one on Sept 10 and those were gusts not sustained winds. I saw only 1 with sustained Hurricane force winds and that was on the 8th.

I am relatively new at this but I do like those odds.

[cycloneye]

Zoom to 45W -47W where I can see some consolidation. We need ASCAT.

[cheezyWXguy]

Trying to figure out if the reduction in chances is due to decreased likelihood of development at all, or a higher likelihood that development would occur (should it occur) beyond the 7 day period. Aside from the early-bird icon, I don’t recall much support for formation until this thing is nearing Jamaica. GFS, GEFS, and CMC have been inconsistent for a while now, so I don’t see much of a notable decrease in model support compared to yesterday.

[jlauderdal]

Larry this seems to be the most active I have seen the eps around Florida if I am not mistaken. Thankfully it appears to be a ghost signal and might bust.

https://i.postimg.cc/MZhH2Lnd/IMG-9342.jpg

As a resident of Boca Raton I hope that is a false signal as well as it appears to be in conflict with most other guidance.

Even so, looking at the EPS wind speed chart on Weather.us i saw only 2 out of the 51 EPS members bring hurricane force winds to S FL, one on Sept 8 and one on Sept 10 and those were gusts not sustained winds. I saw only 1 with sustained Hurricane force winds and that was on the 8th.

I am relatively new at this but I do like those odds.

The weaker it is, the farther west it goes and nhc is trending down, enjoy the weekend.

[Stratton23]

unfortunately the farther west it goes while remainer weak may not be a good thing at all, especially for the gulf coast

[cajungal]

unfortunately the farther west it goes while remainer weak may not be a good thing at all, especially for the gulf coast

Unless Mexico or Central America. Although I don’t wish it on anyone

[Stratton23]

I dont either, but if it waits to develop in the western caribbean, that could be a problem for someone, the 06z EPS through 144 hours is still very active

[cycloneye]

Some hints of turning there around 47W.

[wxman57]

Trying to figure out if the reduction in chances is due to decreased likelihood of development at all, or a higher likelihood that development would occur (should it occur) beyond the 7 day period. Aside from the early-bird icon, I don’t recall much support for formation until this thing is nearing Jamaica. GFS, GEFS, and CMC have been inconsistent for a while now, so I don’t see much of a notable decrease in model support compared to yesterday.

I think the reduced development chances are the result of less model support for development and its current poor state of organization. It looks like just a standard tropical wave, something that has been rare this year - a wave that actually has convection. Models now delay development until possibly beyond 7 days. Meanwhile, I'm enjoying a long holiday weekend with no worries of development.

[toad strangler]

Some hints of turning there around 47W.
]

Yep, and Andy Hazelton points out the uncertainty if there is competing spots within the overall disturbance.

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1829525425652994336

[hipshot]

Development cone more west.

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the
central tropical Atlantic remain disorganized. Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next few days, and a tropical
depression could form some time next week while it moves westward,
reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday and continuing across the
Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter part of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/QglhKRe.png

better news for conus if this verified

Not a cone or track just shows were potential development
“ could” occur.

So, the cross hatched area on the map is the "possible" locations where it could develop and the "x" is where the AOI is currently located.
Is that a correct assumption?

thks

[Cpv17]

[Xpost][/Xpost]

better news for conus if this verified

Not a cone or track just shows were potential development
“ could” occur.

So, the cross hatched area on the map is the "possible" locations where it could develop and the "x" is where the AOI is currently located.
Is that a correct assumption?

thks

Yes.

[chris_fit]

12Z ICON coming in.....