Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[Frank P]

unless it starts turn more northwesterly it might end up in Mexico... models at this point are obviously struggling.

[Frank P]

Pressure 950mb starting to perhaps more more wnw to nw? h282

[Frank P]

h294 heading for south TX 937mb

[toad strangler]

18z EURO looks way west at h258 will it repeat the 06z? actually more west then 06z

I think you mean GFS

[Frank P]

h 300 Pressure 932 moving NNW heading up towards middle TX coast?
Yeah my bad its the 18z GFS not Euro...

[Stratton23]

GFS Cat 5 around matagorda bay, thank goodness irs long range, because thats one heck of an ugly run

[Frank P]

Probably made landfall below 940mb.

[Spacecoast]

The EC-AIFS had a series of 5 consecutive runs (28th:18z through 30th 0z) that showed the same basic notherneastern Yucatan track as the GFS 18z now shows.

Ironically, EC-AIFS recently dropped development, while the other OPs have now favor this southern track.

[IcyTundra]

The GFS is slower this run which allows ridging to build back in forcing it further west. Hopefully by this time next week we will have a better idea of what is going to happen.

[Teban54]

The EC-AIFS had a series of 5 consecutive runs (28th:18z through 30th 0z) that showed the same basic notherneastern Yucatan track as the GFS 18z now shows.

Ironically, EC-AIFS recently dropped development, while the other OPs have now favor this southern track.

It almost feels like ECAI has the tendency to be the first to sniff out something, only to drop it later at a time when other models are coming onboard. It did the same with the idea that something will form near the Caribbean islands at all.

[MarioProtVI]

Makes landfall ~930 since lowest pressure was actually 929…that’s a Cat 5 right there

[Category5Kaiju]

Makes landfall ~930 since lowest pressure was actually 929…that’s a Cat 5 right there

Random fact: there have been no recorded Category 5 hurricanes to make landfall in Texas at that intensity. That would be a first.

[Ubuntwo]

GEFS has an uptick in support now with a majority of members developing again.

[Kohlecane]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/99wxnvy/gfs-mslp-wind-eus-53.png [/url]
Probably made landfall below 940mb.

This reminds me of GFS runs from 300+ hr from mid 2010's era, la la land. That ridge built back rather quickly and strong over SE/FL. Its quite uncanny to see a 600 mile W shift in just one run, especially since they both show High end Hurricanes with CONUS lanfalls. Also if that were to pan out that might be the largest system I have ever seen depicted by the GFS, I may be wrong on this, But wow!

[MarioProtVI]

Makes landfall ~930 since lowest pressure was actually 929…that’s a Cat 5 right there

Random fact: there have been no recorded Category 5 hurricanes to make landfall in Texas at that intensity. That would be a first.

Actually the strongest was Carla in 1961, but that was 125 kt at landfall. Still close though.

[hurricane2025]

Bastardi said with mojo in phase 4 and 5 setup is like beryl

[IcyTundra]

Bastardi said with mojo in phase 4 and 5 setup is like beryl

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1829606130043273346

[aspen]

The EC-AIFS had a series of 5 consecutive runs (28th:18z through 30th 0z) that showed the same basic notherneastern Yucatan track as the GFS 18z now shows.

Ironically, EC-AIFS recently dropped development, while the other OPs have now favor this southern track.

It almost feels like ECAI has the tendency to be the first to sniff out something, only to drop it later at a time when other models are coming onboard. It did the same with the idea that something will form near the Caribbean islands at all.

Reminds me of the GFS with the Oct-Nov WCAR systems in 2020, where it would pick up on development nearly 2 weeks out, only to drop a few (Zeta and I think Eta) in the mid-range before picking back up on them as development got closer.

[Ubuntwo]

GEFS has an uptick in support now with a majority of members developing again.

It looks like almost every member (85%+) develops by day 10.

[Stormlover70]

Bastardi said with mojo in phase 4 and 5 setup is like beryl

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1829606130043273346

A bold statement and with all due respect a bit of hype considering a storm hasn't even formed.