Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[hurricane2025]

If I was a betting man there won’t be a cold front like that to make a NE turn like that lol

[Ivanhater]

If I was a betting man there won’t be as cold front like that to make a nee turn like that lol

Would be a very common track for September. It doesn't need to be a strong cold front. Just enough to erode the western periphery of the ridge. If it does indeed strengthen and sees a weakness in the Gulf, the Euro would be a classic early September track

[hurricane2025]

That’s not a very common track pushing NE in early Sept lol with how the pattern is

[Ivanhater]

Are you talking about the Euro? It's not pushing NE, it's feeling the weakness over the northern Gulf Coast. Not a strong cold front sweeping it NE, just a weakness. Very common occurrence. Remains to be seen if that actually happens but to say that it is not a classic track would be incorrect



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[Ivanhater]

There is a clear weakness on the 06z GFS but the system never gets going until after the Yucatan. It moves north towards Texas.

There won't be a blocking high protecting the Gulf, but a trough opening a weakness over the entire Gulf coast.

If the models are missing this strengthening sooner, it will move north like the Euro shows into the weakness

[Frank P]

The 06z GFS run has a strong CAT 2 running parallel off the TX coast and making landfall in SWLA.

[gatorcane]

There is a clear weakness on the 06z GFS but the system never gets going until after the Yucatan. It moves north towards Texas.

There won't be a blocking high protecting the Gulf, but a trough opening a weakness over the entire Gulf coast.

If the models are missing this strengthening sooner, it will move north like the Euro shows into the weakness

The 00Z Euro is quite a bit faster than the GFS by day 7 when the system is over the NW Caribbean, allowing it to turn north into the weakness before ridging builds back in over the Gulf and Florida.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

As strong of a signal as you're likely to get this far out on the EPS.

Weird reality where the Euro is significantly more aggressive than the GFS at genesis.

[abajan]

8AM:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. The disturbance is forecast to move westward and
reach the Lesser Antilles on Monday. Thereafter, environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form while it continues moving
westward across the Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter part
of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[DunedinDave]

Feeling better here in Fla but nervous for people in Texas and Louisiana.

[gatorcane]

500MB heights forecast from the 06Z GFS showing a ridge building over Florida and the Gulf next weekend which drives the system west. That’s looking more like you would expect this time of year:

[hurricane2025]

There is a clear weakness on the 06z GFS but the system never gets going until after the Yucatan. It moves north towards Texas.

There won't be a blocking high protecting the Gulf, but a trough opening a weakness over the entire Gulf coast.

If the models are missing this strengthening sooner, it will move north like the Euro shows into the weakness

Mjo is in phase 4 and 5 beryl setup

[otowntiger]

Feeling better here in Fla but nervous for people in Texas and Louisiana.

It’s really too early to be ‘feeling’ one way or the other, honestly.

[hurricane2025]

Feeling better here in Fla but nervous for people in Texas and Louisiana.

It’s really too early to be ‘feeling’ one way or the other, honestly.

Mojo is in phase 4 and 5 this matters with the pattern/setup

[LadyBug72]

There is a clear weakness on the 06z GFS but the system never gets going until after the Yucatan. It moves north towards Texas.

There won't be a blocking high protecting the Gulf, but a trough opening a weakness over the entire Gulf coast.

If the models are missing this strengthening sooner, it will move north like the Euro shows into the weakness

Mjo is in phase 4 and 5 beryl setup

Do you mind explaining the MJO phase? I’m still learning about this.

[hurricane2025]

There is a clear weakness on the 06z GFS but the system never gets going until after the Yucatan. It moves north towards Texas.

There won't be a blocking high protecting the Gulf, but a trough opening a weakness over the entire Gulf coast.

If the models are missing this strengthening sooner, it will move north like the Euro shows into the weakness

Mjo is in phase 4 and 5 beryl setup

Do you mind explaining the MJO phase? I’m still learning about this.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... do-we-care

[LadyBug72]

Mjo is in phase 4 and 5 beryl setup

Do you mind explaining the MJO phase? I’m still learning about this.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... do-we-care

Thank you!

[otowntiger]

Feeling better here in Fla but nervous for people in Texas and Louisiana.

It’s really too early to be ‘feeling’ one way or the other, honestly.

Mojo is in phase 4 and 5 this matters with the pattern/setup

I didn’t say that didn’t matter, but does that have anything to do with where the storm goes? That was the point of my comment.

[Ubuntwo]

Around 51W there is more convection than the 47W turning but is dmin.

https://i.imgur.com/BM7wNrd.gif

This convection has spawned a little area of mid level/500mb spin. GFS and the Euro caught it on the latest runs. Is expected to persist overnight and die out going into Sunday. If convection does not move to the east, late development/no development becomes more likely.

For what it's worth, convection never focused on the eastern area as models expected. Convection has been somewhat linear but a little more concentrated than the last couple nights. This did end up amplifying the western areas of mid level spin more than expected (or the eastern area less than expected), which I believe is why models are even slower with development this morning.


This is still the best our wave has ever looked.

[Ubuntwo]

By hour 144, 50% of 6z EPS members develop vs. 59% on the 0z EPS at the same time. Far from a sure thing, but as with earlier, most developing members get quite strong.