Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 90L)

[LarryWx]

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A surface trough of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms along and just offshore the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana. This system is expected to meander near the coast
through much of next week, and some slow development is possible if
it remains offshore. Regardless of development, heavy rains could
cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal Louisiana and
the upper Texas coast during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/kl5ngnx.png

The recent blowup in convection likely contributed to the newly highlighted lemon:

https://i.postimg.cc/G3ypV6zN/goes16-ir-gom.gif

This could be one of those cases when the NHC is behind when they then up the %s quickly with each TWO and before you know it is a cherry. But it obviously still remains to be seen if this is going to develop. It wouldn’t surprise me if it did. They’re probably too low with 10%/20%.

[HurricaneBrain]

Agreed. I'm far from a conspiracy theorist but I do believe what you're describing to be true. There's never been an instance I can recall where they've jumped straight into code orange on a feature. I think they're playing catch up (as I alluded to this morning) and this will be labeled orange soon. I stick with my personal 40% chance of TD development.

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A surface trough of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms along and just offshore the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana. This system is expected to meander near the coast
through much of next week, and some slow development is possible if
it remains offshore. Regardless of development, heavy rains could
cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal Louisiana and
the upper Texas coast during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/kl5ngnx.png

The recent blowup in convection likely contributed to the newly highlighted lemon:

https://i.postimg.cc/G3ypV6zN/goes16-ir-gom.gif

This could be one of those cases when the NHC is behind when they then up the %s quickly with each TWO and before you know it is a cherry. But it obviously still remains to be seen if this is going to develop. It wouldn’t surprise me if it did. They’re probably too low with 10%/20%.

[Frank P]

Station BZST2 - 8779749 - SPI Brazos Santiago, TX now at 29.88
I just checked the buoys in the area in the past hour and found nothing significant, did see some SE and N and NW winds off the coastline but no west winds were found. Doesn't mean there not out there, I just could find them. Lowest buoy pressure was 29.92 Some land stations on the south TX coastline were 29.91
Station 42002 NDBC
Location: 26.055N 93.646W
Date: Fri, 30 Aug 2024 18:30:00 UTC
Winds: S (170°) at 3.9 kt gusting to 3.9 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.92 in
Air Temperature: 86.5 F
Water Temperature: 87.3 F

[Stratton23]

We will need to watch the rainfall and exactly where the low meanders / stalls or tracks, models dont agree on that, but with a low becoming stuck in place for probably the next 7-8 days, rainfall potential with this will be worth watching extremely closely

[Teban54]

Do people think this will steal the name Francine?

[Stratton23]

Teban54 wouldn’t be shocked if it does lol, looks like potential “ francine “ could be spending a lot of quality texas with texas and louisiana lol

[Nimbus]

Station BZST2 - 8779749 - SPI Brazos Santiago, TX now at 29.88
I just checked the buoys in the area in the past hour and found nothing significant, did see some SE and N and NW winds off the coastline but no west winds were found. Doesn't mean there not out there, I just could find them. Lowest buoy pressure was 29.92 Some land stations on the south TX coastline were 29.91
Station 42002 NDBC
Location: 26.055N 93.646W
Date: Fri, 30 Aug 2024 18:30:00 UTC
Winds: S (170°) at 3.9 kt gusting to 3.9 kt

Atmospheric Pressure: 29.92 in
Air Temperature: 86.5 F
Water Temperature: 87.3 F

The surface pressures YOYO, lowest pressure yesterday was around 6PM 29.82 at the BZST2 buoy.
Surface pressures are on their way back down but may have reached a floor at this buoy since the convection is now further NE.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=CDT

[LarryWx]

Do people think this will steal the name Francine?

Anything’s possible. No potential future storm ever owns the right to any name, regardless.

The 12Z JMA shows increased H85/7 vorticity that’s barely onshore the next few days that was much weaker on the prior runs. There’s still no LLC but it is closer to one. Bears watching.

[AnnularCane]

Do people think this will steal the name Francine?

Well, none of our AOI's actually OWN the name at the moment, or the rights to the name, so it's really up for grabs. First come, first serve.

Of course I'm just being technical.

[Category5Kaiju]

Do people think this will steal the name Francine?

Rule of thumb: when multiple AOIs are at play in the Atlantic, especially 3, never pre-name.

As far as I’m aware, this may never form. Or it may indeed become the F storm. Or it may wait until after the Central Atlantic AOI and become the G storm. Or it may wait until both MDR systems form and become the H storm.

I learned my lesson in 2022 when I kept calling Ian “future Hermine”

[hcane27]

I am of the opinion that Francine will come after all 3 current Stooges pass on.

[TomballEd]

It doesn't need a lemon. It has finally started drilling down to the surface, but it is partially onshore in Texas already looking at CIMMS vorticity. Only the ICON tries to develop it. Ensemble support for a TD or weak TS looks fairly weak.

Still worth watching, if it can drift 100 miles S/SE and get entirely over water, it'd have warm water, decent shear, and it is finally drilling down to the surface. If models change tune and move it offshore, or NHC sees it drifting back offshore, it could get a lemon. Maybe even an orange. But it seems unlikely. But we watch.

The 50% 40% AOI is the best chance for a TC in the Gulf. Not a certainty, the early developers on the ensembles curve N through the Greater Antilles, but some do get into the Gulf.

I gotta admit, I didn't think this would get lemonized. Still very little model support. May never get numbered, but WPC sees fairly major rains near the immediate TX/LA coasts.

[Stratton23]

I dont think the global models are going to see this disturbance all that well, the 18z ICON has a TS riding up the texas coast, 15+ inches over the gulf, but that could just as easily be over land given the ICON has a weird bias of cutting off heavy precipitation along the coastline of any state, its odd

[IcyTundra]

18Z GFS suggesting that this might end up becoming a TS possibly within 24 hours.

[Ubuntwo]

18Z GFS suggesting that this might end up becoming a TS possibly within 24 hours.

Note that the tropical tidbits color scale for US-centric views has 'green' starting at 20 kt instead of 34 kt - so these would be low end TD winds. Still a vorticity uptick this run.

[IcyTundra]

18Z GFS suggesting that this might end up becoming a TS possibly within 24 hours.

Note that the tropical tidbits color scale for US-centric views has 'green' starting at 20 kt instead of 34 kt - so these would be low end TD winds. Still a vorticity uptick this run.

Yeah my mistake I always thought green = TS force winds on TT.

[Steve]

It’s got pretty decent upper level support per late visibles of the Gulf. If we have a TD or TS out of this ICON is the king of the NW Gulf in 2024. Remember before dropping it for a while as much of a surface entity it had a TS right where it is last Saturday due for this upcoming Sunday. It’s back and doesn’t go anywhere for the next 5 days.

Visible Loop
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis_swir

ICON 18z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 83018&fh=6

[zal0phus]

Fingers crossed this steals Francine. I'm hoping the Atlantic invest gets Gordon or Helene

[Steve]

Forgot the upper chart. It’s in a sweet spot with ventilation to its NE.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

Regardless. I don’t think this gets to be much. MJO isn’t right. Phase 4 does have the tendencies for storms off the TX Coast though. And we will probably be in Phase 4 through middle of next week. So that does jibe a little. JMA keeps it in Phase 4 through the 9th so maybe it sits there for a week or more?

[Stratton23]

Steve how would the MJO keep this system stalled for that long? I do see the models keep steering extremely weak over the next 3-4 days though